The Great Race: 2016
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 05, 2012, 05:26:50 PM »
« edited: September 19, 2012, 06:09:51 AM by NHI »

Prologue: The Narrow Wins:

Obama/Biden: 270 48.9%
Romney/Ryan: 268 49.4%

2014 Texas Gubernatorial Election: Castro v. Abbott
Castro: 49.15%
Abbott: 48.80%

Let the Games Begin...

More to come...
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2012, 05:34:55 PM »

This is a great idea, though in reality I think in that case Obama would also lose NE-02 realistically, creating a 269-269 electoral vote tie and allowing a GOP House to elect Romney President.

Anyway, because of Obama's narrow win, I'm going to go ahead and call this for Rubio. Doubt the Dems will get a third term in this scenario. Looking forward to seeing how it develops anyway though. Smiley
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2012, 08:15:56 PM »

Go Rubio, but I'm really interested in this.  keep it up man!
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sentinel
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2012, 10:50:17 AM »

Keep it up, but personally, I think that Governor Castro should wait til 2020 to challenge President Rubio if you catch my drift.
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NHI
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2012, 03:32:11 PM »

The Cast: Republicans

The Senator from Kentucky
The Former Governor of New Jersey
The Senator from Florida
The Governor of South Carolina
The Governor of Wisconsin
The Senator from Massachusetts
The Former Senator from Pennsylvania
The Former Governor of Texas

The Democrats:

The Governor of New York
The Governor of Maryland
The Former Governor of Massachusetts
The Governor of Texas
The Senator from New York
The Governor of Montana
The Senator from Minnesota
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2012, 10:56:25 PM »
« Edited: September 07, 2012, 06:31:29 AM by NHI »

The Boring Season, Before the Fun Begins:

Polling:

Republicans:
Christie: 20%
Rubio: 18%
Paul: 17%
Walker: 13%
Brown: 12%
Haley: 10%
Santorum: 4%
Perry: 2%

Democrats:
Cuomo: 24%
O'Malley: 16%
Patrick: 14%
Castro: 14%
Schweitzer: 10%
Gilibrand: 9%
Klobuchar: 7%

Senator Tim Kaine Enters The Race

Perry Fails to Launch a second time.

"We're seeing a thinning of the herd. Rick Perry is gone, Tim Kaine is in. Christie's on top, but will he remain the frontrunner?"

"It's Christie, Rubio and Paul for the GOP nomination. I wouldn't underestimate Brown or Walker, but I think it's the big three for the nod. On the Democratic side Cuomo is the frontrunner, but will Kaine's entrance shakeup the race? I think to a degree."

Pres. Obama Approval Rating:
Approval: 51%
Disapproval: 40%
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2012, 11:28:22 PM »

Cool; I'll be rooting for Rand/Rubio.  Also, what did the 2014 midterms look like?
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2012, 12:03:11 AM »

Pres. Obama Approval Rating:
Approval: 40%
Disapproval: 51%
Why is Obama's approval so low? That's about where it was after the Debt Ceiling Debacle.
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2012, 06:32:01 AM »

Pres. Obama Approval Rating:
Approval: 40%
Disapproval: 51%
Why is Obama's approval so low? That's about where it was after the Debt Ceiling Debacle.

Thanks for catching that. It's reversed by mistake.
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2012, 06:34:58 AM »

Cool; I'll be rooting for Rand/Rubio.  Also, what did the 2014 midterms look like?

Republicans narrowly take the Senate, coupled by some important pickups which includes Executive Councilor Chris Sununu who defeats Inc. Senator Jeanne Shaheen.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2012, 05:48:45 PM »

Cool; I'll be rooting for Rand/Rubio.  Also, what did the 2014 midterms look like?

Republicans narrowly take the Senate, coupled by some important pickups which includes Executive Councilor Chris Sununu who defeats Inc. Senator Jeanne Shaheen.

