Predict: Which of these states will vote Republican in the next 20 years?
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  Predict: Which of these states will vote Republican in the next 20 years?
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Question: Which of these states will vote Republican in the next 20 years?
#1
Florida
 
#2
Ohio
 
#3
Iowa
 
#4
Colorado
 
#5
Virginia
 
#6
Wisconsin
 
#7
Pennsylvania
 
#8
New Hampshire
 
#9
Nevada
 
#10
Minnesota
 
#11
Michigan
 
#12
New Mexico
 
#13
None of these
 
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Total Voters: 51

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Author Topic: Predict: Which of these states will vote Republican in the next 20 years?  (Read 1164 times)
Mr. Illini
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« on: February 18, 2014, 05:49:19 PM »

Well? Explain in the comments.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2014, 06:22:23 PM »

Wrong forum. Wink
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2014, 06:24:43 PM »

I would say all of them up to New Hampshire. We're likely to have a decent republican presidential year.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2014, 06:27:34 PM »

in order:

Colorado (if Hillary is candidate)
Iowa (if Hillary is candidate)
Florida
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New Hamphsire
Wisconsin
Virginia (my out there guess)
Nevada
New Mexico
Michigan
Minnesota
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henster
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« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2014, 06:35:02 PM »

Just too far out to predict any future political patterns.
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Harry
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« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2014, 07:23:40 PM »

In order for "NOTA" to be the answer, Democrats would have to win handily in each of the next 5 elections (7 in a row).  I really, really hope so, but I doubt it.  More likely, the answer is all of them.
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2014, 08:27:18 PM »

In order for "NOTA" to be the answer, Democrats would have to win handily in each of the next 5 elections (7 in a row).  I really, really hope so, but I doubt it.  More likely, the answer is all of them.

In order to vote all of them, the Republicans would need a real landslide sometime in the next 20 years. Minnesota, Michigan, and New Mexico will only go that way if you've locked up every state before them on the list as well, IMO.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2014, 08:32:01 PM »

In order for "NOTA" to be the answer, Democrats would have to win handily in each of the next 5 elections (7 in a row).  I really, really hope so, but I doubt it.  More likely, the answer is all of them.

I concur. Some time the Democrats are going to have an incumbent failure who wins only DC, Vermont, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island (which would be how a Reagan win over Carter would look like today) or a challenger who loses 47 to 49 states.  
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2014, 08:32:25 PM »

I think New Mexico and Nevada are too far gone barring a major shift in voting patterns, the rest could easily still be won or will soon be winnable. I think Ohio will begin to fade in importance as it becomes smaller and more rigidly R-leaning.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2014, 08:37:08 PM »

In order for "NOTA" to be the answer, Democrats would have to win handily in each of the next 5 elections (7 in a row).  I really, really hope so, but I doubt it.  More likely, the answer is all of them.

I concur. Some time the Democrats are going to have an incumbent failure who wins only DC, Vermont, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island (which would be how a Reagan win over Carter would look like today) or a challenger who loses 47 to 49 states.  

If the candidate is winning these, they are also winning Washington, California, and probably Illinois. Those states currently vote comparably (all three more D than Maine, I believe) and are more inelastic because of their large cities.

What I would say is DC, Hawai'i, Vermont, Massachusetts, RI, Maryland, California. Swing states Illinois, Washington, and Maine, as if it would matter.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2014, 08:42:09 PM »

I voted for all of them except Minnesota, Michigan, and New Mexico. Although voting for Nevada might just be naive optimism on my part, being a Republican who's originally from there. Tongue
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2014, 08:43:26 PM »

Actually, Maine would probably go R before Washington, Washington has trended D in every of the last four elections.
Maine has a lot more white voters. (although Maine isn't going R anytime soon either)
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2014, 10:21:16 PM »

All of them besides MN, MI, and NM.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2014, 08:29:23 PM »

I'm not sure Minnesota will ever go for a Republican again, but then again, this is the state that elected a professional wrestler and conspiracy theorist its governor in 1998.


I voted Iowa because it went for Bush in '04, and handily rejected its sitting governor in 2010, the Iowa House went from fairly Democratic to solid Republican, and almost taking control of the Iowa Senate as well.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2014, 01:03:21 AM »

Incorporating trends, this is my best guess of what a reverse 2008 or reverse 1996 scenario would look like for Democrats.  One or the other is bound to happen within 20 years:



Note that relative lack of safe D states.  An R winning with 55% would have an excellent chance of 400+ EV.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2014, 01:09:50 AM »
« Edited: February 21, 2014, 01:13:43 AM by Skill and Chance »

For reference, I think this is the best possible case for a generic Democrat.  Hillary might make the Clinton-McCain states toss-ups if she is doing that well nationally, but I don't think anyone else could.


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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2014, 01:23:07 AM »

You really start to see the gap in safe states when you get out to Reagan/LBJ level landslides.  The states I am completely confident will not vote R are the 5 that would have held up in a 60/37 Romney landslide:



And I would be completely confident that these states won't vote D, because Obama doesn't even carry them if winning 60/37 over Romney (giving AK and LA to Obama with <50% because of 3rd party support):




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Orser67
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« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2014, 01:10:51 PM »

Voted only New Mexico. I'm betting that current polarization means a 2008 Obama-style victory will be roughly the max number of EV's for either party over the next 20 years, but I'm also betting that Republicans will move to the center a little bit and do better in the Midwest within the next 20 years.

A more interesting question imo is which states will vote more Republican than the national popular vote in the next 20 years.
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2014, 03:22:53 PM »

What many of you are doing is creating firewalls. I'm not asking for worst case Dem scenario, but rather realistically what states you would predict would go Republican. Since I have already predicted that the GOP will not be winning back the WH until 2024, that at least gives the Dems 10 of the 20 years without a landslide.

Realistically, I would predict that these will be the states that vote GOP in the next 20 years.

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: February 23, 2014, 10:57:19 PM »

Voted only New Mexico. I'm betting that current polarization means a 2008 Obama-style victory will be roughly the max number of EV's for either party over the next 20 years, but I'm also betting that Republicans will move to the center a little bit and do better in the Midwest within the next 20 years.

A more interesting question imo is which states will vote more Republican than the national popular vote in the next 20 years.

I bet an incumbent running in a booming economy could exceed Obama 2008.  I would say the modern upper bound is somewhere between Clinton '96 and Ike '52.  Of course there could always be a weird 3rd party situation.
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