IN-Global Strategy Group (D): Romney ahead by 6 in Donnelly's (D) internal

[Tender Branson]

The Sept. 10-12 Global Strategy Group survey of 800 likely Hoosier voters found:

47-41 Romney

http://files.www.joeforindiana.com/IN_SEN_Memo_9.14.12_d2.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Looks not winnable this year ...

But I'd happily trade the state to Romney if Donnelly wins the Senate race.

[Lief 🗽]

Eh, losing by six points isn't that bad (and the numbers for the Senate race don't look that ridiculous). I'm sure if Obama had actually contested the state he'd only be down by 2 or 3% right now.

[Umengus]

very good for Romney, considering the source and the time.

[Tender Branson]

Actually, at this point in 2008, Indiana was about 3-7% for McCain too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=18

Only in the end Obama managed to win. The final polls also had McCain ahead.

I'd like to see Obama dump 1 or 2 million $ into the state just for fun to see what happens with the polls. Maybe Romney would then have to go in there big as well to defend the state.

[Likely Voter]

While Obama could make a play for the state, I dont think he has the money to burn. Obama has already reduced his NC buy to 1/2 mil/week, diverting money to FL. I don't think he should waste his time just trying to piss off Romney

[Umengus]

Actually, at this point in 2008, Indiana was about 3-7% for McCain too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=18

Only in the end Obama managed to win. The final polls also had McCain ahead.

I'd like to see Obama dump 1 or 2 million $ into the state just for fun to see what happens with the polls. Maybe Romney would then have to go in there big as well to defend the state.

2012 is not 2008... (I hope it !)

[mondale84]

This is great news for President Obama and shows the state is competitive. While it is an internal, Donnelly's camp has probably inflated Romney's margin to show Donnelly outperforming Obama and therefore competitive. I would consider Indiana a tossup, with perhaps a 1-2% Romney lead at the moment.

[pbrower2a]

Indiana ...

2000 Obama (D) won by 1
2004 Bush won by 20
2000 Bush won by 20
1996 Dole won by 6
1992 Bush won by 6
1988 Bush won by 20
1984 Reagan won by 24
1980 Reagan won by 18
1976 Ford won by 7
1972 Nixon won by 33
1968 Nixon won by 12
1964 LBJ (D) won by 12
1960 Nixon won by 11
1956 Eisenhower won by 20
1952 Eisenhower won by 17
1948 Dewey won by 1

Does anyone see a pattern? If Indiana is at all close in the Presidential election (let alone goes for the Democrat!), then the Democrat wins nationwide. This is an internal D poll, so it isn't completely trustworthy. But if it is right, then Mitt Romney is cooked hotter than bird droppings on a car roof in Phoenix on a cloudless day in July.

[Reds4]

Romney isn't in a good position in the electoral college overall right now.. but Indiana shouldn't be a problem at all this year. If a D internal shows it 6, then he could easily be up by 8 or 9 in Indiana right now.

[Eraserhead]

Finally, a poll! Looks pretty good for Romney. Obama will need an '08 sized win to have a shot at this.

[pbrower2a]

Romney isn't in a good position in the electoral college overall right now.. but Indiana shouldn't be a problem at all this year. If a D internal shows it 6, then he could easily be up by 8 or 9 in Indiana right now.

Simple fact: if Indiana is at all close, then Mitt Romney has  lost the election because he has lost Ohio.

[Reds4]

Yeah I don't think many people would disagree with that. Mitt needs to win Indiana handily (probably by at least 10) to have a chance in Ohio.

Simple fact: if Indiana is at all close, then Mitt Romney has  lost the election because he has lost Ohio.
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