Cool.  I like Sununu, and apparently I have family that knows him personally.  Anyway, I'm looking forward to more of this; keep it up man!  Wink
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NHI
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2012, 03:33:41 PM »

Paul and Rubio Fight It Out

Kaine leads the Pack Going into Iowa, Underdogs on the Rise

Gillibrand Ends Bid, Endorses Cuomo

Republicans:
Rubio: 26%
Paul: 25%
Walker: 16%
Haley: 12%
Christie: 10%
Brown: 8%
Santorum: 4%


Democrats:
Kaine: 25%
Klobuchar: 19%
Schweitzer: 18%
Castro: 11%
Cuomo: 9%
O'Malley: 6%
Patrick: 4%

Iowa Caucuses:


Republicans: Too Close to Call
Rubio: 25.5%
Paul: 23.8%
Walker: 20.9%
Haley: 14.5%
Christie: 7.2%
Brown: 5.0%
Santorum: 2.2%

Democrats: Klobuchar Projected Winner
Klobuchar: 24.8%
Kaine: 19.4%
Schweitzer: 17.3%
Castro: 16.9%
Cuomo: 10.6%
O'Malley: 5.9%
Patrick: 5.1%

"Tonight we begin the start of a movement. A movement that will take us from Iowa, to New Hampshire, South Carolina and beyond. We were called the underdog, they said we could not win, and tonight I can say this: The cynics were wrong and the people were right!"


"The win by Senator Klobuchar is big. She had very little name recognition going into this campaign, many didn't give her a chance and tonight she pulls out a decent victory. The question now is Andrew Cuomo the frontrunner?" -- John King.

"Yes. He has the money and organization, but many of the party's grassroots are now supporting him. They're backing Castro, Kaine and Schweitzer." -- Paul Begala

"Patrick and O'Malley?" -- John King

"I think they're finished after tonight. They're behind in national polls and not showing particularly well in New Hampshire. Sadly, they remind me of the Tim Pawlenty in 2012. They look good on paper. The party establishment likes them, but they don't get any traction." -- Paul Begala

"On the Republican side, is Rubio still the favorite?" -- John King

"Without question. You know, on the Republican side we may finally have the first candidate since Reagan that is loved by both the conservative party base and the establishment." -- Erick Erickson

"Even if Paul pulls out a win tonight, he's still the frontrunner?" -- John King.

"Yes. I think Paul is a player in this race, but Rubio is favorite. I wouldn't underestimate Christie, especially going into New Hampshire and beyond." -- Erick Erickson

"...and CNN is now able to project that Senator Marco Rubio is projected to win the Republican Iowa Caucuses."

Rubio: 26.0%
Paul: 24.2%
Walker: 20.1%
Haley: 15.4%
Christie: 7.0%
Brown: 5.0%
Santorum: 2.3%

New Hampshire: Republicans (Pre-Iowa)
Christie: 24%
Paul: 21%
Rubio: 19%
Brown: 15%
Walker: 11%
Haley: 5%
Santorum: 1%

New Hampshire: Democrats (Pre-Iowa)
Cuomo: 27%
Kaine: 17%
Klobuchar: 17%
Castro: 15%
Patrick: 10%
Schweitzer: 8%
O'Malley: 4%

"Tonight Marco Rubio asserted himself as the one and only frontrunner for the nomination. Anything less than first tonight would have been seen as a defeat. Now Rand Paul did well, but I think many of the other candidates are background noise at this point. Christie is still viable, Walker, but the rest: Haley, Brown and certainly Santorum are all footnotes in the 2016 race." -- Erick Erickson
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2012, 04:09:44 PM »

I like this timeline! I wonder though: Why doesn't Ryan run for president? Especially after the 2012 election was so close..
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NHI
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2012, 07:42:47 AM »

2012 Republican Nominee Mitt Romney endorses Rubio in NH. "He will do what I could not do."

O'Malley Leaves the Race; Does Not Endorse

NH PRIMARY

"We've got a real race on the Republican side between Senator Marco Rubio, winner of the Iowa Caucuses, and Senator Rand Paul who is gaining strength in the state...The latest CNN poll puts Rubio at the top, with Paul right behind him. Governor Chris Christie, the long favorite for the nomination is now trailing in third, with Scott Brown closely behind him in fourth." -- John King.

