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A18
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« on: January 26, 2005, 11:27:04 pm »

Your mission is to take over the White House.

...Legally. As in, the 2008 election. No bombs or crazy stuff like that.

What candidate do you pick? What states do you focus on? What's your campaign strategy?

Note: killing voters from the other party that disagree with you is generally a bad idea. Terrorizing cities on election day is also bad, though it would be fun and effective.
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« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2005, 11:52:00 pm »

Evan Bayh/Mark Warner.

I would focus on family values and promoting "responsible government." I would teach Bayh how to get excited over things, and highlight his moderate populist-leaning record. Concentrate on the suburbs - Bayh does very well in rural areas, but not excellently in the suburbs, although Indiananapolis has some pretty hardcore conservative suburbs.

States I'd target:

FLORIDA - Bayh wouldn't get much of a bounce here, except perhaps in the north. It might be hard, but it's definitely in reach.

OHIO - Bayh'd have the benefit against most candidates, but it would be worth a few visits.

VIRGINIA - Bayh would be a good candidate here. He could very will win if effort was put into this state.

NEW HAMPSHIRE - Bayh is not a great candidate for New Hampshire. He would have to work for it, too.

COLORADO - Depending on the opposition, this state could easily be in play.

INDIANA - Not sure how secure it would be. I am always surprised by how many electoral votes Indiana carries.
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« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2005, 12:05:40 am »

I would select Evan Bayh.

Priority #1: Get Bayh a personality/public speaking coach.  He needs to be able to energize not only his base, but potential swing voters.

VP pick:  General Wesley Clark (ret.) - In the post 9/11 world I believe the Democratic ticket must contain some type of military/national security background.


Campaign Logo:  Bayh/Clark  -  A fresh start for America!

Early on I would run a 39 state campaign with extreme focus on Ohio, Indiana, Florida (if she bites early go after her. if not drop her), and Pennsylvania.

Spend a little bit of time in states that show signs of wanting to go Democratic.  If they bite, go after them.  If not, drop them.  Spend even less time in traditional Democratic states.  Just enough to keep the base energized and fired up.

Forget about it states:
Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Mississippi, Alabama, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Idaho, Kansas, South Carolina.

Focus on Bayhs political background.  He has served in both the executive and legislative sides of the Government.  He knows what it takes to get things done for the American people on both sides.  Also, focus on the way he Governed Indiana with approval ratings as high as 80%.  Use Clarks background in the Military to make Americans feel safe and secure.

...Even against an extremley strong GOP ticket I think the election would end up like this.

« Last Edit: January 27, 2005, 10:41:29 am by nickshepDEM »Logged
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« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2005, 12:08:07 am »

I would support Bayh/Richardson. States I'd work for:

Indiana- The Hoosier State would be close, no matter how popular Bayh is there. This state's voting patterns are etched in stone.

Nevada- Richardson would help among Hispanics; I'd stress the Yucca Mountain controversy.

New Mexico- I think this would be an easy pickup for Bayh. Richardson would lock it up, though Bayh's moderate views would also help.

Iowa- It's moderate, Midwestern and it almost voted for Kerry- a perfect state for Bayh.

Ohio- Stress Bayh's moderate social positions, and run on the economy.

West Virginia- Yeah, it went for Bush by 13 points, but Bayh would do great here. See Ohio.

New Hampshire- Bayh's populism will be a tough sell here. Work hard for it; but be prepared for a GOP victory.

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« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2005, 03:15:12 am »

Evan Bayh/Mark Warner.

I would focus on family values and promoting "responsible government." I would teach Bayh how to get excited over things, and highlight his moderate populist-leaning record. Concentrate on the suburbs - Bayh does very well in rural areas, but not excellently in the suburbs, although Indiananapolis has some pretty hardcore conservative suburbs.

States I'd target:

FLORIDA - Bayh wouldn't get much of a bounce here, except perhaps in the north. It might be hard, but it's definitely in reach.

OHIO - Bayh'd have the benefit against most candidates, but it would be worth a few visits.

