CO-SurveyUSA: Tied race
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 10:38:45 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  CO-SurveyUSA: Tied race
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: CO-SurveyUSA: Tied race  (Read 4413 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 14, 2012, 01:34:02 AM »
« edited: September 14, 2012, 01:03:43 PM by Tender Branson »

Official figures are:

47-46 Obama

3-way:

45-44-3 Obama/Romney/Johnson

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.denverpost.com/headlines/ci_21543908

...

Predictions ?

CO: 47-43 Obama

OR: 51-42 Obama

KY: 53-41 Romney
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2012, 11:36:40 AM »

The Colorado poll will be released in 1.5 hours !!!

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.denverpost.com/headlines/ci_21543908
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,624
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2012, 11:53:48 AM »

Who the hell cares about Kentucky?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2012, 11:54:56 AM »


Well, the last poll from there is now 1 year old. It's nice to have a new one ... Tongue
Logged
Reds4
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 789


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2012, 12:07:39 PM »

Those seem like reasonable guesses as to what the polls will be..

I'll go with

CO: 48-45 Obama

OR: 53-41 Obama

KY: 53-42 Romney

Predictions ?

CO: 47-43 Obama

OR: 51-42 Obama

KY: 53-41 Romney
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2012, 01:04:18 PM »

Updated the OP with the new CO numbers.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2012, 01:08:55 PM »

Weird that Obama is doing better in Florida than in Colorado.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2012, 01:22:10 PM »

SurveyUSA is up to its usual games, I see.
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2012, 02:25:49 PM »


You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2012, 02:27:31 PM »


You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

Keep telling yourself that.
Logged
SUSAN CRUSHBONE
a Person
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,735
Antarctica


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2012, 02:27:50 PM »


You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

Some people who are registered voters (even "active" registered voters) don't vote. This should not be a difficult concept.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2012, 02:28:08 PM »


You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

Keep telling yourself that.
I bet it will be Romney - 50 Obama - 48 on election night
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2012, 02:28:48 PM »

Weird that Obama is doing better in Florida than in Colorado.

Not really.  Colorado has always been one of Romney's best pick-up opportunities.  Because of the state's small size and, thus, low electoral value, and also because of the bogus beltway narrative about Hispanics and young people apparently taking over the state, people have wrongly assumed that Colorado would be a reach for Romney.

It never was, it isn't now, and it definitely won't be on Election Day.  While I'm far from confident about Romney's chances nationally, people will be genuinely surprised that Colorado ends up with a PVI of R +3 or R+4 in November.
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2012, 02:30:36 PM »


You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

Some people who are registered voters (even "active" registered voters) don't vote. This should not be a difficult concept.

In a state where Republicans always outnumber Democrats in elections, and where the GOP has actually made real gains in the voter rolls since '08 (when, yet again, more Republicans voted than Democrats), why would 2012 be the most explosive year for Democratic turnout in Colorado ever?  The notion defies logic.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2012, 02:42:04 PM »

Did they poll the marijuana referendum?
Logged
MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 779
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2012, 02:53:54 PM »


You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

Some people who are registered voters (even "active" registered voters) don't vote. This should not be a difficult concept.

In a state where Republicans always outnumber Democrats in elections, and where the GOP has actually made real gains in the voter rolls since '08 (when, yet again, more Republicans voted than Democrats), why would 2012 be the most explosive year for Democratic turnout in Colorado ever?  The notion defies logic.

Well argued. I like you. But don't expect too much "logic" around here.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2012, 02:54:33 PM »


You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

Some people who are registered voters (even "active" registered voters) don't vote. This should not be a difficult concept.

In a state where Republicans always outnumber Democrats in elections, and where the GOP has actually made real gains in the voter rolls since '08 (when, yet again, more Republicans voted than Democrats), why would 2012 be the most explosive year for Democratic turnout in Colorado ever?  The notion defies logic.

Well argued. I like you. But don't expect too much "logic" around here.
You make a good point.
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2012, 03:06:33 PM »

Did they poll the marijuana referendum?

