If you were a chief political operative...

[Democratic Hawk]

I would select Evan Bayh (Indiana senator) with the possibility of two running mates either Mark Warner (Virginia governor) or Bill Richardson (New Mexico governor)

The case for Evan Bayh – ‘electability’

Bayh’s Indiana base

My reason for selecting Bayh is that he is a bona fide centrist Democrat, who is ideologically a moderate liberal populist. I feel that Bayh would be a strong Democratic candidate in that he has successfully, won five statewide races in the ‘deep red’ [i.e. heavily Republican] state of Indiana. According to the CNN exit poll, in his senate race last fall, Bayh enjoyed the support of 35% of Indiana’s Republicans and 37% of her conservatives; thus, confirming that Bayh commands much bi-partisan and cross-ideological appeal. Bayh also commands overwhelming support from Indiana’s ideological moderates and independents. Being a successful Democrat in Indiana, proves he has 'electibility'

Disadvantages?

There are two downsides to Bayh’s candidacy. Firstly, Bayh lacks charisma and secondly, incumbent senators don’t tend to be elected president.

However, while Bayh lacks charisma, his common sense approach could be a winner and something tells me that Bayh will be a ‘buck stops here’ president – a governing principle, which explains why he voted against confirming Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State [“Those in charge need to be held accountable for mistakes”] – and besides after another four years of Bush’s own and congressional excesses, the electorate may be in the mood for a president, who is a cautious, moderately progressive pragmatist, governing from the ideological centre in the interests of the nation and beyond the parameters of left and right. While lacking charisma, he is certainly telegenic. Charisma is arguably an innate quality, some have it while others don’t – but even then it’s relative, some think George W Bush has it, others don’t. Besides isn’t it more important to have a proven record of responsibility and competence in governance, than to be charismatic?

As for the ‘handicap’ of being an incumbent senator, Bayh was a successful two-term governor of Indiana and can run on a competent executive record, as well as that of a legislator. As governor, Bayh was consistently popular, with approval ratings approaching 80% and he met challenges such as the rising costs of Medicaid, the need for more prisons and getting Indiana through a recession without a tax hike, all while balancing the budget

Before John Kerry selected John Edwards as his 2004 running mate, Republican pollster Frank Lutz was asked by a TV network to test the appeal of seven potential running mates. Luntz read a description and played a video clip of each Democrat to a group of swing voters and the voters liked the Indiana senator best. Luntz commented, “I think he would make an incredible candidate. I think he has the attributes that will appeal to swing voters that John Kerry lost this time. A centrist approach. A positive outlook. A gentle demeanour”

Now having selected Bayh – it’s time to devise a strategy

Bayh needs to raise his profile by identifying a couple of issues in the Senate that matter to him and become a national spokesperson on them. Bayh has proved he can raise money. He had in excess of $7 million in campaign funds as at 13 October 2004, the third most of any senator. Bayh needs to court state Democratic parties across the length and breadth of America in preparation for the caucuses and primaries, in event of a higher profile candidate such as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York emerging. She herself is gravitating to the political centre and reaching out for the ‘common ground’ but isn’t Bayh the more genuine article?

Should Bayh run and be successfully be nominated as the Democratic presidential nominee, I think both Mark Warner and Bill Richardson would bring advantages to the ticket. Warner is a moderate southerner, as opposed to a liberal southerner, like Edwards (nominating a southerner to the ticket proves the Democratic Party hasn’t forgotten the south) and Richardson for his experience and his appeal to Hispanic voters in the southwest

The results of the 2004 election with critical states such as Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (holdovers from 2000); together with New Hampshire mean that these states will be battleground states come 2008. The consequence of having so many contested elections in blue states puts the Democratic Party in the position of a football team playing most of the game on defence within its own half of the playing field. Even with a good defence, the GOP is going to score (as they did in New Mexico and Iowa last fall). In sum come 2008, Bayh should compete in Republican turf to avoid the GOP polarising the election. Since there are more conservatives (34%) than liberals (21%) – a polarised election almost certainly guarantees a GOP victory

The Mid West

Bayh could potentially bag the ‘critical’ Mid West and his campaign should focus on Iowa, Missouri and Ohio (states that would be well within his grasp). Bayh should win his home state of Indiana – but it will be no easy feat. Granted, I doubt that he will secure the support of 35% of her Republicans and 37% of her conservatives, but he should receive enough support from independents and moderates to see him cross the finish line