VIRGINIA - Bayh would be a good candidate here. He could very will win if effort was put into this state.

NEW HAMPSHIRE - Bayh is not a great candidate for New Hampshire. He would have to work for it, too.

COLORADO - Depending on the opposition, this state could easily be in play.

INDIANA - Not sure how secure it would be. I am always surprised by how many electoral votes Indiana carries.

Don't forget Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota.
They might be able to win West Virginia, too.
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« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2005, 06:56:06 am »

Evan Bayh/Harry Reid (He reminds me of Lloyd Bentsen)

Let's assume the GOP runs Bill Frist/Bill Owens. I focus on Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Oregon. Don't both with the Southeast or deep south.

I say, the GOP has had control for 8 years, do you like what they've done? Bayh/Reid brings RESPONSIBLE change. I play up Social moderation big.
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« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2005, 12:05:52 pm »

I hate hearing Democrats acting like Bill Frist will be the nominee.

There is reason to even have a campaign if Bill Frist somehow wins the nomination (which he won't), unless you plan to run a left wing extremist like Hillary Clinton. Anyone else, and he will lose big.
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« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2005, 12:29:09 pm »

I hate hearing Democrats acting like Bill Frist will be the nominee.

There is reason to even have a campaign if Bill Frist somehow wins the nomination (which he won't), unless you plan to run a left wing extremist like Hillary Clinton. Anyone else, and he will lose big.

Lets see your campaign strategy, Philip.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2005, 12:54:14 pm by nickshepDEM »Logged
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« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2005, 10:10:25 pm »

Evan Bayh/Bill Richardson

Immediately begin focusing on Iowa, get the man to be charismatic.  By the time midterms roll around, the man should at least be able to keep a crowd interested. 

Approach to economic policy will be mixed with social policy.  Love thy neighbor and whatnot, try to chip away at the Republican advantage  with social conservatives.

By the time primaries come around, here is how I'd try to play it.  Winning Iowa is an absolute must unless Vilsack runs, which he won't.  Second or third in NH would be preferable.  Concede SC to generic southern candidate, whether it be Warner or Edwards.  For Democrats, run on electability and economic issues, with some foreign policy thrown in, given that he's on the foreign relations commmitee.   

Sound out Richardson first, see if he's interested in the VP spot, or if he's running for President.  If he can help with latinos and hispanics, resources get thrown into Arizona and the rest of the southwest.  If RIchardson agrees, the Bayh campaign focues almost exclusively on the midwest and southwest.  If not, the midwest.  Hopefully, the lack of early southern primaries will take edwards or warner out of the running early, making TN and VA vulnerable.  Once Super Tuesday comes around, it's all or nothing.    Ohio, New York and California.  Hillary will win NY.  Bayh wins Ohio.  CA will be a big prize, leaning Hillary but it would be good to snatch one of those two.  At this point, it comes to the South, and hopefully the Southern candidates have all dropped out at this point.  Bayh should win in the South if it's between him and Hillary. 

General election strategy: the midwest almost exclusively.  Indiana, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.  Take a stab at Missouri and VA.  With Richardson on the ticket, AZ, CO and NM are added to that list.  But Ohio is the biggest target. 
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« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2005, 10:23:59 pm »

I hate hearing Democrats acting like Bill Frist will be the nominee.

There is reason to even have a campaign if Bill Frist somehow wins the nomination (which he won't), unless you plan to run a left wing extremist like Hillary Clinton. Anyone else, and he will lose big.

Hillary Clinton is a left-wing extremist? Is this the same one that voted for war in Iraq? So, what do you call Kucinch?
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« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2005, 12:52:30 am »

If Howard Dean is not the DNC chair, I want Dean-Clark.  If he is the DNC chair (and the party REALLY needs fresh new leadership), then I'd like the nominee to be a governor or mayor (chief executive of the city).  The candidate should be charismatic enough to fire up base voters AND swing voters alike (just like Ronald Reagan).  The candidate should also have an excellent record that will appeal to liberals, moderates, and conservatives (just like Howard Dean).