"The Christie drop is extraordinary. Here is a guy who had the record, the money, the backing from many in the Republican establishment and he's just doing terribly. Now Iowa wasn't where he invested a lot of time and money, but he's been to New Hampshire, twice as many times as Rubio, and he's just polling in third, compared to a week ago where he led." -- Alex Castellanos

Republicans:
Rubio: 26%
Paul: 23%
Christie: 19%
Brown: 15%
Walker: 10%
Haley: 4%


Democrats:
Cuomo: 24%
Klobuchar: 22%
Kaine: 19%
Patrick: 12%
Castro: 11%
Schweitzer: 9%

"On the Democratic side we've got a surge from Senator Klobuchar." -- John King

"I agree. Senator Klobuchar has really taken off, going from little-to-no name recognition, to winning the Iowa Caucuses. She has a lot of support and I think could go all the way." -- Hilary Rosen.

"While we're discussing the Democratic race, what of some of the other candidates, Governor Castro, Governor Schweitzer, Governor Patrick, and even Senator Kaine. Are they at all in the equation of this primary?" -- John King.

"Hard to say. I think Governor Castro has the potential to comeback when we head into Florida, but it all depends on how New Hampshire goes. If Cuomo does manage to win this election, then this race is changed completely, so the discussion will need to be determined." -- Alex Castellanos.

New Hampshire Primary: Republican
Paul: 25.0%
Rubio: 24.5%
Brown: 20.1%
Christie: 18.9%
Walker: 7.1%
Haley: 3.5%

"Quite a shocking turn of event tonight. The race between Rubio and Paul was acknowledged as being close, and at the start, Paul does lead Senator Rubio, albeit narrowly. However, the real twist tonight is Senator Scott Brown. He is polling in third tonight, with Governor Christie, trailing in fourth." -- John King

"I think there is a sense among many Republicans that while Romney did extremely well last time," -- Alex Castellanos

"He won the popular vote." -- John King

"Right, but there is a sense that he wasn't conservative enough, he didn't subscribe to the Reagan mantra, and in this race Senator Paul and certainly Senator Rubio fit that bill. Governor Christie is a moderate Republican by most accounts, and I think there is a concern among some in the GOP that Christie maybe a problem for the GOP should he win the nomination, a certain polarization problem. I'll also add, Senator Paul has run a terrific campaign in New Hampshire, he's devoted almost all of his resources into this state, so it's not surprising where he's at." -- Alex Castellanos.

"Do you think that Senator Brown, the Senator from Massachusetts, next door to New Hampshire is having an effect on Christie's numbers tonight?" -- John King.

"Sure. There's a split for the quote on quote moderate votes in this primary, and they split that. In a way I see Senator Brown doing what Jon Huntsman could not do in 2012 here in NH. I'm not talking about winning the primary, by siphoning off enough votes from Christie, allowing other candidates to scoop up the remaining votes and run away with the thing." -- Alex Castellanos.

"On the Democrat side, the race like the Republicans is too close to call. Governor Cuomo leads Senator Klobuchar, but it's narrow and appears to be shrinking...CNN can confirm tonight that Governor Patrick will finish in fifth place tonight, Governor Schweitzer will finish in sixth."

Democrats:
Cuomo: 27.5%
Klobuchar: 26.7%
Kaine: 15.1%
Castro: 14.0%
Patrick: 9.8%
Schweitzer: 5.9%

CNN PROJECTS SENATOR RAND PAUL THE WINNER IN THE NH PRIMARY
Paul: 25.9%
Rubio: 23.7%
Brown: 20.0%
Christie: 18.6%
Walker: 7.7%
Haley: 3.1%

"An impressive and frankly important win for Senator Paul. He was able to do what his father, Ron Paul could not do, which was win a state primary." -- John King.

