States where Romney or Obama win every county

[mileslunn]

Despite the divide in terms of red states and blue states, there are very few states in which every county is won by one party or another.

For Obama I would say
Hawaii
Vermont
Rhode Island

Possibly
Massachusetts
Connecticut

For Romney
Oklahoma

Maybe
Utah

In the case of Massachusetts, Plymouth County is the only one I see Romney having a shot at as it is his home state so I wouldn't be surprised if he does better than Bush did in either 2000 and 2004 although still losing the state by over 15 points nonetheless.  For Connecticut, Litchfeld County is the only one he might have a shot at.  In all other states not mentioned, I pretty sure Romney will win at least one county.  Even though Obama swept New Hampshire in 2008, I suspect Romney will win at least one county even if he loses the state.  As for Utah, the only one I can see Obama winning is Summit County since much like Blaine County in Idaho and Teton County in Wyoming it sort of its own universe and votes much differently than the rest of the state.  Any thoughts on this?

[King]

No maybe about Utah.  It will be the only state where Romney improves on McCain.

[Skill and Chance]

No maybe about Utah.  It will be the only state where Romney improves on McCain.

Huh?  This is a 50-45 race nationally, not 60-35!

[mileslunn]

No maybe about Utah.  It will be the only state where Romney improves on McCain.

I agree Obama will lose the other two counties he win in 2008, but Summit County is somewhat questionable simply as it is where Park City and many ski resorts are and the people who live in those are often wealthy liberal transplants from one of the coasts.  I believe over 40% are not religious while only 20% mormon in Summit County thus much like Blaine County in Idaho and Teton County in Wyoming, its voting patterns have little resemblance to the state as a whole.  Off course Romney could win it, I am just saying it is the one county in Utah up for grabs.

[King]

No maybe about Utah.  It will be the only state where Romney improves on McCain.

Huh?  This is a 50-45 race nationally, not 60-35!

What's your point?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Romney: Oklahoma, Utah.

Obama: Rhode Island, Hawaii. Vermont is a possibility, but Romney will probably win Essex.

[mileslunn]

Romney: Oklahoma, Utah.

Obama: Rhode Island, Hawaii. Vermont is a possibility, but Romney will probably win Essex.

I agree Essex County is the most likely county to go for Romney, but I believe Obama won this by over 15 points in 2008 so I doubt it will swing that hard in favour of Romney.  Vermont has been trending heavily Democrat over the past 20 years so although I think Romney will do better than McCain, I think he will do worse than Bush jr. in either 2000 or 2004, Dole in 1996, and Bush sr. in 1992.  I think Massachusetts and Connecticut are both possibilities as in 2000 and 2004 both Gore and Kerry swept all counties although granted it is Romney's home state I think he will do slightly better than Bush did either time.  In the case of Connecticut, Gore swept the state, while Kerry narrowly lost Litchfeld County so based on the current polling I think Litchfeld county could go either way.  I don't think though Obama will sweep New Hampshire again like he did in 2008, even if he wins the state. 

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Oklahoma for Romney, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Hawaii for Obama.

[5280]

Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah and Wyoming for Romney.

Hawaii, Rhode Island and Vermont for Obama.

[mileslunn]

Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah and Wyoming for Romney.

Hawaii, Rhode Island and Vermont for Obama.

I am pretty sure Obama will take Thurston County in Nebraska as Native Americans make up over 50% of the population although their turnout tends to be poor.  It was the only county Kerry won in 2004 in Nebraska.  In Wyoming, I think Obama will take Teton County as it has a large ski resort (Jackson Hole) and ski resorts are always islands of liberalism regardless of how conservative the state is.  Still I agree Romney may take all of those particularly in Nebraska if turnout is low amongst Native Americans (I don't think many will vote for Romney though). 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obama will sweep VT, CT, MA, and RI.  

Romney will sweep OK.  I really can't see where else he has a chance except MAYBE West Virginia.  Wouldn't that be something?  

[mileslunn]

Obama will sweep VT, CT, MA, and RI.  

Romney will sweep OK.  I really can't see where else he has a chance except MAYBE West Virginia.  Wouldn't that be something?  

I think Utah is possible, although not nearly as certain as Oklahoma.  West Virginia would be interesting as this has swung heavily to the GOP in the last decade or so despite once being a very solid Democrat state.  Even Dukakis won here despite being clobbered and losing now safe blue states like Illinois and California.  Massachusetts and Connecticut are maybes but there is only one county in each I could see Romney realistically winning. 

[Vosem]

No maybe about Utah.  It will be the only state where Romney improves on McCain.

Huh?  This is a 50-45 race nationally, not 60-35!

What's your point?

His point is that 'only' was used, which seems unusual because the race is more Republican than '08 now, and some of the fundamentals of the September/October race favor a trend towards Romney (probably not strong enough for a victory, but strong enough to do better than McCain in the vast majority of states).

And, as for Utah, maybe, but isn't Grand County trending left fast, or am I imagining things? It'll probably vote Romney anyway, but still.

[mileslunn]

No maybe about Utah.  It will be the only state where Romney improves on McCain.

Huh?  This is a 50-45 race nationally, not 60-35!

What's your point?

His point is that 'only' was used, which seems unusual because the race is more Republican than '08 now, and some of the fundamentals of the September/October race favor a trend towards Romney (probably not strong enough for a victory, but strong enough to do better than McCain in the vast majority of states).

And, as for Utah, maybe, but isn't Grand County trending left fast, or am I imagining things? It'll probably vote Romney anyway, but still.

I think Romney will take Grand County as well as Salt Lake County.  Summit County has always been the bluest county in Utah.  I don't think it is trending that left as it has always been more competitive than the rest of the state.  I believe it has a large mining industry thus many unionized workers never mind I believe it is one of the few asides Summit County where mormons are not the majority.  If I am not mistaken, I believe many of Italian and Greek descent which are two groups that are generally large in the Northeast, but not Utah and also tend to be more likely to go Democrat although less so today than 50 years ago. 

[gotapresent]

No maybe about Utah.  It will be the only state where Romney improves on McCain.

Romney's going to win Indiana, which McCain lost.

[Eraserhead]

No maybe about Utah.  It will be the only state where Romney improves on McCain.

Even if Obama wins by an '08ish margin, I doubt Romney will do worse than McCain in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Wisconsin, etc.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

No maybe about Utah.  It will be the only state where Romney improves on McCain.

I agree Obama will lose the other two counties he win in 2008, but Summit County is somewhat questionable simply as it is where Park City and many ski resorts are and the people who live in those are often wealthy liberal transplants from one of the coasts.  I believe over 40% are not religious while only 20% mormon in Summit County thus much like Blaine County in Idaho and Teton County in Wyoming, its voting patterns have little resemblance to the state as a whole.  Off course Romney could win it, I am just saying it is the one county in Utah up for grabs.

Supposedly Romney's bounce there is not only due to Mormons, but because they love his work in the 2002 Olympics.

Romney wins every county in Idaho and Oklahoma, Obama wins every county in RI and HI for sure and probably Vermont. Plymouth County, MA probably goes narrowly to Romney.

[Rainbow_Crown]

No, Blaine County, Idaho is Obama country. It voted for gay marriage with 66.2% voting yes and Obama won 65.71% of the vote. He's gonna win by 20+ points guaranteed. The other two are probably gone, with Teton County likely Romney