Most importantly, the candidate has to FIGHT BACK PROMPTLY when the Karl Rove Republican attack machine strikes.  Even if Karl Rove were abducted by aliens, a replacement could easily be found.  Just look at all the web sites about hatred of Britney Spears and Mandy Moore.  A staple of hate web sites is pictures of the star and a contrived snide comment.  One of these hate sites has a picture of Mandy's devout and virtuous character (think of a much younger and prettier Mother Theresa) in the movie _A Walk To Remember_ singing in the church choir and a snide comment saying that she looked like she was about to give oral sex.  That's right, there are a lot of mean, spiteful, hateful people out there, and I'll bet that Karl Rove or one of his successors could convince a significant percentage of the population that Mother Theresa was evil.
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« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2005, 02:44:31 am »

I actually think Hillary would beat Frist, though it would be very close.

Bayh has been overrated for some time now... he is from the same dynastic mold as Bush (that Democrats supposedly hate so much), but without a lick of charisma. And that, by the way, is something you can't be taught. Lee Corso would have a field day with a Bayh candidacy... "it looked good early, but it got real bad late."

The Democrats have a fairly serious problem looking ahead to 2008, insofar as they have no candidates that can both please party activists and the general public. Richardson is not a horrible option for them, but he's not really Presidential material (though for a Democrat Governor he's pretty smart).

Warner is a zero. Breaux would be an impressive candidate but has no chance in hell of winning the nomination. The 2004 competitors were a poor group and none of them need be recycled.

Were I running the DNC, I might at least consider something out of the box. How about an energetic, relatively youthful CEO of a major corporation? Sure, you'd have to find one that's a Democrat, but they're out there. This person could fashion their views to win the primary and then easily shift to the center in the general.

More Corso... "Listen up, this is important:" there are two mistakes Democrats are likely to make, and a third that's quite possible: think a red-state Democrat is gold, think Senators can be elected President, and think that Hillary is the answer after all.

On the other hand, Hillary is superior to a number of Democrats that allegedly could be candidates. That says more about the Dem's farm system than Hillary's strength.
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« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2005, 07:05:47 pm »

I hate hearing Democrats acting like Bill Frist will be the nominee.

There is reason to even have a campaign if Bill Frist somehow wins the nomination (which he won't), unless you plan to run a left wing extremist like Hillary Clinton. Anyone else, and he will lose big.

Hillary Clinton is a left-wing extremist? Is this the same one that voted for war in Iraq? So, what do you call Kucinch?

Kucinch, part of the Loony Left.
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« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2005, 11:26:15 pm »

I hate hearing Democrats acting like Bill Frist will be the nominee.

There is reason to even have a campaign if Bill Frist somehow wins the nomination (which he won't), unless you plan to run a left wing extremist like Hillary Clinton. Anyone else, and he will lose big.

Hillary Clinton is a left-wing extremist? Is this the same one that voted for war in Iraq? So, what do you call Kucinch?

A dwarf Tongue
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« Reply #14 on: January 31, 2005, 12:26:44 am »

Anyone could beat Frist, he is basically just a generic candidate.  So flare, no interest, nothing to make people acctually want to vote for him.  And to think that some GOPers acctually want him in.
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« Reply #15 on: January 31, 2005, 08:00:36 am »

I would select Evan Bayh (Indiana senator) with the possibility of two running mates either Mark Warner (Virginia governor) or Bill Richardson (New Mexico governor)

The case for Evan Bayh – ‘electability’

Bayh’s Indiana base

My reason for selecting Bayh is that he is a bona fide centrist Democrat, who is ideologically a moderate liberal populist. I feel that Bayh would be a strong Democratic candidate in that he has successfully, won five statewide races in the ‘deep red’ [i.e. heavily Republican] state of Indiana. According to the CNN exit poll, in his senate race last fall, Bayh enjoyed the support of 35% of Indiana’s Republicans and 37% of her conservatives; thus, confirming that Bayh commands much bi-partisan and cross-ideological appeal. Bayh also commands overwhelming support from Indiana’s ideological moderates and independents. Being a successful Democrat in Indiana, proves he has 'electibility'

Disadvantages?

