Paul, Santorum, Gingrich, and Huntsman: Mitt Romney's downfall

[Maxwell]

The First Debate



"Inspite of the rule of 15%, Rick Santorum had managed to strike a deal where, since he had performed at 20% at one point, he would be allowed one debate and see where it goes from there, should his poll numbers go up to 12%, he would be allowed to the next debate, and 15% to the one afteward. This requires a great performance on his behalf, we're about to see what happens with the candidates. Right now, Huntsman is back in the lead, but by a very thin margin, leading a possible resurgence of the incumbent president should he do well." - Wolf Blitzer

National Polling before the Debate:
Huntsman/Paul: 44%
Obama/Biden: 43%
Santorum/Bachmann:8%
Other: 0%
Undecided: 5%

Bob Scheiffer - "As you all know, the economy hasn't quite returned yet... We're still stuck in the 8% unemployment range. What be all of your respective plans in order to shift this economy and why would they be better than your opponents, first Governor Huntsman."

Jon Huntsman - "Well, my plan is simple: cutting taxes, flattening the tax code, and getting rid of regulations harmful to businesses. I want to slice all of the loopholes so that our tax system is more efficient, in order to cut taxes for the people. I feel like this would free up the economy, which is what we need right now: the freer the markets the freer the people. We also need to make serious cuts, as this debt is a serious issue. I've taken the Ron Paul plank of proprosing a one trillion dollar cut in the budget in the first year. I'm aware that some programs might not get the funding they want, but my feeling is that we need to cut back not only the dollars and cents to make these programs more efficient, but in order to save our country from economic collapse we need to make these cuts. I also am at odds with the Senator from Pennyslvania in that I will also make cuts to the Military as president. Defense is out of the question, but our military doesn't need to be everywhere it needs to be, plus its time to come home from Afghanistan. Through this, we will make our ways towards a balanced budget."

Bob Scheiffer - "Senator Santorum?"

Rick Santorum - "Well that's all nice, but we need an economic plan that benefits families. Huntsman makes all this talk of cutting loopholes, but doesn't mention the negative effects that cutting all of those loopholes I have. I propose a lot of the same principles, but in different ways. I would not cut those loop holes, families need them to build a traditional family. I would also not cut into the military, because that puts our military in serious danger. What the Governor is talking about is pure Ron Paul-ism, and that is why I left the republican party!"

Bob Scheiffer - "Your response, Mr.Huntsman?"

Jon Huntsman - "Well Senator Santorum, it's nice to see you basically admitting that you don't care about the fiscal future of this country, because the facts are there: we have a 16 trillion dollar deficit, we need to make serious action now in order to get rid of it. Cutting loopholes would allow for us to pay for it. Just screaming out about how tax cuts are going to solve the problem isn't going to solve the problem. We also need cuts in spending (including the military), and cuts in the loopholes. Don't just take my word for it, look at his record: 5 trillion added to the deficit under the Bush administration. He voted with Bush nearly 100% of the time. I don't want to go the route of George W. Bush, I want to go my own route and fix this countries economic problems."

Bob Scheiffer - "President Obama, you haven't gotten much of a chance to speak yet, have you?"

Barack Obama - "Doesn't look like it Bob, haha. Look, changing the course half way through isn't the way to go. We're still fighting for our economic future. We were in a recession when I came into office, and we are still pushing our way through. Without my policies, the stimilus, the bailouts, we wouldn't be where we are now. We'd be worse off. And that is why I think both of these men are wrong on their economic proposals, and we need to continue what we've been doing."

Bob Scheiffer - "So you are proposing another stimulus"

Barack Obama: "That is correct."


