Paul, Santorum, Gingrich, and Huntsman: Mitt Romney's downfall

[Maxwell]

One Day, Four Primaries (Democrats)

Booker wins Texas, Shumlin wins the other three primaries that day.

Texas:
Cory Booker: 40.82%
Gavin Newsom: 35.21%
Peter Shumlin: 23.97%

Ohio:
Peter Shumlin: 36.12%
Cory Booker: 35.85%
Gavin Newsom: 28.03%

Vermont:
Peter Shumlin: 91.52%
Cory Booker: 5.12%
Gavin Newsom: 3.36%

Rhode Island:
Peter Shumlin: 74.93%
Cory Booker: 14.21%
Gavin Newsom: 10.86%

Overall Delegates:
Cory Booker: 964
Gavin Newsom: 890
Peter Shumlin: 717
Un-allocated: 185

National Polls:
Cory Booker: 35%
Peter Shumlin: 35%
Gavin Newsom: 25%
Undecided: 5%

Presidential Poll w/Booker:
Cory Booker: 47%
Rand Paul: 44%
Undecided: 9%

Presidential Poll w/Shumlin:
Rand Paul: 46%
Peter Shumlin: 42%
Undecided: 12%

Presidential Poll w/Newsom:
Rand Paul: 50%
Gavin Newsom: 44%
Undecided: 6%

Mississippi:
Cory Booker: 50%
Peter Shumlin: 28%
Gavin Newsom: 17%
Undecided: 5%

Pennsylvania:
Peter Shumlin: 40%
Cory Booker: 40%
Gavin Newsom: 14%
Undecided: 6%



"It looks like the Democrats are heading towards a brokered convention, where one victor will claim the nomination in a convention fight. However, the momentum of the race is starting to shift, from long frontrunner Senator Booker to Governor Shumlin, who pulled a big surprise in Ohio and might even win Pennsylvania in a couple days if he gets close in Mississippi, a state he would've probably never even thought of getting 10% in earlier in the primaries. Newsom is fading immensely, and it might help Governor Shumlin if he dropped out, but Newsom seems to be on the sidelines on this one, even though, ultimately, he's more in favor of his own push." - Chris Matthews

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Booker 2020!

[Maxwell]

Paul picks Sandoval as his VP!

"It seems early, but I feel it is time already: I am picking my Vice President, because he represents a kind of a leadership that I think would be good as President, should anything happen, and, after all, isn't that what a Vice President is all about? So everyone, give a big round of applause for the next Vice President, Brian Sandoval!"



"Thank you Thank you, and I know this country is ready for the continuation of our change because we know it works. It's been working for eight years, turning around what happened in the twelve years before that. Let me tell you: we are going to make it continue, we don't to go back to that dark dark era!"

National Polling w/Booker:
Paul/Sandoval: 46%
Booker/Generic: 45%
Undecided: 9%

"Now Paul leads his top contender by picking the moderate and very former Governor of Nevada Brian Sandoval as his VP. However, its still close, with each match-up within the margin of error or close to the margin of error." - Wolf Blitzer

Meanwhile, on the Democrat side...

Booker wins Mississippi, by surprisingly low margins.

Mississippi:
Cory Booker: 48.42%
Peter Shumlin: 36.98%
Gavin Newsom: 14.60%

In a deadly sign towards Booker, Shumlin upsets in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania:
Peter Shumlin: 45.23%
Cory Booker: 41.88%
Gavin Newsom: 12.89%

Newsom withdraws from the race, does not make an endorsement, rather, really endorses both men.



"I am leaving the Presidential race, as my prospects have dried up. I will not be making an endorsement, but not the way you think. I think both of these candidates are brilliantly qualified for the job of the president, far more than the extremist objectivism of our Vice President, and they are both worthy of an endorsement. Since I cannot do a double endorsement here, neither deserve one, unless a winner in the race becomes clear. Until then, I will not hop into the endorsement ring."

