SurveyUSA / Civitas Poll of NC: Romney 53% Obama 43% with REGISTERED VOTERS

[MorningInAmerica]

http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-flash-poll-after-rnc-romney-ahead/

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Romney-Poll-xtab.pdf

Caveat: Poll was taken September 4-6, so only 2/3 surveys were taken AFTER Michelle Obama's speech, and only 1/3 surveys were taken after Bill Clinton's speech. Any effect from Obama's speech, or the August job report, is not included.

Obama: 43% (-5)
Romney: 53% (+4)

Romney led 49-48% in their July poll.

Partisan sample of the poll is D+15.

Romney favorability:
Favorable: 50%
Unfavorable: 40%

Obama favorability:
Favorable: 42%
Unfavorable: 40%

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Talk about garbage polling... !

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

LOL

Why would they even release this? Don't they know this will damage their reputation, which already isn't that great?

[technical support]

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Romney-Poll-xtab.pdf

Caveat: Poll was taken September 4-6, so only 2/3 surveys were taken AFTER Michelle Obama's speech, and only 1/3 surveys was taken after Bill Clinton's speech. Any effect from Obama's speech, or the August job report, is not included.

Obama: 43% (-5)
Romney: 53% (+4)

Romney led 49-48% in their July poll.

Partisan sample of the poll is D+15.

Romney favorability:
Favorable: 50%
Unfavorable: 40%

Obama favorability:
Favorable: 42%
Unfavorable: 40%

you kidding right?

[Lief 🗽]

Romney leads by 10 points in a poll with a D+15% sample.

wtf

[Supersonic]

The true numbers.

[MorningInAmerica]

Don't they know this will damage their reputation, which already isn't that great?

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Romney-Poll-xtab.pdf

Caveat: Poll was taken September 4-6, so only 2/3 surveys were taken AFTER Michelle Obama's speech, and only 1/3 surveys was taken after Bill Clinton's speech. Any effect from Obama's speech, or the August job report, is not included.

Obama: 43% (-5)
Romney: 53% (+4)

Romney led 49-48% in their July poll.

Partisan sample of the poll is D+15.

Romney favorability:
Favorable: 50%
Unfavorable: 40%

Obama favorability:
Favorable: 42%
Unfavorable: 40%

you kidding right?

SurveyUSA was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2010, according to the Daily Kos / NyTimes Jesus, Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/. Dems on here usually sing their praises and talk about how their top line is good, despite screwy crosstabs (but only when they like the results). There's a much easier, and smarter way to attack this poll. It doesn't account for the full effect of any potential DNC bounce, and is a bit outdated (compared to the PPP poll taken Sep 7-9)

[krazen1211]

Great news!

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

[...]
There's a much easier, and smarter way to attack this poll. It doesn't account for the full effect of any potential DNC bounce.

>Implying that Obama was more than ten points behind between the conventions

[MorningInAmerica]

[...]
There's a much easier, and smarter way to attack this poll. It doesn't account for the full effect of any potential DNC bounce.

>Implying that Obama was more than ten points behind between the conventions

I'm completely fine with people picking this poll apart (and if you look at the internals, there's plenty to pick apart). My only problem is with people alleging SurveyUSA is a bad firm. Their results, and Nate Silver say otherwise.

[Earthling]

This is a poll for North Carolina, right?

Romney wins the youth-vote (18-34) 60%-39% but loses the middle-age-vote (50-64) 42%-52%?
He gets 30% of the black vote? And 28% of all Democrats?
And he loses the moderates by 10%?

[Yank2133]

Republicans are getting desperate if this poll gives them hope.

[Wiz in Wis]

Remember, on average 1 in 20 polls will be garbage.. and 1 in 100 will be complete lunacy, and that's if the firm conducting the polling is good. 95% confidence intervals and all that.

These internals are simply, clearly, dramatically wrong, so the macro results are pretty easy to throw away as a swing and a miss.

Babe Ruth struck out plenty, and SurveyUSA can lay an egg and still be a good firm.

[pa2011]

How could they even publish a poll showing Romney getting 30 percent of the black vote and 60 percent of the 18 to 30 vote. What this really does is just confirm what we already suspect -- Civitas polls are irrelevant for rest of the cycle. Can't be taken seriously, at all.

[DrScholl]

Romney getting 30% of the black vote is not possible at all. I know Republicans think they are going to win big, but they shouldn't totally discount reality. This poll is not realistic.

[Lief 🗽]

Is this a Civitas or a SUSA poll?

[Earthling]

Apart from the link posted here, I can't find this poll on the websites of SurveyUSA and Civitas.

Pretty weird.

And why would SUSA do a RV-poll after the conventions? Just days before posting their own polls which will likely be LV.

[MorningInAmerica]

Apart from the link posted here, I can't find this poll on the websites of SurveyUSA and Civitas.

Pretty weird.

And why would SUSA do a RV-poll after the conventions? Just days before posting their own polls which will likely be LV.

http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-flash-poll-after-rnc-romney-ahead/

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[Earthling]

Okay, thank you.

So it is a North Carolina poll.

But the results are off. Way off. I can see Romney winning NC, but not with the numbers in this poll. They don't make sense.

[MorningInAmerica]

Yes, thanks for reminding me that I didn't include that initially in the title. Edited to fix it.

For the record, I don't see Romney winning NC by 10 at this point either. But it's a poll, by a known firm with a good track record, which is why it was posted.

[Craigo]

Remember, on average 1 in 20 polls will be garbage.. and 1 in 100 will be complete lunacy, and that's if the firm conducting the polling is good. 95% confidence intervals and all that.

These internals are simply, clearly, dramatically wrong, so the macro results are pretty easy to throw away as a swing and a miss.

Babe Ruth struck out plenty, and SurveyUSA can lay an egg and still be a good firm.

This. Random error can be a bitch sometimes.

[Umengus]

susa can be erratic...

So probably an outlier

[Lief 🗽]

People should check out the SUSA poll taken of NC almost four years ago today.

[Niemeyerite]

susa can be erratic...

So probably an outlier

Even Umengus realizes this poll is an outlier. No reasons to defend SUSA this time, MiA.

[MorningInAmerica]

Even Umengus realizes this poll is an outlier. No reasons to defend SUSA this time, MiA.

Seriously Julio, if you had read what I said you would see that I also think this poll is an outlier. Just four posts up I said:

For the record, I don't see Romney winning NC by 10 at this point either. But it's a poll, by a known firm with a good track record, which is why it was posted.

And on the first page of this thread, I'm the one that pointed out the screwy crosstabs:

I'm completely fine with people picking this poll apart (and if you look at the internals, there's plenty to pick apart). My only problem is with people alleging SurveyUSA is a bad firm. Their results, and Nate Silver say otherwise.

Either you're just trying to pick a fight, or you genuinely didn't read. I'm not defending this poll. I'm defending this pollster, whom, like I said, has a good track record according to Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/