"This is not so much an upset, but a clearing and settling of the field for the rest of this race. After tonight Governor Haley, Governor Walker, and I think Governor Christie are yesterday's news. This race is between Rand Paul and Marco Rubio." -- Alex Castellanos.

"At this time we can still not project a winner in the New Hampshire Primary, but Senator Klobuchar has overtaken Governor Cuomo." -- John King.

Democrats:
Klobuchar: 28.3%
Cuomo: 27.0%
Kaine: 15.1%
Castro: 12.0%
Patrick: 8.6%
Schweitzer: 6.8%

"If Senator Klobuchar prevails tonight, this race is changed completely and I think she'll have enough momentum to sweep the remaining contests going into Super Tuesday." -- Hilary Rosen

CNN PROJECTS SENATOR KLOBUCHAR THE WINNER IN THE NH PRIMARY
Klobuchar: 28.7
Cuomo: 26.0%
Kaine: 15.1%
Castro: 13.0%
Patrick: 8.6%
Schweitzer: 6.8%

Democratic Map:
Klobuchar: 20
Kaine: 11
Schweitzer: 7
Castro: 6
Cuomo: 6
Patrick: 0

Republican Map:
Rubio: 15
Paul: 13
Walker: 7
Haley: 6
Brown: 3
Christie: 2
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2012, 09:52:59 AM »

Patricks Bids Adieu and backs Klobuchar
Governor Haley Endorses Rubio, after ending her bid for the Republican nod.


South Carolina Poll: Republicans
Rubio: 34%
Paul: 25%
Walker: 17%
Christie: 14%
Brown: 8%

South Carolina Poll: Democrats
Kaine: 27%
Klobuchar: 24%
Cuomo: 18%
Castro: 17%
Schweitzer: 10%

"The fields are narrowing for both parties and we are hearing conflicting reports over Governor Cuomo, the once all-but certain frontrunner maybe withdrawing from the race following the vote in Florida, just a few short weeks from now. The Governor is down in South Carolina and is apparently shifting his focus to the Sunshine state, in hopes that he can make a comeback there. As for the race in South Carolina, Senator Klobuchar and Senator Kaine are duking it out for first. With the Senator from Minnesota coming off two impressive wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, the question remains will her momentum be unstoppable?" -- John King

"We've been drifting for decades, piling deficit upon deficit, without thinking about the future. We'll I'm here to say today that unless we start acting and getting serious there won't be a future for us to go to. Under this President alone, America' national debt has climbed to almost $20 Trillion dollars. That's unthinkable, which is why I've proposed to plan to reign in our deficit and it starts by addressing spending that we as a country do really need..." -- Sen. Paul

"I need your help South Carolina. Let's regain the momentum, so we can go onto victory in this state and beyond, and from there come together, united as a party which is not for us to be the lesser two evils, or a party of small ideas. It is time for us a party to re-imagine who we are. A party that a great man once described as bold colors, not pale pastels. Let's be the party that revives hope and dreams and restores the American faith and spirit which has been sapped over the last eight years..." -- Sen. Rubio

South Carolina Primary: Republicans
Rubio: 36.7%
Paul: 23.4%
Walker: 16.0%
Christie: 13.9%
Brown: 9.0%

"As it was widely expected Senator Rubio is the projected winner in the South Carolina primary, with Senator Paul coming in second, followed by Walker, Christie and Brown. Does this reaffirm that this is a Rubio/Paul race?" -- John King

"Without a doubt. I suspect after tomorrow or shortly thereafter we'll see Senator Brown depart, followed by Walker. Christie, didn't put all his eggs into South Carolina and like Cuomo has shifted places like Nevada and Michigan, but the problem is, Florida is next week, Marco Rubio will easily win there, and so by the time we reach Nevada there will have been four contests and Christie has not won any, so I suspect him to be departing sooner rather than later." -- Erick Erickson

"On the race for the Democrats we cannot project a winner, but there has been a shakeup to say the least tonight. Originally the polls showed a tight race between Senator Kaine and Senator Klobuchar, that appears to have changed dramatically." -- John King

