NBC/Marist: Obama with decent leads in Ohio, Virginia and Florida

[Lief 🗽]

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/13/13843743-first-thoughts-a-tricky-situation

Three new polls tonight at 6:30 eastern. And, more exciting, starting this week they will be releasing three battleground state polls every week until election day.

[Likely Voter]

Hopefully they do WI, NV, NH and IA. Havent seen polls from any of those for 3-4 weeks

[Tender Branson]

Prediction:

OH: Obama+3
VA: Obama+2
FL: Obama+1

Marist has been good in the past 2 cycles.

[JFK-Democrat]

My Prediction:

FL: Obama + 3
OH: Obama + 4
VA: Tied

[Gass3268]

Chris Matthews just said that the numbers will be released during the 7pm hour of Hardball. His description of them were "Wait till you see these numbers." He seemed pretty excited about them, probably good news for Obama.

[Likely Voter]

Chris Matthews just said that the numbers will be released during the 7pm hour of Hardball. His description of them were "Wait till you see these numbers." He seemed pretty excited about them, probably good news for Obama.

Is Chris getting a tingle in his leg?

My guessing...
VA: Obama +2
FL: Obama +3
OH: Obama +4

[Niemeyerite]

My prediction:

VA Obama +5
Ohio Obama +3
Florida Obama +2

[pepper11]

My prediction:

VA: O + 4 (+6 w/ Goode)
OH: O + 5
FL: O + 3

I think if you take 1-2 points off Obama's margin that is where the race is.

[Lief 🗽]

Dominating.

Virginia: Obama 49, Romney 44
Florida: Obama 49, Romney 44
Ohio: Obama 50, Romney 43

That's likely voters. His leads with registered voters are +7 in VA, +8 in FL and +9 in Ohio.

[mondale84]

Dominating.

Virginia: Obama 49, Romney 44
Florida: Obama 49, Romney 44
Ohio: Obama 50, Romney 43

That's likely voters. His leads with registered voters are +7 in VA, +8 in FL and +9 in Ohio.

These are consistent with a national Obama lead of 6-7. Obamamentum continues!

[Supersonic]

It's over.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I bet there's lots of Republican households with new holes punched in walls right about now.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Dominating.

Virginia: Obama 49, Romney 44
Florida: Obama 49, Romney 44
Ohio: Obama 50, Romney 43

That's likely voters. His leads with registered voters are +7 in VA, +8 in FL and +9 in Ohio.

Damn, that's twice the lead I would've expected in all of those states.

[J. J.]

Bounce from the DNC, and being attributed to Clinton's speech.  Tracking might be showing that this is waning.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

[/quote]

Dominating.

Virginia: Obama 49, Romney 44
Florida: Obama 49, Romney 44
Ohio: Obama 50, Romney 43

That's likely voters. His leads with registered voters are +7 in VA, +8 in FL and +9 in Ohio.

Damn, that's twice the lead I would've expected in all of those states.

Ditto. This is a great day for America.

[Yank2133]

Bounce from the DNC, and being attributed to Clinton's speech.  Tracking might be showing that this is waning.

Whatever helps you sleep at night.......

[pa2011]

Bounce from the DNC, and being attributed to Clinton's speech.  Tracking might be showing that this is waning.

Think Tracking is showing, believe Gallup, not Rasmussen. But undoubtedly, the leads shown here will narrow. They seem a bit high as is, but at the moment Romney seems no better off than McCain.

[Mehmentum]

Obama at 50% in Ohio?  Romney has got to be scared about that. 

[Lief 🗽]

lol J.J., don't spin too hard, you might hurt yourself.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obama needs to do little more than not screw up.  D-leaning firms show Obama with a big lead.  R-leaning firms show the race close... but Obama barely leading.  Credible polls like this show the race within a few points of where it is.  Considering that this race doesn't seem like it's turning completely into a referendum on Obama, I would doubt the advantage among undecideds that challengers usually enjoy will be as exaggerated at it usually is.  Romney's hopes lie in the debates, and it doesn't seem like speaking is his greatest asset.  He's got to dominate in the 1st debate or Election Night is going to be basically over at 8, formally over at 11. 

I'd like to see some polling info after Romney's latest gaffe about the embassy attacks.  I think Republicans have to realize that it was something he HAD to do, because the status quo is an obvious loss. 

[LiberalJunkie]

If this keeps up through the debates Romney is done. You can't be underperforming John McCain in Ohio or  Florida to win.

[pepper11]

Great numbers for Obama.

What are the dates for this?

Ryanmentum has ceased unfortunately.

Romney needs debate-mentum.

EDIT: Sept 9-11. This probably includes a 2 point DNC bounce. Still not good.

[President von Cat]

Solid numbers, but this election could change so fast. It is not over by any stretch of the imagination. We still have debates, and there's always unpredictable factors like a potential collapse in Europe. Betting on the latter is a losing strategy for the Romney campaign (or any campaign), but the fact is that it could still turn the race on its head.

[Mister Twister]

The problem for Romney is his closeness in the national polls does not come from swing states. Rather, it comes from

1. Rural states like Kansas, North Dakota, Utah, Indiana etc swinging wildly towards Romney
2. Wealthy blue states like Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine, New Hampshire etc swinging towards Romney

Romney is not getting swings in states where it matters most. This is a problem for him. It doesn't matter if he gets 10% bounces in CT, KS, NJ, ND etc because those states are off the table, one way or the other.

[Likely Voter]

Romney can't afford to lose any of these states, especially FL. He is just fighting on too many fronts for this stage of the campaign. He needs a game changer. Maybe the first debate can do it, but that puts a lot of pressure on one night and his campaign is really blowing the expectations game on that.