PPP NC/OH polls to be released tonight; Obama surging past 2008 margins

[Marokai Backbeat]

I just think my standards have become a little too high for what I expect from others. So I apologize. I should remember what board this is.

[MorningInAmerica]

I just think my standards have become a little too high for what I expect from others. So I apologize. I should remember what board this is.

Heh, yeah, that's exactly it. Your standards are too high. Again, you started this convo.

[Adam Griffin]

These numbers appear to me much better than they may appear on the surface. You have a wider margin than the margin was in 2008 with a D+4 sample, as opposed to a D+8 sample. Could we see an 8-10 point MoV for Obama if turnout if D+8 this year? Perhaps Slick Willie's sweet nothings wafted into the ears of some of those SEOH blue-collar folk.

To paraphrase John McCain, the fundamentals of the Democratic Party are strong.

[Marokai Backbeat]

For a poll taken right after the Democratic convention, it really only has Obama doing two points better than the last PPP poll, taken about a month ago. Sure it's better news for Obama than Romney, but this is probably one of Romney's better polls in the last couple days.

Uh no, at this point any expansion one way or the other is pivotal, given how small the slice of the undecided electorate is becoming. Plus, if Romney's support has not grown, then it means that the RNC didn't really sway anybody.

Obama also hit 50% in this poll, which is a pretty big deal.

Not to mention, (though it's not as if TJ needs reminding of this, I just feel it's worth saying) this is Ohio. This isn't a state with a particularly high Obama ceiling. It's a state that has always had a Republican bent with a south that has more in common, culturally,with West Virginia than the rest of Ohio. If he actually ends up winning by 5%, especially after four loud and bitchy years in government, that's a pretty comfortable win.

[Lief 🗽]

There's really no way in which a poll showing Obama leading Romney by 5% in Ohio in September can be spun as anything but bad news for Romney.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

In a note change from petty arguments above, when are the North Carolina pol results being released. I'm more I terested in that than in Ohio, seeing as it was the site of the DNC.

[DrScholl]

Makes sense, seeing as the hints about private polling indicated that those numbers were good for Obama.

[Marokai Backbeat]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/obama-leads-by-5-in-ohio.html

Hot.

[pbrower2a]

These numbers appear to me much better than they may appear on the surface. You have a wider margin than the margin was in 2008 with a D+4 sample, as opposed to a D+8 sample. Could we see an 8-10 point MoV for Obama if turnout if D+8 this year? Perhaps Slick Willie's sweet nothings wafted into the ears of some of those SEOH blue-collar folk.

To paraphrase John McCain, the fundamentals of the Democratic Party are strong.

If that (southeast Ohio) is where President Obama made his gains, then Mitt Romney may be collapsing in some places where conventional wisdom has assumed that President Obama just could not win. Bill Clinton has much credibility in Appalachia and the Ozarks.

This is an election in which both Presidential and VP nominees of the two main parties are unambiguous d@mnyankees. Bill Clinton did far better than Gore, Kerry, or Obama in the Mountain South.  Southeastern Ohio is much more like West Virginia than like southern Michigan.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I just think my standards have become a little too high for what I expect from others. So I apologize. I should remember what board this is.

Heh, yeah, that's exactly it. Your standards are too high. Again, you started this convo.

You don't have to be trying to prove Marokai right.  Sometimes the best thing you can do is follow the wisdom of Thumper's father, a wisdom both of you would benefit from I think,

[Devils30]

I think Obama probably gets a better bounce in states like CO, FL, VA with larger minority populations. Anything more than 5 up in Ohio is unrealistic.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No matter what the margin is, Romney's numbers are still stuck in the mid 40s, and Obama is already has a majority. If Romney wins OH it's going to be by a razor thin margin, like MO last time.

[MorningInAmerica]

I just think my standards have become a little too high for what I expect from others. So I apologize. I should remember what board this is.

Heh, yeah, that's exactly it. Your standards are too high. Again, you started this convo.

You don't have to be trying to prove Marokai right.  Sometimes the best thing you can do is follow the wisdom of Thumper's father, a wisdom both of you would benefit from I think,

I apologize that this thread was hijacked by an argument between myself and Marokai. It's just that his apology was purposefully back-handed and passive aggressive, "my standards are too high," and I know what that was implying. But seriously, sorry to the thread starter, IDS Legislator Griffin, for partaking in taking this thread off track.

Re: PPP poll news, a 5 point lead in Ohio is of course bad news for Romney. And getting to 270 becomes difficult (though not completely impmlausible) without it. But based on their teasing tweets, and the convo around the boards, and just the fact that it's PPP, I was expecting something close to a 10 pt lead. I was pleased to see I was a bit off.

[J. J.]

Obamamentum marches in Ohio! Unstoppable marching!

That jobs report sure did smother Obama's bounce.

Etc.

When did PPP poll?