South Carolina: Democrats (Too Close to Call)
Kaine: 25.3%
Castro: 23.9%
Klobuchar: 23.8%
Cuomo: 15.9%
Schweitzer: 9.5%

Rubio: 31
Paul: 19
Walker: 11
Brown: 3
Christie: 3

Sen. Kaine Projected Winner in SC
Kaine: 25.9%
Castro: 24.0%
Klobuchar: 23.8%
Cuomo: 15.2%
Schweitzer: 9.9%

Klobuchar: 24
Kaine: 22
Castro: 11
Cuomo: 7
Schweitzer: 7

One Week Later:

Florida Primary: Republicans
Rubio: 52.8%
Paul: 22.6%
Walker: 12.6%
Christie: 10.0%

Florida Primary: Democrats (Too Close to Call)
Cuomo: 28.0%
Castro: 28.0%
Klobuchar: 21.7%
Kaine: 13.9%
Schweitzer: 6.0%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2012, 04:45:28 PM »

I'm aware of the title, but go Klobachar and Paul!
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2012, 08:35:40 PM »

Florida: Democrats
Cuomo: 28.8%
Castro: 28.2%
Klobuchar: 21.5%
Kaine: 12.8%
Schweitzer: 7.7%

"Governor Cuomo won the Florida primary last night, but that is not the main story this evening. The surprise second place finish by Governor Julian Castro of Texas shocked the political sphere when he closed with 28.2% to Governor Cuomo's 28.8%. More to discuss the shape of the race going forward, here with me is Erick Erikson from Redstate.com and CNN Democratic Strategist Donna Brazile." -- John King.

"So tonight, Governor Cuomo, winner in Florida, but what of Julian Castro?" -- John King.

"Many saw last night as what Bill Clinton did in New Hampshire back in 1992. He didn't win the state, but his second place finish sucked up all the energy that is launched him into the national spotlight and towards the nomination, I think we maybe seeing that tonight." -- Erick Erickson.

"The test for Julian Castro, now that he is seen among the big leagues, is to break from the pack. He needs to have another stand-out moment and of course win the next primary which is Nevada." -- Donna Brazile

Nevada Caucuses: (Republicans)
Paul: 36.8%
Rubio: 30.0%
Walker: 17.1%
Christie: 14.4%

Nevada Caucuses: (Democrats)
Castro: 39.6%
Klobuchar: 38.9%
Cuomo: 16.0%
Kaine: 4.6%

"I'm not stupid. I see the writing on the wall, and I know enough to put my country first ahead of my own political ambitions. So it is today that I end my campaign for President of the United States." -- Gov. Chris Christie

"I suspend my campaign and endorse Senator Marco Rubio to be the next President of the United States." -- Gov. Scott Walker

Pre-Super Tuesday Contests: Michigan, Colorado, Minnesota, Arizona

Arizona:
Rubio: 50.0%
Paul: 45.5%

Klobuchar: 38.7%
Castro: 36.2%
Cuomo: 17.9%
Kaine: 6.2%

Minnesota:
Paul: 52.2%
Rubio: 45.9%

Klobuchar: 59.9%
Cuomo: 18.0%
Castro: 14.2%
Kaine: 6.9%

Colorado:
Paul: 49.8%
Rubio: 48.2%

Castro: 44.4%
Klobuchar: 37.1%
Cuomo: 11.8%
Kaine: 5.7%

Michigan:
Rubio: 58.8%
Paul: 40.2%

Klobuchar: 50.7%
Cuomo: 20.2%
Castro: 19.9%
Kaine: 7.3%

Democratic Nomination Polling:
Klobuchar: 41%
Castro: 32%
Cuomo: 15%
Kaine: 6%

Republican Nomination Polling:
Rubio: 54%
Paul: 42%
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sentinel
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« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2012, 09:08:21 AM »

The problem with your timeline is that I know what the result is going to be because of the title, otherwise I like it Smiley
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2012, 10:13:58 AM »

