VA-PPP: Obama over 50%, leads by 5

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/247489047990263810

Obama 51
Romney 46

[Niemeyerite]

Arrrrrrghhh I was finishing my topic about this.

Goode at 1%.

[Miles]

Arrrrrrghhh I was finishing my topic about this.

Goode at 1%.

Lief beat me by about 45 seconds as well

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Turnout at D+3. What was the 2004 party turn out?

[Likely Voter]

Last PPP VA poll was from month ago (after Ryan pick) was also +5 but was 50/45

[Lief 🗽]

It's getting about time to move Virginia to lean Obama as well.

[Person Man]

2004 R+4
2008 D+6

So, given 8 years of demographic change and a relatively neutral year with a Democratic campaign running a little better than the Republican one, you could expect D 2-4.  So, maybe he's not up by 5, but at least by half of that.

[Minnesota Mike]

Nitpicking the crosstabs Whites are overrepresented in this sample IMO (73% vs 70% in 2008) and blacks underrepresented (17% vs 20% in 2008).

[Marokai Backbeat]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/obama-up-5-in-virginia.html

[Mehmentum]

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A very good sign for Obama.  Even if the party ID balance is a bit off, it wouldn't change this enthusiasm number. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Nitpicking the crosstabs Whites are overrepresented in this sample IMO (73% vs 70% in 2008) and blacks underrepresented (17% vs 20% in 2008).

So we have a lower black turnout, a higher white turnout, a party sample slightly less favorable to the President than he enjoyed in 2008... result: Obama +5.  Rasmussen is the only credible pollster showing this as a tossup, and even his GOP-leaning methodology puts Obama ahead.  

I was having my doubts as to where Virginia is, but I think it's about the appropriate time...

Solid Obama - 237
Lean Obama - 51
Tossup - 59
Lean Romney - 0 (his base is solidified, Obama is not winning MO, AZ, IN, or MT)
Solid Romney - 191

I thought about making CO and FL lean Obama, and in reality there's a good chance that they are, but I think Colorado is the type of state where many would backlash against Obama; after all it was one of the first state where his approval started to tank after the initial lovefest.  Florida polling has been very favorable to Obama, but my gut tells me its a tossup.  

North Carolina's last 3 polls have shown 2 leads for Obama, 2 leads for Romney, a tie, and an absurd R+10 from Survey USA.  So, it's a tossup for now... but I give it a 70% of going for Romney if it voted today.  

Romney has a problem though.  As of today, there are 288 EVs in Obama's column.  No way Romney wins NH, OH, VA, WI, or NV if the election were held today.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

57-40 among whites?  This would signify an improvement over 2008.  I would say that's unlikely, but take a look at how whites voted in VA in 2004. 

2004:
Bush - 68
Kerry - 32

2008:
McCain - 60
Obama - 39

Whaddya know?  Almost the exact swing of the state.  Obviously a trend working in favor of the Democrats as well. 

Analysis shows that this is a pretty credible poll... and if Ohio and Virginia are both over 50% for Obama...

would anyone like to enlighten me as to how Romney wins without Ohio OR Virginia?  (EDIT: actually... here it is!)

Romney hits 270 here. 

[Person Man]

So Romney would have to win every other swing state if he doeesn't win Ohio and Virginia?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

So Romney would have to win every other swing state if he doeesn't win Ohio and Virginia?

Yup.  Even NH would put Obama over the top.  And no poll of NH since May has Romney ahead, and Obama hits over 50% in 4 of the 9, 48-49 in 3 others... but 45 in the most recent, yet with a 5 point lead.  With the homogeneity of the NH electorate... there's not too much room for the pollsters to screw up. 

Certainly not "splendid news" for Mr. Romney.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Splendid news, obviously.

[cinyc]

With the homogeneity of the NH electorate... there's not too much room for the pollsters to screw up.

I'm not saying that this is going to happen here, but there's always room for New Hampshire pollsters to screw up.  Remember Obama's 8.3 point lead in the polls before the 2008 Democratic primary?  Clinton ended up wining it.  Homogeneity can't fix last-minute shifts, voters lying to the pollsters or poor poll design.