[Adam Griffin]

I apologize that this thread was hijacked by an argument between myself and Marokai. It's just that his apology was purposefully back handed and passive, "my standards are too high," and I know what that was implying. But seriously, sorry to the thread starter, IDS Legislator Griffin, for partaking in taking this thread off track.

Re: PPP poll news, a 5 point lead in Ohio is of course bad news for Romney. And getting to 270 becomes difficult (though not completely impmlausible) without it. But based on their teasing tweets, and the convo around the boards, and just the fact that it's PPP, I was expecting something close to a 10 pt lead. I was pleased to see I was a bit off.

Damn your apology! I was just about to close the thread until I read that.

In reality, Obama is performing very well in Ohio if this poll is accurate. When you look at the 2008 margin (4.6) and the electorate sample (D+8) and compare it to this margin (5) with a D+4 sample, you can inference that Obama would be sitting at a ~9-point margin of victory with the same electorate. Damn near double. As I said in the other thread and as pbrower hinted at, I think these gains have come from SE OH and are the result of Clinton's magic. This would be the only part of the state where Obama would have previously been underperforming that could swing enough to affect the statewide result in OH by this much.

[Adam Griffin]

September 7th - 9th. Entirely post-convention.

[MorningInAmerica]

September 7th - 9th. Entirely post-convention.

So two full days of polling post jobs report, and say maybe half a day on Friday (allowing time for the information to disseminate). It would be interesting to see the daily breakdown. I'd like to know if Obama's got a moderate bounce of about 5 points nationally, and jobs report had no effect, or was he leading (as Nate Silver suggested) by 8-10 pts at one point, and then jobs report averaged him out at 5. But of course, the daily samples MoE would be so high that it may not be that telling.

[Sbane]

I actually think it's more that the entire Cleveland/Akron/Canton metro as well as the Mahoning valley have stayed about the same as 2008, or in the case of this poll, has swung to Obama from 2008. Similar deal in SE Ohio but there aren't that many people there to make a difference. I think the Columbus area will be swinging back as much as the national average and perhaps Cincinnati as well.

[Skill and Chance]

I actually think it's more that the entire Cleveland/Akron/Canton metro as well as the Mahoning valley have stayed about the same as 2008, or in the case of this poll, has swung to Obama from 2008. Similar deal in SE Ohio but there aren't that many people there to make a difference. I think the Columbus area will be swinging back as much as the national average and perhaps Cincinnati as well.

But remember that suspiciously close WV poll last month?  I think that points to the (weird IMO) Appalachia hypothesis.

[Sbane]

I think Obama probably gets a better bounce in states like CO, FL, VA with larger minority populations. Anything more than 5 up in Ohio is unrealistic.

Indeed, that is what the goal of the convention was. Still, Clinton probably moved voters in places like Ohio and helped motivate minority voters as well.

[Sbane]

I was merely trying to say Obama must be doing well in more areas than just the SE because I do believe he will lose some ground in the Columbus metro where he did great and perhaps in the Cincinnati area as well. This would mean there is a heavy Obama trend in Cleveland and other industrial areas in the NE. That is my hypothesis.

[Skill and Chance]

I was merely trying to say Obama must be doing well in more areas than just the SE because I do believe he will lose some ground in the Columbus metro where he did great and perhaps in the Cincinnati area as well. This would mean there is a heavy Obama trend in Cleveland and other industrial areas in the NE. That is my hypothesis.

Appalachia also has interesting implications for VA.  Romney could be running behind McCain in rural VA and well ahead of 2008 in NOVA

[Adam Griffin]

I was merely trying to say Obama must be doing well in more areas than just the SE because I do believe he will lose some ground in the Columbus metro where he did great and perhaps in the Cincinnati area as well. This would mean there is a heavy Obama trend in Cleveland and other industrial areas in the NE. That is my hypothesis.

I definitely agree with this. What I meant in regards to SE OH is that I think the greatest shift could be coming from there. It wouldn't add up to any huge percentage of the population (and therefore not be a large part of the change in and of itself), but I don't see how Obama could have gained in this scenario without gained in that area by at least a few points, as that is the area where Democrats have the softest floor when compared to their potential ceiling.

Maybe something like a 1-point gain in the cities, a 2-3 point gain in the metro areas/suburbs, and a 4-6 point gain in Appalachia. But, I'm just pulling these numbers out of my ass. Is there a regional breakdown in the poll? I'll have to look.

[sg0508]

Convention bounce. We have to wait for the 2nd round of waves following the DNC. I think the biggest thing that has to concern the Romney camp is that you figured they would be on much, much stronger ground by now in NC than they are. 

The president won the state in 2008 with a very strong youth turnout and minority turnout, plus a depressed conservative turnout.

That in itself is one of the biggest reasons I think Obama is much closer than a lot of us think to actually putting this race away.  If he can hold his own in debate #1 (the one most Americans watch), I think it's over.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Obama leads 49-48 in NC. They just tweeted it. Last poll 48-48 tie.