Siena polls: NY-24 tied NY-01 Bishop +13 NY-18 Hayworth +13 NY-20 Gibson +16

[krazen1211]

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/1st%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf

Bishop 52
Altschuler 39


http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/ann-marie-buerk.php

Buerkhle 43
Maffei 43

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Kind of surprising to see Bishop ahead by so much. Unsurprising that Buerkle and Maffei are tied.

[sg0508]

In my native Long Island, the chance to knock Bishop out was 2010 and it didn't happen.  Long Island will probably go 55% democratic in November as a whole, far different from when the island was a GOP stronghold back in the "Rockefeller GOP" days.

[minionofmidas]

By comparison... they have the first tied presidentially, Obama won it by 4 in 2008. And they have Obama ahead by 19 in the 24th, 5 points more than he won it by in 2008.
Something tells me these polls ain't so good.

[krazen1211]

By comparison... they have the first tied presidentially, Obama won it by 4 in 2008. And they have Obama ahead by 19 in the 24th, 5 points more than he won it by in 2008.
Something tells me these polls ain't so good.

House polls are generally not perfect. I'll take what is given.



http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/18th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf


Hayworth 46
Maloney 33

[minionofmidas]

House polls are generally not perfect.

Oh, aye. The reason being that you can't take a scientifically unbiased sample of a given human population and that professional pollsters know how to cheat and get a representative-on-the-questions-they-care-for sample anyhow, in populations they know their way about. If House Districts had easily defined borders and stayed the same over lengthy periods of time, there'd soon be better polls of them.
 

[krazen1211]

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/CD19%20September%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf


Gibson 52
Schreibman 36

[krazen1211]

House polls are generally not perfect.

Oh, aye. The reason being that you can't take a scientifically unbiased sample of a given human population and that professional pollsters know how to cheat and get a representative-on-the-questions-they-care-for sample anyhow, in populations they know their way about. If House Districts had easily defined borders and stayed the same over lengthy periods of time, there'd soon be better polls of them.
 

Siena came up with interesting crosstabs for this Gibson poll. Gibson is winning 2-1 in his old district and only by 5 in the new parts.

I wonder if upstate is going back to its old holding pattern where incumbents hold marginal districts with ease.

[Miles]

House polls are generally not perfect.

Oh, aye. The reason being that you can't take a scientifically unbiased sample of a given human population and that professional pollsters know how to cheat and get a representative-on-the-questions-they-care-for sample anyhow, in populations they know their way about. If House Districts had easily defined borders and stayed the same over lengthy periods of time, there'd soon be better polls of them.
 

Siena came up with interesting crosstabs for this Gibson poll. Gibson is winning 2-1 in his old district and only by 5 in the new parts.

I wonder if upstate is going back to its old holding pattern where incumbents hold marginal districts with ease.

I hope that's the case; that would be good for Hochul too.

[krazen1211]

I hope that's the case; that would be good for Hochul too.

Well, I would exclude Hochul from that, but Owens seems to have planted himself in historically Republican territory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

far different from when the island was a GOP stronghold back in the "Rockefeller GOP" days.

This was not so at Congressional level, so it's not a 'far cry' of any sort.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In my native Long Island, the chance to knock Bishop out was 2010 and it didn't happen.  Long Island will probably go 55% democratic in November as a whole, far different from when the island was a GOP stronghold back in the "Rockefeller GOP" days.

If anything the "Rockefeller GOP days" saw the start of the GOP decline on LI and in general: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_New_York

Now if you had said the Eisenhower years, then you would have a case to make.

The reason that Bishop won was because of the NY GOP establishment creating an unnecessary distraction for Altschuler by trying to insert a favored candidate into the primary instead of him. In fact, most of the GOP's missed opportunties in NY recently can be laid at the feet of the state party organization.