There are two downsides to Bayh’s candidacy. Firstly, Bayh lacks charisma and secondly, incumbent senators don’t tend to be elected president.

However, while Bayh lacks charisma, his common sense approach could be a winner and something tells me that Bayh will be a ‘buck stops here’ president – a governing principle, which explains why he voted against confirming Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State [“Those in charge need to be held accountable for mistakes”] – and besides after another four years of Bush’s own and congressional excesses, the electorate may be in the mood for a president, who is a cautious, moderately progressive pragmatist, governing from the ideological centre in the interests of the nation and beyond the parameters of left and right. While lacking charisma, he is certainly telegenic. Charisma is arguably an innate quality, some have it while others don’t – but even then it’s relative, some think George W Bush has it, others don’t. Besides isn’t it more important to have a proven record of responsibility and competence in governance, than to be charismatic?

As for the ‘handicap’ of being an incumbent senator, Bayh was a successful two-term governor of Indiana and can run on a competent executive record, as well as that of a legislator. As governor, Bayh was consistently popular, with approval ratings approaching 80% and he met challenges such as the rising costs of Medicaid, the need for more prisons and getting Indiana through a recession without a tax hike, all while balancing the budget

Before John Kerry selected John Edwards as his 2004 running mate, Republican pollster Frank Lutz was asked by a TV network to test the appeal of seven potential running mates. Luntz read a description and played a video clip of each Democrat to a group of swing voters and the voters liked the Indiana senator best. Luntz commented, “I think he would make an incredible candidate. I think he has the attributes that will appeal to swing voters that John Kerry lost this time. A centrist approach. A positive outlook. A gentle demeanour”

Now having selected Bayh – it’s time to devise a strategy

Bayh needs to raise his profile by identifying a couple of issues in the Senate that matter to him and become a national spokesperson on them. Bayh has proved he can raise money. He had in excess of $7 million in campaign funds as at 13 October 2004, the third most of any senator. Bayh needs to court state Democratic parties across the length and breadth of America in preparation for the caucuses and primaries, in event of a higher profile candidate such as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York emerging. She herself is gravitating to the political centre and reaching out for the ‘common ground’ but isn’t Bayh the more genuine article?

Should Bayh run and be successfully be nominated as the Democratic presidential nominee, I think both Mark Warner and Bill Richardson would bring advantages to the ticket. Warner is a moderate southerner, as opposed to a liberal southerner, like Edwards (nominating a southerner to the ticket proves the Democratic Party hasn’t forgotten the south) and Richardson for his experience and his appeal to Hispanic voters in the southwest

The results of the 2004 election with critical states such as Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (holdovers from 2000); together with New Hampshire mean that these states will be battleground states come 2008. The consequence of having so many contested elections in blue states puts the Democratic Party in the position of a football team playing most of the game on defence within its own half of the playing field. Even with a good defence, the GOP is going to score (as they did in New Mexico and Iowa last fall). In sum come 2008, Bayh should compete in Republican turf to avoid the GOP polarising the election. Since there are more conservatives (34%) than liberals (21%) – a polarised election almost certainly guarantees a GOP victory

The Mid West

Bayh could potentially bag the ‘critical’ Mid West and his campaign should focus on Iowa, Missouri and Ohio (states that would be well within his grasp). Bayh should win his home state of Indiana – but it will be no easy feat. Granted, I doubt that he will secure the support of 35% of her Republicans and 37% of her conservatives, but he should receive enough support from independents and moderates to see him cross the finish line

Bayh can’t afford to neglect the states of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin and will need to visit to rally the base. He has the homeboy regional advantage, which Kerry lacked, and should receive a greater proportion of moderate voters and a more significant share of conservative voters than the liberal Kerry did

The only state in the region that may be out of his grasp is Kentucky. Clinton won it twice – but with Perot running as a relatively strong third candidate. However, being a moderate from Indiana, gives Bayh a good outside chance bearing in mind over 1 in 4 Kentucky Democrats voted for Bush