Bayh can’t afford to neglect the states of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin and will need to visit to rally the base. He has the homeboy regional advantage, which Kerry lacked, and should receive a greater proportion of moderate voters and a more significant share of conservative voters than the liberal Kerry did

The only state in the region that may be out of his grasp is Kentucky. Clinton won it twice – but with Perot running as a relatively strong third candidate. However, being a moderate from Indiana, gives Bayh a good outside chance bearing in mind over 1 in 4 Kentucky Democrats voted for Bush

The South

I’d advise Bayh to focus on the three states of Arkansas, Florida and Louisiana; while testing the waters in Virginia, North Carolina and Tennessee. With Warner on the ticket, I think Bayh can compete in those three states, as well as West Virginia (technically, not the South but culturally similar). A staggering 30% of West Virginia’s Democrats voted for the hard-core conservative Bush over the libertarian-leaning liberal, Kerry – and in a state, which voted for his fellow Massachusetian Michael Dukasis back in 1988

The North East and Pacific West

In respect of the North East and Pacific West, Bayh should hold rallies to rally the base. He’d need to pay particular attention to Oregon and Pennsylvania and his moderate stance on social issues will make him highly competitive in West Virginia, as well as consolidating his position in Pennsylvania. New Hampshire will be a tough fight and he’ll need to spend time in New Jersey

Elsewhere, Bayh should campaign heavily in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico (states well within his reach). Richardson on the ticket is sure to shore up the Hispanic vote, which could make Bayh competitive in Arizona

Give’ em a miss, Evan!

States where Bayh has no chance are primarily in the Deep South (Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas), the Rocky Mountains (Idaho, Utah and Wyoming) and the Great Plains (North Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma). Bayh should test the waters in Montana and South Dakota but if they fail to bite early, drop them

Conclusions

The surprising thing about the 2004 election is that the 28 states with the lowest average per capita income, 26 voted against their economic interests and supported Bush. Many of these states should be within reach for Democratic Party, especially with Bayh having a socially moderate record, which he should successfully incorporate into his campaign message

Bayh’s overall strategy should be to move the Democratic Party towards the ideological and geographical centre by emphasising national security, economic growth, fiscal discipline and by making government accountable, and then by showing that the she is in tune with middle American values. There, I’ve said it, “values”. Given the saliency of values as an electoral issue in the 2004 election, it is something the Democratic Party can’t afford to neglect if she is once again to become the majority party. Social justice and economic fairness are moral issues. The natural party of progress should embrace the social gospel because right-wing fundamentalism emerged partly in reaction to it and by doing so, and by stressing Christ's outreach, they can compete for the hearts and minds of the faithful

The lesson to learn about 2004 is that 11% of Democrats nationally supported George W Bush. This cost Kerry victory in several states most notably Ohio, Nevada, Iowa and New Mexico

Evan Bayh is the candidate, who could unite his party’s left, right and centrist flanks by being moderate enough to reach out to socially conservative Democrats, like those of West Virginia, who found the liberal Kerry a turn-off

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Great analysis, Hawk. 

Evan Bayh is the candidate, who could unite his party’s left, right and centrist flanks by being moderate enough to reach out to socially conservative Democrats, like those of West Virginia, who found the liberal Kerry a turn-off

The only problem with Bayh is that the far left liberals hate the guy.  If Bayh does get the nomination, only a very small percentage of the far left would vote for him.  That would result in a third party candidate like Nader getting 1-2 million votes which can cripple a campaign especially if it comes down to one or two states like 2000 and 2004. 

We'll just have to hope that the far-left liberals come to their senses or lets face it the GOP is going take the political asecendancy for some years yet. Moderates comprise a majority of Democratic voters and its these folk, who need to take the party back to the centre

I came across someone who felt that Bayh wouldn't get the nomination due to the very fact that he would have appeal in 'red' states. If true, it's worrying. How on earth are the Democratic Party to gain the presidency if it can't pull in a few marginal 'red' states?

Failing that, is it possible that, should the GOP select a moderate like Giuliani, who won't play well with the Christian Right, a conservative candidate would emerge? Now that would be an interesting race come 2008

Dave