"From that snippet of the debate, the president, inspite of a huge group of reasons to vote for him given by the DNC, dwelled in non-specifics, never quite able to make his plans clear. His ideas were broad and easy to snipe at. Governor Huntsman and Senator Santorum took their shots at his plans, and It seemed like a very weak debate for the President. Watch for his poll numbers to take a dip or a dive, depending on how the public views it." - Anderson Cooper

National Polls:
Huntsman/Paul: 47%
Obama/Biden: 40%
Santorum/Bachmann: 8%
Other: 0%
Undecided: 5%

[Jerseyrules]

This is really interesting man; keep it up!  (Kinda wish we'd nominated Huntsman now; then Santorum's political career would be over IOTL too )

[Maxwell]

Election Night



"The Polls are starting to close in the first states around this nation, and we are already starting to get some calls: The President has won Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachussets, New York, Maryland, and Delaware:"

Vermont:
Barack Obama: 58.32%
Jon Huntsman: 38.23%
Rick Santorum: 1.45%
Other: 2%

Massachussets (Santorum not on the Ballot):
Barack Obama: 56.35%
Jon Huntsman: 42.65%
Other: 1%

Rhode Island:
Barack Obama: 57.82%
Jon Huntsman: 41.54%
Rick Santorum: 0.64%

New York:
Barack Obama: 60.00%
Jon Huntsman: 39.58%
Others: 0.42%

Maryland:
Barack Obama: 54.45%
Jon Huntsman: 37.83%
Rick Santorum: 7.72%

Delaware:
Barack Obama: 60.12%
Jon Huntsman: 32.23%
Rick Santorum: 5.65%

D.C.:
Barack Obama: 93.24%
Jon Huntsman: 7.76%

"While Jon Huntsman pulls out with Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Viriginia, North Carolina, and surprisingly early on in the race, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. So far to close to call is New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, and Ohio.

Georgia:
Jon Huntsman: 48.53%
Barack OBama: 35.23%
Rick Santorum: 16.24%

South Carolina:
Jon Huntsman: 47.24%
Barack Obama: 33.65%
Rick Santorum: 19.11%

West Virginia:
Jon Huntsman: 52.21%
Barack Obama: 35.26%
Rick Santorum: 12.53%

Virginia:
Jon Huntsman: 50.52%
Barack Obama: 41.24%
Rick Santorum: 8.24%

North Carolina:
Jon Huntsman: 50.20%
Barack Obama: 40.27%
Rick Santorum: 9.53%

New Hampshire:
Jon Huntsman: 53.45%
Barack Obama: 45.12%
Rick Santorum: 1.43%

Pennsylvania:
Jon Huntsman: 48.35%
Barack Obama: 43.10%
Rick Santorum: 8.55%

New Jersey:
Barack Obama: 48.45%
Jon Huntsman: 47.99%
Rick Santorum: 3.66%

Conneticut:
Jon Huntsman: 50.24%
Barack Obama: 49.76%

Maine:
Barack Obama: 49.52%
Jon Huntsman: 47.98%
Rick Santorum: 1.54%

Ohio:
Jon Huntsman: 47.58%
Barack Obama: 45.24%
Rick Santorum: 7.18%

The Map So Far:

"States the president shouldn't have to be competitive in he is, but here's the most shocking one: Maine. Maine's polls weren't even close until the last two weeks. Now its turning into a toss-up state over night. This doesn't look good for the incumbent's re-election chances, pointing to 1980 where Reagan and Carter were, not necessarily to their qualities and qualifications. And it will certainly be a closer election than that one, to be sure."

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Why does it seem like Samtorum is sapping more support from Obama than from Huntsman?

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Why does it seem like Samtorum is sapping more support from Obama than from Huntsman?

Yeah this is a little odd. Obama performing at 2008 like levels in safe blue states and then losing swing/lean-D states when Santorum would be splitting the right-wing vote?

[Maxwell]

Why does it seem like Samtorum is sapping more support from Obama than from Huntsman?

Yeah this is a little odd. Obama performing at 2008 like levels in safe blue states and then losing swing/lean-D states when Santorum would be splitting the right-wing vote?

Well Huntsman is draining big amounts of Independent and Democratic votes in swing states from Obama because he seems more independent to them (reason why Santorum is performing easily better in Southern states), but in a lot of safe D states they see him for how a lot of people on this board do see him: really conservative.

[Maxwell]

"Well, now it seems we have some more calls for the night, first, The President wins Illinois and Maine.