Yes.  The Post will release those results probably sometime this weekend.  I really don't expect it to pass.  My hunch is that it's polling in the mid-to-upper 40s, as it has been for PPP for a while.  If it isn't well above 50% now, it won't get there before November.  The popular Democratic governor came out against it this week, which will only deepen opposition and will almost definitely bring along some Democrats who have been on the fence about it. 
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2012, 03:09:22 PM »

The popular Democratic governor came out against it this week

I guess they don't call him Governor 1% for nothing.
Logged
mondale84
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2012, 03:51:01 PM »

Weird that Obama is doing better in Florida than in Colorado.

Not really.  Colorado has always been one of Romney's best pick-up opportunities.  Because of the state's small size and, thus, low electoral value, and also because of the bogus beltway narrative about Hispanics and young people apparently taking over the state, people have wrongly assumed that Colorado would be a reach for Romney.

It never was, it isn't now, and it definitely won't be on Election Day.  While I'm far from confident about Romney's chances nationally, people will be genuinely surprised that Colorado ends up with a PVI of R +3 or R+4 in November.

This isn't a "Beltway narrative", this is the truth. Just because you live in some desolate right-wing hellhole (either the praire or Colorado Springs) doesn't mean the real population growth in the metro areas is making the state more R-leaning. The Republican registration advantage is residual from the primary because it was competitive when Colorado voted and people registered. Remember, in all the Southwest states, there is an underestimation of the Hispanic vote. I wouldn't be surprised if Hispanics make up 14-15% of the electorate since in 2010 they made up 12%.
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,175
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 14, 2012, 03:52:22 PM »

The popular Democratic governor came out against it this week

I guess they don't call him Governor 1% for nothing.

Lol, well that does narrow my 2016 list down a tad.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 14, 2012, 04:38:17 PM »

Denver Post was less Obama friendly in 2008. CO is one of the states Dems generally overperform on election day. Polls had 2008 at 4-6 points and Obama won by 9 while every 2010 poll had Bennet losing. Lean D
Logged
Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,203
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 14, 2012, 05:02:07 PM »

Denver Post was less Obama friendly in 2008. CO is one of the states Dems generally overperform on election day. Polls had 2008 at 4-6 points and Obama won by 9 while every 2010 poll had Bennet losing. Lean D
I think Colorado is more of a tossup than Ohio. Obama could very well win Obio by 5 points, and only win Colorado by 3. I don't totally buy into the "College Students and Hispanics Are Pushing Colorado Left" meme. It's happening, but not nearly as fast as some think it is.
Logged
mondale84
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 14, 2012, 05:31:55 PM »

Denver Post was less Obama friendly in 2008. CO is one of the states Dems generally overperform on election day. Polls had 2008 at 4-6 points and Obama won by 9 while every 2010 poll had Bennet losing. Lean D
I think Colorado is more of a tossup than Ohio. Obama could very well win Obio by 5 points, and only win Colorado by 3. I don't totally buy into the "College Students and Hispanics Are Pushing Colorado Left" meme. It's happening, but not nearly as fast as some think it is.

Dems always outperform the polls in CO and NV and there's no reason to believe it won't happen this time. Also, the pot amendment is going to motivate young people so their turnout will probably be up.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 14, 2012, 10:27:36 PM »


You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

Some people who are registered voters (even "active" registered voters) don't vote. This should not be a difficult concept.

In a state where Republicans always outnumber Democrats in elections, and where the GOP has actually made real gains in the voter rolls since '08 (when, yet again, more Republicans voted than Democrats), why would 2012 be the most explosive year for Democratic turnout in Colorado ever?  The notion defies logic.

Well argued. I like you. But don't expect too much "logic" around here.

All right, let's use a little logic. Even using the active registration numbers there is only a R+2 advantage. If you use total registration, which is of course the logical thing to do, it evens up more or less. So why would there be a R+3 turnout? You guys do realize who the Republican nominee is, right? There won't be a groundswell for him, that's for sure. And while Democratic enthusiasm was low earlier in the year, things seem to have changed. I'm not saying they are more enthusiastic than Republicans, but the whole enthusiasm divide is a little overplayed. An even partisan turnout is pretty much what is likely to happen, considering that was the case even in 2010.

BTW guys could you please put your money where your mouth is and go on intrade and short sell Obama or buy Romney. I already think Obama is undervalued, but since there are a lot of people like you guys out there, I think prices could go even lower meaning more money for me. Smiley
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 14 queries.