OH-Rasmussen: Obama+1

[Tender Branson]

Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

[Miles]

I personally would put Obama up by 2-3 there, but since Rassy's poll there exactly a month ago showed a tied race, I'll take this.

Anyway, entered.

[MorningInAmerica]

The party i.d. for this likely voter sample is 36% Democrat, 34% Republican, 30% Independent (D+2). 2008 Ohio turnout per CNN exit polls was D+8. In 2004, it was R+5.

For the record, despite the new post-DNC consensus amongst most pollsters (that LV turnout in November is going to be 2008 esque), I still personally don't buy it. Scotty's sample seems perfectly reasonable to me. It's dead in the middle between 2004 and 2008 Democratic turnout in Ohio (which is just my personal hunch of what the electorate will look like in November).

Also, Obama and Romney are tied at 43% each with "other" (which is what Scotty calls Independents).

[Craigo]

The party i.d. for this likely voter sample is 36% Democrat, 34% Republican, 30% Independent (D+2). 2008 Ohio turnout per CNN exit polls was D+8. In 2004, it was R+5.

For the record, despite the new post-DNC consensus amongst most pollsters (that LV turnout in November is going to be 2008 esque), I still personally don't buy it. Scotty's sample seems perfectly reasonable to me. It's dead in the middle between 2004 and 2008 Democratic turnout in Ohio (which is just my personal hunch of what the electorate will look like in November).

Also, Obama and Romney are tied at 43% each with "other" (which is what Scotty calls Independents).

Scotty? What, are you his best friend?

Have you ever even met him? I have, and I don't call him Scotty.

Plus, the usual refrain - don't waste time with party ID.

[MorningInAmerica]

The party i.d. for this likely voter sample is 36% Democrat, 34% Republican, 30% Independent (D+2). 2008 Ohio turnout per CNN exit polls was D+8. In 2004, it was R+5.

For the record, despite the new post-DNC consensus amongst most pollsters (that LV turnout in November is going to be 2008 esque), I still personally don't buy it. Scotty's sample seems perfectly reasonable to me. It's dead in the middle between 2004 and 2008 Democratic turnout in Ohio (which is just my personal hunch of what the electorate will look like in November).

Also, Obama and Romney are tied at 43% each with "other" (which is what Scotty calls Independents).

Scotty? What, are you his best friend?

Have you ever even met him? I have, and I don't call him Scotty (it actually seems to be a derogatory wasy of referring to him).

Plus, the usual refrain - don't waste time with party ID.

I'm far from the only person on this forum that refers to Scotty as Scotty.

Oh, the usual refrain - stop telling me what to do or what to post.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL, even Romney's internals show him losing by four.

[Tender Branson]

LOL, even Romney's internals show him losing by four.

Yeah, it's a sad day for the Romney-campaign if even Scott Rasmussen can't put him ahead there.

[Umengus]

LOL, even Romney's internals show him losing by four.

it's not a romney's internals poll but a gop poll.

[TJ in Oregon]

I don't understand why Romney wanted to leak an internal poll that had him down 4 in Ohio right when Rasmussen released a poll with him only down 1. I know a lot of people on the left don't trust Rasmussen much, but they're not going to trust a Republican pollster either. He may as well have just used this poll to say Ohio is a dead heat. It seems like a strategy mistake.

[J. J.]

I personally would put Obama up by 2-3 there, but since Rassy's poll there exactly a month ago showed a tied race, I'll take this.

Anyway, entered.

I actually agree, but this is probably caught part of the DNC bounce.

[Supersonic]

I'll take an Obama +1 lead given Romney's difficulties in Ohio.

[Chaddyr23]

I don't understand why Romney wanted to leak an internal poll that had him down 4 in Ohio right when Rasmussen released a poll with him only down 1. I know a lot of people on the left don't trust Rasmussen much, but they're not going to trust a Republican pollster either. He may as well have just used this poll to say Ohio is a dead heat. It seems like a strategy mistake.

Strategic mistakes are his norm. I sound like such a hater. Either way the odds are beginning to stack against Romney however he still has quite a chance to win this in October if he can rebrand himself

[Badger]

LOL, even Romney's internals show him losing by four.

it's not a romney's internals poll but a gop poll.

Oh, well that changes everything.