The South

I’d advise Bayh to focus on the three states of Arkansas, Florida and Louisiana; while testing the waters in Virginia, North Carolina and Tennessee. With Warner on the ticket, I think Bayh can compete in those three states, as well as West Virginia (technically, not the South but culturally similar). A staggering 30% of West Virginia’s Democrats voted for the hard-core conservative Bush over the libertarian-leaning liberal, Kerry – and in a state, which voted for his fellow Massachusetian Michael Dukasis back in 1988

The North East and Pacific West

In respect of the North East and Pacific West, Bayh should hold rallies to rally the base. He’d need to pay particular attention to Oregon and Pennsylvania and his moderate stance on social issues will make him highly competitive in West Virginia, as well as consolidating his position in Pennsylvania. New Hampshire will be a tough fight and he’ll need to spend time in New Jersey

Elsewhere, Bayh should campaign heavily in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico (states well within his reach). Richardson on the ticket is sure to shore up the Hispanic vote, which could make Bayh competitive in Arizona

Give’ em a miss, Evan!

States where Bayh has no chance are primarily in the Deep South (Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas), the Rocky Mountains (Idaho, Utah and Wyoming) and the Great Plains (North Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma). Bayh should test the waters in Montana and South Dakota but if they fail to bite early, drop them

Conclusions

The surprising thing about the 2004 election is that the 28 states with the lowest average per capita income, 26 voted against their economic interests and supported Bush. Many of these states should be within reach for Democratic Party, especially with Bayh having a socially moderate record, which he should successfully incorporate into his campaign message

Bayh’s overall strategy should be to move the Democratic Party towards the ideological and geographical centre by emphasising national security, economic growth, fiscal discipline and by making government accountable, and then by showing that the she is in tune with middle American values. There, I’ve said it, “values”. Given the saliency of values as an electoral issue in the 2004 election, it is something the Democratic Party can’t afford to neglect if she is once again to become the majority party. Social justice and economic fairness are moral issues. The natural party of progress should embrace the social gospel because right-wing fundamentalism emerged partly in reaction to it and by doing so, and by stressing Christ's outreach, they can compete for the hearts and minds of the faithful

The lesson to learn about 2004 is that 11% of Democrats nationally supported George W Bush. This cost Kerry victory in several states most notably Ohio, Nevada, Iowa and New Mexico

Evan Bayh is the candidate, who could unite his party’s left, right and centrist flanks by being moderate enough to reach out to socially conservative Democrats, like those of West Virginia, who found the liberal Kerry a turn-off

Dave
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« Reply #16 on: January 31, 2005, 09:58:19 am »

Great analysis, Hawk. 

Evan Bayh is the candidate, who could unite his party’s left, right and centrist flanks by being moderate enough to reach out to socially conservative Democrats, like those of West Virginia, who found the liberal Kerry a turn-off

The only problem with Bayh is that the far left liberals hate the guy.  If Bayh does get the nomination, only a very small percentage of the far left would vote for him.  That would result in a third party candidate like Nader getting 1-2 million votes which can cripple a campaign especially if it comes down to one or two states like 2000 and 2004. 
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« Reply #17 on: January 31, 2005, 12:04:38 pm »

Great analysis, Hawk. 

Evan Bayh is the candidate, who could unite his party’s left, right and centrist flanks by being moderate enough to reach out to socially conservative Democrats, like those of West Virginia, who found the liberal Kerry a turn-off

The only problem with Bayh is that the far left liberals hate the guy.  If Bayh does get the nomination, only a very small percentage of the far left would vote for him.  That would result in a third party candidate like Nader getting 1-2 million votes which can cripple a campaign especially if it comes down to one or two states like 2000 and 2004. 

We'll just have to hope that the far-left liberals come to their senses or lets face it the GOP is going take the political asecendancy for some years yet. Moderates comprise a majority of Democratic voters and its these folk, who need to take the party back to the centre

I came across someone who felt that Bayh wouldn't get the nomination due to the very fact that he would have appeal in 'red' states. If true, it's worrying. How on earth are the Democratic Party to gain the presidency if it can't pull in a few marginal 'red' states?