National Polling:
Cory Booker: 49%
Peter Shumlin: 47%
Undecided: 4%

Indiana:
Cory Booker: 50%
Peter Shumlin: 42%
Undecided: 8%

North Carolina:
Cory Booker: 46%
Peter Shumlin: 45%
Undecided: 9%

[Maxwell]

Booker pulls off with Indiana, Shumlin pulls a upset in North Carolina

Indiana:
Cory Booker: 52.58%
Peter Shumlin: 47.42%

North Carolina:
Peter Shumlin: 51.25%
Cory Booker: 48.75%

Shumlin scores in Nebraska, Booker skids by in West Virginia

Nebraska:
Peter Shumlin: 68.21%
Cory Booker: 31.79%

West Virginia:
Cory Booker: 50.08%
Peter Shumlin: 49.92%

Shumentum continues, sweeping Oregon, Kentucky, Montana

Oregon:
Peter Shumlin: 70.82%
Cory Booker: 29.18%

Kentucky:
Peter Shumlin: 55.23%
Cory Booker: 44.77%

Montana:
Peter Shumlin: 65.46%
Cory Booker: 34.54%

Shumlin takes Idaho, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Maine by varying margins

Idaho:
Peter Shumlin: 62.84%
Cory Booker: 37.16%

New Mexico:
Peter Shumlin: 58.19%
Cory Booker: 41.81%

South Dakota:
Peter Shumlin: 73.35%
Cory Booker: 26.65%

Maine:
Peter Shumlin: 85.21%
Cory Booker: 14.79%

Overall Delegates:
Cory Booker: 1229
Peter Shumlin: 1085
Un-allocated: 1075



"For the first time since Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford, we have no idea who is going to come out as the nominee, this time on the Democratic side. While Booker has a small lead in delegates, Shumlin has grassroots and momentum, so look for something and maybe a deal to be made." - Chris Wallace

Presidential Polls w/Booker:
Rand Paul/Brian Sandoval: 48%
Cory Booker/???: 45%
Undecided: 7%

Presidential Polls w/Shumlin:
Rand Paul/Brian Sandoval: 47%
Peter Shumlin/???: 43%
Undecided: 10%

Presidential Polls w/Both:
Rand Paul/Brian Sandoval: 47%
Cory Booker/Peter Shumlin: 44%
Undecided: 9%

Presidential Polls w/Neither:
Rand Paul/Brian Sandoval: 45%
Generic Compromise Candidates: 40%
Undecided: 15%

[Niemeyerite]

Brokered convention!! I hope Shumlin manages to get the nod, but it's unlikely, as Newsom/Begich delegates are probably closer to Booker in terms of ideology.

[Jerseyrules]

Awesome stuff!  Rand 2020!

Also, if Rand wins in 2020, is it possible Huntsman might be brought on board as a de facto (or even the official) Secretary of State?  Will he be to Paul what Clinton is to Obama ITTL (election-wise, etc)

[Maxwell]

Shumlin announces possible VP pick



"My friend Cory Booker has been making the rounds with the delegates, and so have I. I have heard one thing from them, and that is moderacy. That is how the republicans won in 2012, and thats how we should win in 2020. That concerns me to a point, but I realize and accept it. Which is why if I am nominated for President of the United States, my Vice Presidential pick will be the Democratic Senator from Oklahoma Brad Henry!"



"It was starting to look for a second like Booker was going to take the nomination due to some of the recent polling, but it looks like Shumlin is back on top with a shocking, somewhat strong pick. Henry, while not as conservative as Oklahoma democrats tend to be, certainly is more moderate, and it could sway the tide for Senator Shumlin." - Wolf Blitzer

[Niemeyerite]

Are you from OK? If you are, what's your opinion about Henry?

[Maxwell]

Are you from OK? If you are, what's your opinion about Henry?

I am, and I thought Brad Henry was, generally, a strong governor who held to his centrist ideas. He was a bit to the right on fiscal issues, but he didn't just try to go socially conservative to get elected, noted by his veto of anti-abortion legislation that got over-turned TWICE.

Bill Clinton to Arkansas is Brad Henry to Oklahoma in my view.