Illinois:
Barack Obama: 54.35%
Jon Huntsman: 38.54%
Rick Santorum: 8.11%

Maine:
Barack Obama: 50.23%
Jon Huntsman: 48.24%
Rick Santorum: 1.53%

Albeit one elector WILL go to Governor Huntsman

while Jon Huntsman wins Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, and Oklahoma:

Kentucky:
Jon Huntsman: 50.45%
Barack Obama: 37.56%
Rick Santorum: 12.99%

Tennessee:
Jon Huntsman: 45.33%
Barack Obama: 33.45%
Rick Santorum: 21.22%

Indiana:
Jon Huntsman: 50.34%
Barack Obama: 41.22%
Rick Santorum: 8.44%

Missouri:
Jon Huntsman: 49.53%
Barack Obama: 42.82%
Rick Santorum: 7.65%

Michigan:
Jon Huntsman: 47.44%
Barack Obama: 42.23%
Rick Santorum: 10.33%

Oklahoma:
Jon Huntsman: 38.43%
Barack Obama: 33.85%
Rick Santorum: 27.78%

And the first calls for the night for Senator Santorum are the two states he's led the whole time: Mississippi and Alabama.

Alabama:
Rick Santorum: 43.55%
Barack Obama: 37.43%
Jon Huntsman: 19.02%

Mississippi:
Rick Santorum: 36.55%
Barack Obama: 32.32%
Jon Huntsman: 31.13%

Several states remain to be called, and some surprising ones: Arkansas, Louisana, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Florida.

Arkansas:
Jon Huntsman: 35.45%
Barack Obama: 34.44%
Rick Santorum: 30.11%

Lousiana:
Rick Santorum: 34.43%
Jon Huntsman: 32.79%
Barack Obama: 32.78%

Iowa:
Jon Huntsman: 43.43%
Barack Obama: 42.82%
Rick Santorum: 13.75%

Minnesota:
Jon Huntsman: 42.44%
Barack Obama: 42.02%
Rick Santorum: 15.56%

Wisconsin:
Jon Huntsman: 45.45%
Barack Obama: 44.90%
Rick Santorum: 9.65%

Jon Huntsman: 146
Barack Obama: 86
Rick Santorum: 15

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Its looking like a bad night for Obama...can't wait to see how this turns out Will it continue after the election and into the next Presidents term?

[Maxwell]

Its looking like a bad night for Obama...can't wait to see how this turns out Will it continue after the election and into the next Presidents term?

I'm thinking it will continue until 2020 or 2024 should I have the energy for it.

[Maxwell]

Final Election Result

Jon Huntsman wins in a mandate, but not a landslide.

Jon Huntsman/Rand Paul: 48.85% 339
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 43.08% 183
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann: 8.07% 16

"There were some shocking wins, Santorum pulled off two states and the most conservative sector of Nebraska, Jon Huntsman pulled New Jersey, Minnesota, Connecticut, and an elector from Maine, and the President managed to win Ohio and the biggest shocker of all Louisiana, a state that otherwise would've been 2 to 1 Republican if not for a Santorum run. Even then, this election result seemed set in stone since the end of the primaries: Jon Huntsman will be our next president." - Wolf Blitzer

[morgieb]

What the hell happened in Ohio?

[Maxwell]

What the hell happened in Ohio?

Santorum drew a tad too many people towards the end and Obama polled out by skin of his teeth.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Switching Pennsylvania and Ohio might be more realistic, in my opinion. Connecticut and Minnesota seem unlikely to go for Huntsman, even in this election. Otherwise, the results are fine.

[Simfan34]

Wouldn't I been just intolerable during this whole thing? But that is a beautiful map. Huntsman wins my state? I'm in tears even now.

[LiberalJunkie]

No republican would win atleast by that much with a third party conservative.

[Niemeyerite]

If blue-states realize Huntsman is a conservative, as you said before, how's he carrying Conn., Oregon, Minnesota and Maine-1? And, more important, doesn't Santorum have some kind of favourite-son effect in PA? Because he's delievered Ohio (a toss-up state) to Obama, but not Pennsylvania (lean dem state), where he comes from.

Anyway, this is good It'll be interesting to read about how Huntsman works with the Senate and the House. Will he become a true conservative or will his main support come from the moderates -RINOS and DINOS?

[Jerseyrules]

If blue-states realize Huntsman is a conservative, as you said before, how's he carrying Conn., Oregon, Minnesota and Maine-1? And, more important, doesn't Santorum have some kind of favourite-son effect in PA? Because he's delievered Ohio (a toss-up state) to Obama, but not Pennsylvania (lean dem state), where he comes from.