[MorningInAmerica]

A Rasmussen Poll taken roughly over the same period as this PPP poll found Obama leading 49-48%. So I'll settle on the difference between the two. If Obama's at 51-46 on PPP, I'd say an Obama lead of about 50-47% in Virginia is likely. While that is not a great position for Romney, it's not insurmountable with 7 weeks and 4 debates left in the campaign.

Was doing some playing around with 270-to-win. Great site. I'm definitely not saying this is a likely result for election night, but I would say it's at least feasible.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

A Rasmussen Poll taken roughly over the same period as this PPP poll found Obama leading 49-48%. So I'll settle on the difference between the two. If Obama's at 51-46 on PPP, I'd say an Obama lead of about 50-47% in Virginia is likely. While that is not a great position for Romney, it's not insurmountable with 7 weeks and 4 debates left in the campaign.

Was doing some playing around with 270-to-win. Great site.

Yep. The problem is that there is no room for error here whatsoever. Romney loses Nevada, he loses the election. He loses New Hampshire, he loses the election. He loses Iowa/Wisconsin/Florida, oh you better believe he loses the election.

Romney can still win, but either the dynamics of the race significantly change or his path to victory is akin to threading a needle with a sandblaster.

[President von Cat]

Wait hold on a sec, when did Nevada become a state Romney could possibly win to take the election? It has been more pro-Obama than either Ohio or Virginia, and is a huge source of Latino votes. Just a month or so ago, I thought we had all moved it out of Romney's column pretty much for good. Has something changed?

Because honestly, if Romney is done in OH and VA, I don't see how he can win Nevada.

Anyhow, this entire discussion is likely to be moot if upcoming polls show Wisconsin is back to lean Obama. If it is, Romney is in trouble.

[MorningInAmerica]

Wait hold on a sec, when did Nevada become a state Romney could possibly win to take the election? It has been more pro-Obama than either Ohio or Virginia, and is a huge source of Latino votes. Just a month or so ago, I thought we had all moved it out of Romney's column pretty much for good. Has something changed?

Romney trails Obama on the Nevada RCP average 49-46%. I don't think that puts it out of contention.

[President von Cat]

Wait hold on a sec, when did Nevada become a state Romney could possibly win to take the election? It has been more pro-Obama than either Ohio or Virginia, and is a huge source of Latino votes. Just a month or so ago, I thought we had all moved it out of Romney's column pretty much for good. Has something changed?

Romney trails Obama on the Nevada RCP average 49-46%. I don't think that puts it out of contention.

Does the RCP filter out junk polls? That site's original content is very pro-Romney; I don't really trust them even though everyone seems to cite their poll average.

Looking over their average, first of all Romney is at 45.7. Second of all, it seems this is the result of 3 polls taken since July. I think we need a new Nevada poll!

[Likely Voter]

when Romney starts betting the farm on a path that requires him to win NH, WI and NV...it's time to move on to paying attention to the Senate races as there is nothing left to see here.

[MorningInAmerica]

Wait hold on a sec, when did Nevada become a state Romney could possibly win to take the election? It has been more pro-Obama than either Ohio or Virginia, and is a huge source of Latino votes. Just a month or so ago, I thought we had all moved it out of Romney's column pretty much for good. Has something changed?

Romney trails Obama on the Nevada RCP average 49-46%. I don't think that puts it out of contention.

Does the RCP filter out junk polls? That site's original content is very pro-Romney; I don't really trust them even though everyone seems to cite their poll average.

Looking over their average, first of all Romney is at 45.7. Second of all, it seems this is the result of 3 polls taken since July. I think we need a new Nevada poll!

Pollster will show you the same thing. The last three polls out of Nevada show Obama at +2, +3, and +5. But I do agree we need a new Nevada poll.

[MorningInAmerica]

when Romney starts betting the farm on a path that requires him to win NH, WI and NV...it's time to move on to paying attention to the Senate races as there is nothing left to see here.

Like I said originally, I was really just playing around with the 270 to win site, and made clear I don't find the map I made to be a particularly likely scenario on election night. Rather, I was just trying to show that it's possible, though difficult, for Romney to win the election without either Ohio OR Virginia. I don't personally believe the campaign needs to write off either of those states yet, and don't believe Romney has already lost either of them yet.

[Tender Branson]

Nice. The until now silent Democratic base seems to be highly motivated and eager to turn out.