MA: Kimball Political Consulting: Brown slightly ahead, despite Warren bounce

[Miles]

New Poll: Massachusetts Senator by Other Source on 2012-9-9

Summary: D: 45%, R: 46%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[sg0508]

Scott has to keep creeping up the upper 40s and then I like his chance to avoid that last minute democratic "come home" effect and survive.

[RogueBeaver]

His race, his terms, his lead against a flawed candidate on the defensive. I'm not worried.

[Kevin]

His race, his terms, his lead against a flawed candidate on the defensive. I'm not worried.

It's MA arguebly one of the most D state's in the country. Brown should be worried despite Liz Warren's deep flaws.

[colincb]

The Kimball poll is flawed with 48% of responses from the 60+ age cohort vs 15% in each of the last 2 presidential elections and with only 12% from the 18-39 cohorts which should be 35-40% of the sample.  Both Obama and Warren get their worst favorability ratings in the youngest cohorts in this poll which should be their best and which is contrary to other polling(and 2008 results for Obama.  IOW, highly suspect poll.

The Dems won by +25-26% in each of the last two presidential elections and if Obama gets in that ballpark again, then Brown is likely toast barring some yet-to-be committed gaffe by Warren. I suspect Obama is up 20+ margin currently if a better sampling was done (which would be better than 2008 at the same point) and that Warren is up slightly within the MOE. Could just be a bounce  for Warren and the race is certainly winnable for Brown, but if I had to pick a winner, it would be Warren in a tight race.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Brown in a tight race, I'd say, but Warren's not at all dead.

[Mister Twister]

If Warren loses, she still might be in the senate next year. There is a good chance John Kerry will be the next Sec. of State. That leaves his senate seat vacant and I'm sure it will be filled by Warren. So Brown and Warren could be colleagues next year.

[Brittain33]

Senate seats in Mass. are filled by special election, not appointment, since 2004.

[You kip if you want to...]

Senate seats in Mass. are filled by special election, not appointment, since 2004.

Massachusetts with two Republican senators would be a sign of America officially entering bizarro world.

[Хahar 🤔]

Senate seats in Mass. are filled by special election, not appointment, since 2004.

Technically they're filled by both.

[morgieb]

Senate seats in Mass. are filled by special election, not appointment, since 2004.

Massachusetts with two Republican senators would be a sign of America officially entering bizarro world.

Yeah, there's no-one not named Scott Brown who's a Republican in Massachusetts. We will pick it up so as long we don't get a lazy candidate.

[Badger]

Where do we believe the undecided and overwhelmingly pro-obama voters will go to in the last week of the election?

[Gass3268]

Where do we believe the undecided and overwhelmingly pro-obama voters will go to in the last week of the election?

Ding Ding Ding we have a winner!

[sg0508]

Brown's problem in the race besides the "democrats coming home" effect is that in the end, undecided voters usually swing towards the challenger, even if the challenger ran a poor campaign.  Thus, a 47-44% Brown lead with 8-9% undecided in the final week could easily turn into a 51-49% loss.

He MUST be polling (in my opinion) at least 48% in the final week.

Just out of curiosity, I'm not sure if there is any other 3rd party candidate running, but if there is, even 1% to that candidate could make the difference

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Just out of curiosity, I'm not sure if there is any other 3rd party candidate running, but if there is, even 1% to that candidate could make the difference

According to Green Papers, there's an independent, Bill Cimbrelo, on the ballot.  A look at his website indicates that to the extent he gets votes from people who actually favor him rather than are simply using his ballot line to indicate they don't like either Brown or Warren, he probably takes from Warren, as he's definitely a leftist, but not a wacky far-leftist.

I do like his website image asserting the other two are two sides of the same coin.