[Maxwell]

Democratic National Convention

1st Ballot Delegate Count:
Overall Delegates:
Peter Shumlin: 2007
Cory Booker: 2006
Unallocated: 200

"On the first ballot, we don't even have a nominee still... However, it is a lot closer than we thought it was going to be. It seems that the DNC is now proposing a compromise candidate..."


Former Senator and head of the DNC Bill Nelson


"As a compromise candidate we would like to nominate the Democratic Governor of Texas, Julian Castro!"



The pick of Castro is originally well-received, however...



"Look, I'm proud Castro got to where he was, but why did he? Because an incompetent governor decided to stretch his reign to king-like time period. He won't win Texas for a second term, and he especially won't win America. We need a candidate who can win, that can bring change to America, and that's what I bring as a candidate."



"Both Mr. Booker and Mr. Castro represent stagnation in America. They aren't going to make much of a difference. I, however, will, and I have the experience that neither of these men have."

Second Ballot:
Peter Shumlin: 2152
Cory Booker: 1382
Julian Castro: 621
Unallocated: 58

"Shumlin is currently pushing his margin of victory and the number of delegates he has, while the addition of Castro innumerably hurts Booker. This is starting to get clearer and clearer as we look at it. It seems like Cory Booker is going to lose this nomination...."

Third Ballot:
Peter Shumlin: 2211
Cory Booker: 1528
Julian Castro: 451
Unallocated: 23



"In spite of the original delegate count working against him, it seemed that Booker didn't have the grassroots, the momentum, or the confidence to gain the nomination, and it looks like Shumlin has swiped what he thought was rightfully his. Nevertheless, Booker plans to squash the beef and endorse the nominee enthusiastically. " - Chris Matthews



"AMERICA... we need this man! This man will change things for America. I know, I competed against him. Most people didn't know who he was before he ran. Now, people know him as the man who completely turned around and won the nomination, and I fully support him. I know he can make a difference because he already has, and he will be a great nominee and Brad Henry a great Vice Presidential nominee!"

"The way the democrats came together for this guy was absolutely beautiful, polls out of the Convention are already showing a giant bounce from the DNC, with Shumlin/Henry leading Paul/Sandoval by 5-10 points! This is the way to do a National Convention!" - Chris Matthews

Rasmussen:
Shumlin/Henry: 50%
Paul/Sandoval: 45%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 3%

PPP:
Shumlin/Henry: 53%
Paul/Sandoval: 43%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 3%

Map Tossups

Map No Tossups

[Niemeyerite]

Oh, great!

BTW, it's nice to see a map with so many toss-ups. Makes things really interesting.

I'd like to see some polls from Oklahoma

[Maxwell]

Oh, great!

BTW, it's nice to see a map with so many toss-ups. Makes things really interesting.

I'd like to see some polls from Oklahoma

Polls from Oklahoma are much narrower than expected, but the lead is still near 10 points for Paul/Sandoval.

[JerryArkansas]

What's up with Arkansas.

[Maxwell]

What's up with Arkansas.

Brad Henry is a moderate Democrat, Arkansas is still decently democratic (Obama just happens to be the absolute wrong Democrat for Arkansas)

[Niemeyerite]

We deserve a big update!!

[Maxwell]

Pre-First Debate Coverage



"Shumlin is going to pull out of this debate with a strong victory. Rand Paul is continuing to be wrong on the middle class, wrong on families, and wrong on social issues. He won't be able to connect with the American people like Mr. Shumlin can! Paul identifies himself with the hyper partisan Tea Party, Shumlin identifies himself with the people!"



"I'm very proud of the work we've done in Washington, and I believe Rand is as much of a factor in that success as I was. I think the media is under-evaluating his ability to debate, and I'm not normally a media denier. He's a firm believer in economic freedom and civil liberties, something that all Americans believe in when you look in the polls."