Anyway, this is good It'll be interesting to read about how Huntsman works with the Senate and the House. Will he become a true conservative or will his main support come from the moderates -RINOS and DINOS?

I don't know about Santorum in PA; look at the 06 senate race there (losing by 20 points as an incumbent) and many believe he pulled out of the primaries when he did to save his political career, because if he hadn't he might've lost the PA primary as many polls predicted.  Pennsylvania doesn't really like him that much IMO.

But yeah, I'm really looking forward to seeing more of this, keep it coming man!

[Niemeyerite]

If blue-states realize Huntsman is a conservative, as you said before, how's he carrying Conn., Oregon, Minnesota and Maine-1? And, more important, doesn't Santorum have some kind of favourite-son effect in PA? Because he's delievered Ohio (a toss-up state) to Obama, but not Pennsylvania (lean dem state), where he comes from.

Anyway, this is good It'll be interesting to read about how Huntsman works with the Senate and the House. Will he become a true conservative or will his main support come from the moderates -RINOS and DINOS?

There' still like a 20-30% of people who love Santorum in the state.

I don't know about Santorum in PA; look at the 06 senate race there (losing by 20 points as an incumbent) and many believe he pulled out of the primaries when he did to save his political career, because if he hadn't he might've lost the PA primary as many polls predicted.  Pennsylvania doesn't really like him that much IMO.

But yeah, I'm really looking forward to seeing more of this, keep it coming man!

[MATTROSE94]

Did the Republicans get control of the Senate and keep the House in this TL?

[Maxwell]

Short Wrap-Up of Huntsman's Term: It's a Miracle!

Approval at the beginning of term: 67%
Approval right before the democratic primaries: 60%
Lowest Approval: 51% (Fighting with Democrats in Congress for the ultimate repeal of The Affordable Care Act)
Highest Approval: 69% (Unemployment hits 5%)

Unemployment now: 4.6%

Polls against probable Democratic opponents:

Vs. Cuomo:
Jon Huntsman: 50%
Andrew Cuomo: 35%
Undecided: 15%

Vs. Warner:
Jon Huntsman: 51%
Mark Warner: 36%
Undecided: 13%

Vs. O'Malley:
Jon Huntsman: 56%
Martin O'Malley: 30%
Undecided: 14%

Vs. Warren:
Jon Huntsman: 60%
Elizabeth: 28%
Undecided: 12%

Vs. Hickenlooper:
Jon Huntsman: 50%
John Hickenlooper: 30%
Undecided: 20%

Vs. Schweitzer:
Jon Huntsman: 49%
Brian Schweitzer: 34%
Undecided: 17%

Vs. Clinton:
Jon Huntsman: 50%
Hillary Clinton: 40%
Undecided: 10%

"It's clear that Hillary Clinton, who has made it seem as if it is pretty unlikely that she will run, has the best shot at beating President Huntsman, and even she trails by 10 points. She is followed by Governor Cuomo, Senator Warner (who hasn't yet announced), Former Governor Schweitzer, who trail by 15 points. While they are all very distant, most anything is possible. Hickenlooper trails by 20 points, but 20 percent of the people are undecided because nobody knows him, so even he is a possibility. Every other candidate who seems to have thrown their name in, are joke candidates at this point, especially Warren, who is leading in the polls for the Democrat primaries very early in the season, even though she barely won a spot as a House of Representatives in Massachusetts in 2014 after beating former Congressmen Joesph Kennedy in the primary for Barney Frank's old spot."

Democratic Primary Polls as of March 2015 (without Mark Warner):
Congresswoman Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Governor Andrew Cuomo: 15%
Former Governor Brian Schweitzer: 14%
Governor John Hickenlooper: 9%
Former Governor Martin O'Malley: 6%
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 3%
Mayor Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 34%

Democratic Primary Polls as of March 2015 (with Mark Warner):
Congresswoman Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Senator Mark Warner: 16%
Governor Andrew Cuomo: 13%
Former Governor Brian Schweitzer: 12%
Governor John Hickenlooper: 7%
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 3%
Mayor Julian Castro: ~0%
Undecided: 31%

[Maxwell]

Hilldog makes it very clear she isn't running, Mark Warner jumps into the game!