Failing that, is it possible that, should the GOP select a moderate like Giuliani, who won't play well with the Christian Right, a conservative candidate would emerge? Now that would be an interesting race come 2008

Dave
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« Reply #18 on: February 01, 2005, 09:37:16 am »

I hate hearing Democrats acting like Bill Frist will be the nominee.

There is reason to even have a campaign if Bill Frist somehow wins the nomination (which he won't), unless you plan to run a left wing extremist like Hillary Clinton. Anyone else, and he will lose big.

Hillary Clinton is a left-wing extremist? Is this the same one that voted for war in Iraq? So, what do you call Kucinch?

Kucinch, part of the Loony Left.


hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

How many times have you said "loony left" now. It's rooted solely in your own ideological viewpoints. It's so pathetic.
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« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2005, 09:38:21 am »

unless you plan to run a left wing extremist like Hillary Clinton.

Oh get a grip!
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« Reply #20 on: February 03, 2005, 09:54:10 pm »

Jeb Bush/J.C. Watts

You would have to assume that Jeb carries every state that Dubya carried.  Being Catholic, (a real one, not like Kerry) Jeb would also have a better chance at taking WI, MN, MI, and NH.  It would also help strengthen his margins in IA, NM, AZ, and CO, and shave the margins down in places like IL, and the North East.

The inclusion of J.C. Watts (a very charismatic, conservative Af-AM) would help put IL even more into play and could help shave of the NYC vote from Dems in NY.  His being on the ticket would also help in places like MD and NJ.

Jeb's Columbian born wife, and his fluency in Spanish, could very well negate any potential VP candidacy of Richardson.  Jeb's Latino connections could shave the margins down somewhat in CA. 

I figure that a well run campaign could net the GOP 40-45 states.
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« Reply #21 on: February 03, 2005, 10:48:15 pm »

George Voinovich/ Jeb Bush

Pros: Voinovich is a moderate from a very important swing state. He was Mayor of Cleveland, Governor for eight years, and a two term Senator, also extremely popular in Ohio.
 Jeb is also from a very critical swing state, a Catholic with strong Latino ties. His family could really help in the campaign.
Both are extremely wealthy, and very popular in there home states. Being a Bush could either Hurt or help, wouldn’t know yet.
Both seem very nice and likable.

Cons: Neither is very charismatic. GWB just served eight years.


Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania would be the biggest swing states, but with a Midwesterner and a catholic, I think they could pull off 35 states or so.
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« Reply #22 on: February 03, 2005, 11:03:27 pm »

I don't have the time right now, because I have a test tomorrow, but I will do sperate strategies for:

Mitt Romney, Norm Coleman, George Pataki and maybe some others, if I feel like it.
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #23 on: February 03, 2005, 11:25:03 pm »

The inclusion of J.C. Watts (a very charismatic, conservative Af-AM) would help put IL even more into play and could help shave of the NYC vote from Dems in NY.  His being on the ticket would also help in places like MD and NJ.


I saw him on Crossfire once and he didnt impress me at all.  He was debating Jesse Jackson and got his clock cleaned.  If the Democrats ever suspected the GOP may nominate an African American as VP they would nominate one and offset the huge African American voter turnout.

What do you think the best case scenario would be for the GOP if they nominated an African American as VP?  Do you think they would get over 50% of the African American vote or somewhere near 20%?  (Bush only received 8%)
« Last Edit: February 03, 2005, 11:32:35 pm by nickshepDEM »Logged
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« Reply #24 on: February 03, 2005, 11:32:00 pm »

The only way you can beat Jessie Jackson is to be as rude to him as he is to you.  I doubt that J.C. would stoop to that level.  Did Jessie even let him answer a question without constantly interrupting?

I used to follow J.C.'s  career in the Congress, and watched him campaign for Dubya in this past election.  I found him very impressive, though I have to admit that I didn't see the debate with the "Reverend" Jackson, so I'll take your word for his performance at that forum.
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