"Now I know Mr. Paul and Mr. Sandoval are trying to parade themselves as a bunch of good old moderates. They don't identify with the extremist, war-mongering faction of their party, they're oppose some of their parties core ideas and fighting for you. Well, that's just not the truth. Rand Paul, besides the war issue, had one of the most conservative voting records in the history of the Senate. Brian Sandoval as governor cut into education severely. These guys aren't moderates, their budget hunters, wanting to cut you and your family while keeping the benefits up in Washington. Shumlin-Henry wants to help the average American, not hurt them in the favor of more tax cuts."



"Now recent polls are showing the race a bit more even than before, but the lead is still in the hands of Shumlin and Henry, who have proven to be a surprisingly potent duo, with Shumlin running up the margins in the New England area, while Henry helping immensly in the mid-south. Their weakness? The west, where Paul and Sandoval are lapping them by a wide margin (minus California). We will be going to the Debate in a second but first, lets just take a look at those maps and polls."

National Polls:
Peter Shumlin/Brad Henry: 49%
Rand Paul/Brian Sandoval: 47%
Undecided: 4%

Who Do You Think Will Win The Debate?:
Peter Shumin: 68%
Rand Paul: 22%
Not Sure: 10%

Toss-Ups Map:

No Toss-Ups Map:

[Niemeyerite]

 The debate will be crucial for Paul.

[Maxwell]

Debate was a tie!

Who won the debate?

CNN:
Rand Paul: 47%
Peter Shumlin: 46%
Not Sure: 7%

CBS:
Tie: 40%
Rand Paul: 30%
Peter Shumlin: 30%

CNBC:
Rand Paul: 47%
Peter Shumlin: 44%
Not Sure: 9%



"While Paul surprises in the debate, it still looks like a draw in the polling, both in the debate polls and in the national polls. Most say that Vice President Paul won on the economy, drug issues, and trade, while Shumlin won on class, healthcare, immigration, and environmental, with other issues within the margin of error. The debate helps Paul, but not by much."

National Polls:
Rand Paul/Brian Sandoval: 49%
Peter Shumlin/Brad Henry: 48%
Undecided: 3%

Who Do You Think Will Win the VP Debate?
Brian Sandoval: 55%
Brad Henry: 35%
Undecided: 10%

Who Do You Think Will Win the Second Debate?
Peter Shumlin: 53%
Rand Paul: 40%
Undecided: 7%

[Niemeyerite]

Is Henry a good speaker? Because I think Sandoval is mediocre.

[Maxwell]

Henry is also fairly ordinary as a public speaker.

[Niemeyerite]

UPdate!!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Who is the Justice Party running this time around?

[Maxwell]

President-Elect Peter Shumlin/ Vice President-Elect Brad Henry: 51.5% 273 Electors
Vice President Rand Paul/Former Governor Brian Sandoval: 46.9% 265 Electors
Others: 1.6%

"It appears that Shumlin's strategy of picking a Southern Democrat managed to work. While he lost New Mexico and Iowa, two states he thought was expected to pick up, he managed to pull a surprise in Oklahoma, where Brad Henry spent a lot of time exclusively, mainly because was the very popular senator from the state. This was a complete shock to the Paul campaign, who fully expected to lose the popular vote while winning the electoral vote due to sliced margins in the south and Shumlin's glorified margins in the Northeast. Many were expecting a possible Shumlin win, none were expecting one of this level." - John King



"I congratulate my opponent and hope for another great four years of American prosperity, but that does not mean i will compromise on my principles. I am still a fighter for individual liberty and freedom, and that message will not be marginalized as long as America exists. We understand this on a basic level: its why I was not voted in. I am honored by the system we have, even if it didn't bring favor to me. Peter Shumlin is a very qualified man and I hope that he does the job well."

Peter Shumlin Approval:
Approve: 62%
Disapprove: 13%
Undecided: 25%

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

How did Shumlin lose NH? And how'd he win the PV by 5 points, but only the EV by 3?

[Maxwell]

How did Shumlin lose NH? And how'd he win the PV by 5 points, but only the EV by 3?

Since Huntsman, NH had been traveling heavily Republican, even though Rand Paul only won it by a half a point. He won the popular vote by 5 points by slicing his margins in the south and boosting his margins immensely in most of the north east and in Illinois and California.