"I am announcing my candidacy for the presidency of the United States because I can stop the gridlock in Washington and bring healthcare reform to the country, all while keeping towards a message of change through moderation!" - Mark Warner, announcing his candidacy.



"I am delighted that people would want me to run, but I will not be making that leap. As the great Lyndon Baines Johnson, I will not run, nor will I accept, your nomination to be President of the United States of America." - Hillary Clinton

"Two game changers here: Mark Warner, a moderate, can nullify Jon Huntsman stature as the mdoerate conservative president by being even more centrist than he is. A smart move, plus American since the repeal have been more and more favorable towards healthcare reform, which is a strong plank of his candidacy. However, the Democrats just lost their absolute best chance at changing the white house: Hillary Clinton has chosen not to run for the presidency. This shakes things up, and along with some serious gaffes from Congresswoman Warren and a couple of controversies involving Governor Cuomo, it looks like Warner is surging to the leader of the pack." - Wolf Blitzer

Democratic Primary Polls:
Mark Warner: 19%
Brian Schweitzer: 15%
Andrew Cuomo: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
John Hickenlooper: 8%
Joe Biden: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 32%

Iowa Polls:
Brian Schweitzer: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
John Hickenlooper: 14%
Joe Biden: 6%
Mark Warner: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
Andrew Cuomo: 1%
Undecided: 32%

New Hampshire:
Andrew Cuomo: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Julian Castro: 8%
Mark Warner: 7%
John Hickenlooper: 7%
Brian Schweitzer: 5%
Joe Biden: 1%
Undecided: 36%

South Carolina:
Mark Warner: 32%
Andrew Cuomo: 12%
Julian Castro: 6%
John Hickenlooper: 6%
Brian Schweitzer: 2%
Joe Biden: 2%
Elizabeth Warren: 2%
Undecided: 38%

[Maxwell]

September: Last, but perhaps Least, Congressman Antonio Villaraigosa joins the race



"I will be running for the Presidency of the United States because I have a unique vision for the United States!" - Antonio Villaraigosa

"Congressman Villaraigosa makes a very late entry into the race, and it's really impacted his chances too: Some polls during the late spring/early summer months had him polling as high as five percent with the possibility of more, but now that momentum has drained and he is in Julian Castro/Joe Biden land with around 1% of the vote, and in some states, no supporters. But who knows, that was what was thought of the fate for President Huntsman, and look how he turned it around? so his candidacy, even if it ends predictably, should be an interesting one to watch. Can we get a check up on the current state of the race otherwise?" - Wolf Blitzer

"Well, it looks like Mark Warner is holding on to his lead, though Andrew Cuomo is now starting to breathe down his neck again, due to a tour of his touting his record as Governor of New York. Elizabeth Warren has been tumbling down: she's polling at around 5% now where she was in contention for frontrunner status just a couple weeks ago. This is partially due to gaffes, partially due to democrats realizing she is completely unelectable on the national stage, and partially due to some poor early debate performances. Don't count out Schweitzer or Hickenlooper. Brian Schweitzer is just a point behind Governor Cuomo, while Hickenlooper is within margin of error of Governor Cuomo. This is really shaping up to be a really interesting race on the Democratic side."

Democratic Primary Polling as of September:
Mark Warner: 21%
Andrew Cuomo: 17%
Brian Schweitzer: 16%
John Hickenlooper: 14%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%
Joe Biden: 2%
Antonio Villagairosa: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 23%

Iowa Caucus:
Brian Schweitzer: 24%
John Hickenlooper: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Mark Warner: 8%
Joe Biden: 3%
Andrew Cuomo: 2%
Antonio Villagairosa: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 25%

New Hampshire:
Andrew Cuomo: 30%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Mark Warner: 10%
Brian Schweitzer: 8%
John Hickenlooper: 5%
Joe Biden: 2%
Antonio Villagairosa: 1%
Julian Castro: ~0%
Undecided: 29%

South Carolina:
Mark Warner: 34%
Andrew Cuomo: 12%
Julian Castro: 12%
Joe Biden: 7%
John Hickenlooper: 3%
Elizabeth Warren: 1%
Antonio Villagairosa: ~0%
Undecided: 31%

