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  KY-SurveyUSA: Romney has large lead in the state
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Author Topic: KY-SurveyUSA: Romney has large lead in the state  (Read 3606 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: September 16, 2012, 12:51:54 am »

Img


Hmm, the graphic is not really sharp. We'll have to wait for the news release I guess.

http://www.courier-journal.com
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2012, 01:00:53 am »

If the chart on the graphic is indeed the Obama/Romney matchup and not something else, Romney is probably ahead by something like 2:1 in Kentucky.

The chart implies that Romney has about 55-60% support and Obama 25-30%.

But it could be a chart for something else.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2012, 02:13:33 am »

53-39

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20120916/NEWS0106/309160046/Romney-has-large-lead-Kentucky-Bluegrass-Poll-shows?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Home&nclick_check=1
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True Federalist
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2012, 02:22:24 am »
« Edited: September 16, 2012, 02:27:21 am by True Federalist »

3% Other 5% Undecided, 606 LV

Looks like Obama will do better in Kentucky than he did in 2008.  However at this rate, Kentucky won't be a tossup state until mid-century.
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morgieb
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2012, 03:29:18 am »

Improvement I guess.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2012, 03:40:55 am »

Improvement I guess.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2012, 05:07:47 am »

Barack Obama remains a poor cultural match for Kentucky outside of Louisville, Frankfort, Lexington, and Covington.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2012, 05:45:53 am »

In before Bandit claims fraud.
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Ty440
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2012, 08:39:03 am »

Barack Obama remains a poor cultural match for Kentucky outside of Louisville, Frankfort, Lexington, and Covington.


And the multimillionaire , Mormon from Massachusetts is a good cultural match?

It's about race nothing more nothing less, If Obama was a white man named Barry O'Neil, the numbers would be reversed.
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2012, 09:25:26 am »
« Edited: September 16, 2012, 09:27:32 am by thrillr1111 »

Barack Obama remains a poor cultural match for Kentucky outside of Louisville, Frankfort, Lexington, and Covington.

Bill Clinton carried this state. I think if Hillary Clinton was on the ticket with Obama. He could carry Kentucky and Arkansas if Hillary campaigned hard in those states. I'm not sure why Joe Biden isn't a good fit in certain parts of Ky. He's a good fit in Scranton PA
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Badger
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2012, 09:28:40 am »

Barack Obama remains a poor cultural match for Kentucky outside of Louisville, Frankfort, Lexington, and Covington.

Covington and its surrounding county is actually heavily Republican.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2012, 10:56:27 am »

53-39

This from the pollster that claimed Romney was winning the 18-29 crowd in Colorado.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2012, 10:58:00 am »

Barack Obama remains a poor cultural match for Kentucky outside of Louisville, Frankfort, Lexington, and Covington.

Covington and its surrounding county is actually heavily Republican.

The city is Democratic though.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2012, 12:05:27 pm »

New Poll: Kentucky President by Survey USA on 2012-09-13

Summary: D: 39%, R: 53%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2012, 12:15:14 pm »

Kentucky is probably one of those 5 or 6 states that swings D in a close race.
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xavier110
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« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2012, 12:16:45 pm »

"The best news in the poll for Obama came when people were asked who is more in touch with average working people — Obama got 44 percent to Romney’s 41 percent."

LOLz
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2012, 12:20:07 pm »

Kentucky is probably one of those 5 or 6 states that swings D in a close race.

Notice that even with a Republican pollster like SurveyUSA, Obama does better in Kentucky than he did last time.

The county-by-county trends are going to be somewhat interesting.
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Holmes
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« Reply #17 on: September 16, 2012, 12:59:28 pm »

SUSA is a Republican pollster? They're quite crappy, in my opinion, but Kentucky and Washington are their best states.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: September 16, 2012, 01:09:03 pm »

What may be more significant -- if Kentucky is at all closer for President Obama, then Missouri (which has areas much like eastern Kentucky) gets much closer. Indiana is then in play because southern Indiana is culturally close to Kentucky.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #19 on: September 16, 2012, 01:13:34 pm »

What may be more significant -- if Kentucky is at all closer for President Obama, then Missouri (which has areas much like eastern Kentucky) gets much closer. Indiana is then in play because southern Indiana is culturally close to Kentucky.

That depends on whether the urban-rural split is widening, which is still unclear.

This poll says Romney wins the Louisville area by 10, but it's a 14-county area, not just Jefferson County.

I have a gut feeling Obama is going to pick up Marion County this time around.
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #20 on: September 16, 2012, 02:30:46 pm »

Looks like Kentucky won't swing much if things stay the same.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #21 on: September 16, 2012, 09:06:34 pm »

Quote
It's about race nothing more nothing less, If Obama was a white man named Barry O'Neil, the numbers would be reversed.

95 percent of black people voted for Obama. You're quite right, it's all about race.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #22 on: September 16, 2012, 10:23:32 pm »

It's crazy how much things have changed in only 20 years. In the 1992 race, Clinton won Kentucky and New Jersey by about the same margin.

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #23 on: September 16, 2012, 10:26:57 pm »

It's crazy how much things have changed in only 20 years. In the 1992 race, Clinton won Kentucky and New Jersey by about the same margin.

Not only that, but Campbell County used to be one of the very worst counties in Kentucky. It's still worse than average, but not that much worse.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #24 on: September 16, 2012, 10:32:33 pm »

I don't know much about Campbell County, KY. I assume it's a suburb of Cincinnati?

I was talking more about the realignment. It seems like most conservative Democrats in KY have moved into the R column. I see Kentucky as a safe Republican state for years to come.
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