Courtesy of Walker's endorsement, I'd be voting for Rubio! Great read so far, please keep it going!
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NHI
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« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2012, 07:18:12 PM »

Super Tuesday: (REPUBLICANS) AR, LA, AK, ID, IN, MA, VT, RI, CT, MD, DE, DC, IL, MT, SD, ND, WY, NJ, OR, HI, GUAM, Am. Vir. Is.
The Battle for the Nomination

"Senators Rubio and Paul are heading for a showdown in Super Tuesday. The two candidates have ardent backers and by many accounts are dividing the Republican Party. Can the wounds be healed when the nominee is decided?" -- John King

"Yes. We will rally around the nominee, be it Rubio or Paul. I will tell you an idea that is floated around in conservative tickets and that is the notion of the dream ticket. Rubio/Paul or vice versa." --- Erick Erickson

Arkansas: 35 Delegates
Paul: 50.0%
Rubio: 49.6%

Louisiana: 44 Delegates
Rubio: 51.1%
Paul: 47.8%

Alaska: 18 Delegates
Paul: 57.7%
Rubio: 41.2%

Idaho: 25 Delegates
Paul: 52.2%
Rubio: 46.8%

Indiana: 47 Delegates
Rubio: 56.6%
Paul: 43.8%

Massachusetts: 60 Delegates
Rubio: 66.6%
Paul: 32.9%

Vermont: 22 Delegates
Rubio: 49.9%
Paul: 49.5%

Rhode Island: 42 Delegates
Rubio: 58.8%
Paul: 40.0%

Connecticut: 37 Delegates
Rubio: 60.0%
Paul: 39.1%

Maryland: 24 Delegates
Rubio: 74.5%
Paul: 24.5%

Delaware: 29 Delegates
Rubio: 75.0%
Paul: 23.0%

DC: 6 Delegates
Paul: 55.5%
Rubio: 44.6%

Illinois: 36 Delegates
Paul: 50.2%
Rubio: 49.1%

Montana: 24 Delegates
Paul: 59.9%
Rubio: 38.8%%

South Dakota: 15 Delegates
Rubio: 56.6%
Paul: 43.3%

North Dakota: 17 Delegates
Paul: 51.1%
Rubio: 48.8%

Wyoming: 14 Delegates
Paul: 52.1%
Rubio: 46.5%

New Jersey: 78 Delegates
Rubio: 57.7%
Paul: 41.6%

Oregon: 12 Delegates
Rubio: 52.2%
Paul: 48.0%

Hawaii: 18 Delegates
Rubio: 59.9%
Paul: 39.6%

Guam: 10 Delegates
Rubio: 88.8%
Paul: 9.9%

Am. Vir. Is:
Rubio: 56.6%
Paul: 43.3%
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NHI
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« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2012, 10:00:30 PM »

I'm skipping ahead for pacing and am changing the narrative to a degree. In short Senator Rubio secures the Republican Nomination, despite a strong a showing by Senator Rand Paul. On the Democratic Side a resurgent Gov. Castro proved to a be a challenge for Sen. Klobuchar, but she managed to defeat him by the conclusion of the primaries in June and become the first woman to become the nominee of a major political party...

The Next Phase: Rubio v. Klobuchar

Matchup: June 2016
Rubio: 48%
Klobuchar: 45%

Sen. Rand Paul Chosen to be VP
"I humbly accept the call to serve, and join Senator Rubio in this campaign which is more than about winning an election for a political party, but about saving America and returning America to the principles and vision described by our founders." -- Sen. Rand Paul is Detroit, Michigan

Rubio: 244
Klobuchar: 232
Tossup: 62

KLOBUCHAR/WARNER TICKET
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2012, 10:52:23 PM »

So its Klobuchar vs Rubio instead of Castro vs Rubio? Not as interesting but still good. Keep it up.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2012, 08:55:08 PM »

I'm guessing an easy Rubio win, followed by Castro vs. Rubio in 2020.
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