Nevada:
John Hickenlooper: 28%
Brian Schweitzer: 20%
Andrew Cuomo: 12%
Antonio Villagairosa: 8%
Mark Warner: 5%
Joe Biden: 4%
Elizabeth Warren: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 21%

[Maxwell]

Iowa Caucus Night

Poll right before the Iowa Caucus:
Brian Schweitzer: 24%
John Hickenlooper: 23%
Mark Warner: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Joe Biden: 6%
Andrew Cuomo: 5%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 16%

"Brian Schweitzer has been holding a fairly consistent fight with John Hickenlooper for the lead in Iowa. However, the more establishment candidate Mark Warner has been blowing up in the state as of recent, showing amazing momentum, while Elizabeth Warren has been sinking in the state like the rest of her candidacy. Tonight is that important night: Time to find out just who comes out on top." - Chris Matthews

Iowa Caucus 1% of the Precincts Reporting:
Mark Warner: 23.34%
Brian Schweitzer: 22.84%
John Hickenlooper: 22.54%
Andrew Cuomo: 12.82%
Elizabeth Warren: 7.33%
Joe Biden: 7.32%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 2.43%
Julian Castro: 1.38%

"Wow. In a shocking turn of events, Mark Warner has taken Iowa hostage. The barrage of ads from Schweitzer to Hickenlooper has shot his unfavorables sky high, while Hickenlooper's lack of response to those ads, due to his promise not to release negative ads, while in the beginning sinking Schweitzer's favorables further, is now starting to sink him further, thus allowing for a Warner comeback. Also note: Andrew Cuomo is in 4th place. Andrew Cuomo never made a stop anywhere in Iowa, never made a campaign speech in Iowa, and has almost no ground game in the state. It shows his strength as a candidate, and is a great sign of a massive victory in New Hampshire, where he is almost assured a win due to the sinkage of Elizabeth Warren." - Lawrence O'Donnell

"Speaking of Warren, at this point, there are reports of her quitting the race already. While her performance is not nearly what was expected even by polling the day of, she still is ahead of three other candidates: Former Vice President Joe Biden, who, despite of being a bottom tier candidate the whole time, has made effort to try to win the presidency yet again, and a congressman and a mayor who obviously had no chance to start because one started too late and the other has no ground game anywhere because he doesn't have the experience that one would want in a presidential candidate. All four of these people have zero chance but are fun to watch for a little bit." - Rachel Maddow

"And now, we have even more results from Iowa, and a bit of a shocker to a fans of him: John Hickenlooper is in third place."

Iowa Caucus 54% of the Precincts Reporting:
Brian Schweitzer: 25.43%
Mark Warner: 25.42%
John Hickenlooper: 22.22%
Andrew Cuomo: 12.82%
Joe Biden: 6.53%
Elizabeth Warren: 5.22%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 1.75%
Julian Castro: 0.61%

"Well, while this doesn't end Hickenlooper's campaign, he focused a lot of his resoures on Iowa, and it all depends on a win in Nevada. Should he not pull off a victory there, his campaign will be quixotic in nature if continues further on. Unfortunately, even if Schweitzer loses Iowa as well, Schweitzer has been polling better everywhere else, which means the possible delegate haul for him is much higher, so Hickenlooper's chances are further sliced." - Chris Matthews

"What does it mean if Schweitzer wins Iowa, even with Mark Warner's last minute surge?" - Rachel Maddow

"Well, it all just goes to show that Mark Warner COULD'VE won Iowa. It might be even better, since he could go the Bill Clinton route in look back on that state, where New Hampshire is much less likely considering he is not even in contention in the state at this moment in time, and hasn't put any resources into that state. Basically, if you're looking at two frontrunners in the race, it would have to be Governor Cuomo and Senator Warner." - Chris Matthews

"Speaking of Senator Warner, he will be taking second place tonight, as Former Governor Brian Schweitzer wins the Iowa Caucus!"



