Would Schweitzer vs Christie flip the map around?

[Skill and Chance]

Schweitzer would probably go out of his way to pick a New Englander and Christie a westerner for VP, which would minimize the effect.  Still, I think there could be a substantial shift centered on rural, non-Southern areas:

Narrow Christie Win

Narrow Schweitzer Win

[NHI]

Christie/Thune: 279

Schweitzer/Klobuchar: 259

Christie/Sandoval: 273

Schweitzer/Gilibrand: 265

[Peter the Lefty]

Hmm...I think Antonio's right.  Ideologies are too predominant over personalities for this to happen.  Schweitzer would win Montana (for obvious reasons), barring a massive drop in his approval ratings between now and 2016. and possibly Missouri.  Maybe West Virginia, too.  Christie would take New Jersey, assuming he's still popular by then.  I'm not sure about Pennsylvania, since Corbett is also a "Northeast straight-talking Republican" and his approval ratings are in the toilet, so many of the (few) people who do vote based on personalities might be reminded of Corbett when they see Christie.  Connecticut would probably still be Schweitzer, since Christie seems way too...Jersey Not nearly enough charm for them.  Huntsman, however, would have a good chance of taking Connecticut, I think.  Christie might also be able to do well in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. 

[Peter the Lefty]

The one match-up I could see flipping the map around is Chafee vs. Landrieu, but Chafee isn't even a Republican anymore. 

[Yelnoc]

"Flip the map around" was a bit of an exaggeration, but I do think something like this is not completely out of the question.

The west and south swing D while the midwest and northeast swing R.  Christie is not very appealing to southerners; all of the adults I know irl think he's a rude bully. These are all lifetime Republican voters. I expect a trend away from the Republican party would be particularly pronounced in Appalachia; while Schweitzer might not take all of WV, TN, and KY I do think he would make the race close in that region.

I admit I don't know as much about the rust belt as I do about the sun belt, but my gut feeling is those states are trending conservative concurrent with the shrink in union power (among other things). I don't know about Christie winning New Jersey, but then if he only serves one term and starts campaigning after the midterms, then perhaps he won't have been in office long enough to damage his popularity too much.