"Wow guys, this is truly a great moment. We won the Iowa caucus, and like former President Barack Obama, we will carry this moment to a bold victory in these primaries, and ultimately, a bold victory to this White House!" - Brian Schweitzer

Iowa Caucus:
Brian Schweitzer: 24.56%
Mark Warner: 24.32%
John Hickenlooper: 22.95%
Andrew Cuomo: 13.53%
Joe Biden: 7.12%
Elizabeth Warren: 4.95%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 2.11%
Julian Castro: 0.46%

Delegate Count:
Brian Schweitzer: 16
Mark Warner: 15
John Hickenlooper: 14

Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro drop out, with one endorsing Brian Schweitzer, the other endorsing Andrew Cuomo respectively.



"I know Brian Schweitzer, he is a good friend of mine, and the only candidate left who will really change Washington!" - Elizabeth Warren



"Look, perhaps I ran for President too early. I can understand that. Luckily, there is one candidate who represents true leadership and boldness that I feel like would change the way we do things on capital hill, and that person is Governor Andrew Cuomo, the next president of the United States!" - Julian Castro

Other announcements

"Wow, Iowa. Looks like our message of courage through moderacy has sweeped the nation! I hope to continue this message to New Hampshire, South Carolina, all the way to the White House!" - Mark Warner

"If you told us one year ago that we would be less than two percentage points from winning the Iowa caucus, I would've told you to hold your horses, because that isn't happening. Well you know what? It did happen, and I'm glad we made it happen!" - John Hickenlooper

"Look folks, this isn't a one state campaign. We're moving on! We're going onwards to other states. So what we lose in Iowa? We got the whole rest of the nation to win, and I certainly plan to do that, America!" - Joe Biden

"Look, I was expecting this much. However, we've got more primaries. The pundits can say what they like, but we will march forward into the primary and see what else is in store for this campaign, cause we've gone nowhere if not up." - Antonio Villaraigosa

"I would just like to thank to people of Iowa, because I wasn't expecting this. Watch us as we take the presidency with us!" - Andrew Cuomo

Democratic Primary Poll:
Mark Warner: 28%
Andrew Cuomo: 26%
Brian Schweitzer: 14%
John Hickenlooper: 10%
Joe Biden: 5%
Antonio Villaragosa: 3%
Undecided: 14%

New Hampshire Poll:
Andrew Cuomo: 44%
Brian Schweitzer: 14%
John Hickenlooper: 12%
Antonio Villaragosa: 8%
Mark Warner: 5%
Joe Biden: 1%
Undecided: 16%

Nevada:
Brian Schweitzer: 32%
John Hickenlooper: 28%
Antonio Villaragosa: 8%
Joe Biden: 6%
Mark Warner: 4%
Andrew Cuomo: 4%
Undecided: 18%

Michigan:
Andrew Cuomo: 25%
Brian Schweitzer: 24%
Mark Warner: 18%
John Hickenlooper: 8%
Joe Biden: 5%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 3%
Undecided: 17%

South Carolina:
Mark Warner: 38%
Andrew Cuomo: 18%
Joe Biden: 9%
Brian Schweitzer: 7%
Antonio Villaragosa: 5%
John Hickenlooper: 5%
Undecided: 18%

[Maxwell]

The New Hampshire Primary



New Hampshire:
Andrew Cuomo: 51.23%
Brian Schweitzer: 20.34%
John Hickenlooper: 12.35%
Mark Warner: 11.35%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 3.24%
Joe Biden: 1.49%

"It looks like the only two people getting any delegates from New Hampshire tonight are the obvious winner of the first primary Governor Andrew Cuomo, who beats the only other delegate contender by over 30 points, Brian Schweitzer. Of course, this was expected, even if Elizabeth Warren were still in the race. How are the other candidates dealing with this giant loss?" - Wolf Blitzer

"Well, the fact is there: Former Vice President Joe Biden and Congressman Antonio Villaraigosa are done after tonight, and looked cooked after the Iowa Caucus anyway. Antonio Villaraigosa can't get a Jon Huntsman-esqe surge after this because he also fumbled the New Hampshire caucus. If any of you remeber, at that point current front runner Mitt Romney narrowly beat Jon Huntsman, but Huntsman made a strong mark where he was previously polling in the 1% range. However, Villaraigosa has done nothing to change this, so his dropping at this point would be smart for his political career." - John King

"What about 3rd and 4th place winners, I know Governor Schweitzer is happy with his result, particularly because he was focusing on states that are more towards his working man message?" - Wolf Blitzer

"Well, John Hickenlooper put some resources into the state of New Hampshire, he was hoping for a slight upset there, so that might be an issue for his camp. However, his focus wasn't there, and he's currently leading in some new Nevada polls so we might see a surge from the Governor from Colorado. As for Governor Warner, this is most definitely a precursor for bigger things from him, and he is expected to devastate the field in South Carolina much like Governor Cuomo. Like Cuomo's performance in Iowa, nobody was expecting Warner to pass the double digit range, and that alone is an acheivement. It's a testament to his current frontrunner-ness in spite of not yet winning a state." - John King

"Well, we're going to look and see what happens next, as it appears that Former Vice President Joe Biden appears to be dropping out." - Wolf Blitzer

Joe Biden leaves the race, endorses Mark Warner



"Look folks, this race is no longer viable for me. I can not and will not keep on running. Instead, I am endorsing my good friend Mark Warner because I know he will take the country in the right direction! He's a good man and he knows his compromises!" - Joe Biden

National Polling:
Andrew Cuomo: 29%
Mark Warner: 27%
Brian Schweitzer: 20%
John Hickenlooper: 11%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 1%
Undecided: 12%

Nevada:
John Hickenlooper: 30%
Brian Schweitzer: 29%
Mark Warner: 12%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 10%
Andrew Cuomo: 8%
Undecided: 11%

Michigan:
Andrew Cuomo: 33%
Brian Schweitzer: 28%
Mark Warner: 16%
John Hickenlooper: 10%
Antonio Villaraigosa: ~0%
Undecided: 13%

South Carolina:
Mark Warner: 42%
Andrew Cuomo: 23%
Brian Schweitzer: 18%
John Hickenlooper: 5%
Antonio Villaraigosa: ~0%
Undecided: 12%

Florida:
Mark Warner: 29%
Andrew Cuomo: 28%
Brian Schweitzer: 15%
John Hickenlooper: 14%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 2%
Undecided: 12%

Brian Schweitzer: 20
Andrew Cuomo: 18
Mark Warner: 15
John Hickenlooper: 14

[Maxwell]

Nevada:
John Hickenlooper: 32.53%
Brian Schweitzer: 30.84%
Mark Warner: 15.21%
Andrew Cuomo: 15.04%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 6.38%



Michigan:
Brian Schweitzer: 29.85%
Andrew Cuomo: 28.21%  
Mark Warner: 23.82%  
John Hickenlooper: 17.21%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.91%

Congressman Antonio Villaraigosa withdraws from the race, endorses Governor Cuomo

Brian Schweitzer: 68
Andrew Cuomo: 58
Mark Warner: 49
John Hickenlooper: 45

National Polls:
Andrew Cuomo: 26%
Brian Schweitzer: 25%
Mark Warner: 24%
John Hickenlooper: 13%
Undecided: 12%

South Carolina:
Mark Warner: 39%
Andrew Cuomo: 28%
Brian Schweitzer: 13%
John Hickenlooper: 8%
Undecided: 12%

Florida:
Andrew Cuomo: 27%
Mark Warner: 27%
Brian Schweitzer: 20%
John Hickenlooper: 15%
Undecided: 11%

Major Super Tuesday States

Arizona:
John Hickenlooper: 35%
Mark Warner: 27%
Brian Schweitzer: 10%
Andrew Cuomo: 10%
Undecided: 18%

Georgia:
Mark Warner: 40%
Andrew Cuomo: 32%
Brian Schweitzer: 7%
John Hickenlooper: 4%
Undecided: 17%

California:
Andrew Cuomo: 25%
John Hickenlooper: 22%
Mark Warner: 19%
Brian Schweitzer: 18%
Undecided: 16%

Illinois:
Andrew Cuomo: 35%
Mark Warner: 30%
Brian Schweitzer: 10%
John Hickenlooper: 5%
Undecided: 20%

Missouri:
Mark Warner: 34%
Andrew Cuomo: 25%
Brian Schweitzer: 16%
John Hickenlooper: 10%
Undecided: 15%