PPP Wisconsin Obama 49-Romney 48

[pa2011]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/106153060/PPP-baldwin-pollResults-9-16-12

[tmthforu94]

Better than I expected.

They also have Baldwin ahead by 3, and I'm not sure I'm buying that.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Typical for PPP lately, they overpolled Republicans. They show the GOP with a +4 edge.

[Franzl]

Typical for PPP lately, they overpolled Republicans. They show the GOP with a +4 edge.

What polling firms do you think are legitimate?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Typical for PPP lately, they overpolled Republicans. They show the GOP with a +4 edge.

What polling firms do you think are legitimate?

I'm stating a fact: They showed the GOP with a +4 edge. In a state Obama won by 14%.

[Devils30]

I think this ones a private poll. They're doing WI again later this week as well.

[User157088589849]

I've been hearing on the ground that the Tammy-Tommy race is closer than people think. But I didn't think it would be this close. Tommy has changed alot of his positions post primary.

 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think this ones a private poll. They're doing WI again later this week as well.

So they're doing 2 different polls to please 2 different audiences? That's integrity!

[Franzl]

I think this ones a private poll. They're doing WI again later this week as well.

So they're doing 2 different polls to please 2 different audiences? That's integrity!

So again: is there any polling firm you think is alright?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So again: is there any polling firm you think is alright?

I always thought Pew and Marist were tolerable.

[pa2011]

Think this poll is probably legit.  Essentially a tie with a + 4 R electorate. But assume GOP base in Wisconsin is about tapped out post-Ryan, so if Obama can motivate Democratic base, he should still win narrowly. Also, will be kind of hard for Republicans to dismiss such a close race in Wisconsin in a PPP poll without also having to accept PPP found Obama up 5 in Virginia.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Then again, pollsters weight their findings based on earlier elections, so if the earlier elections were rigged, that skews the results.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Think this poll is probably legit.  Essentially a tie with a + 4 R electorate.

You're not gonna have +4 R in Wisconsin in a presidential year. You just won't.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Just so we're clear, how, uh, plausible is this R+4 thing? Were the various recalls like that? Was 2010, even?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Just so we're clear, how, uh, plausible is this R+4 thing? Were the various recalls like that? Was 2010, even?

Among folks who voted in the recall, which Walker won by 7%, Obama was leading by 12%.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

The 2010 Gubernatorial was D+1. 37D/36R/27I

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This is actually a 2 point improvement for Obama compared to PPP's August poll of the state.  I'll be keeping my prediction for Wisconsin (slight Obama) where it is for now.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The 2010 Gubernatorial was D+1. 37D/36R/27I

So either the crosstabs here puked up some sort of error or PPP is going by some sort of 'Virtua Ryan drives GOP base turnout into the ionosphere' model. Got it. Thanks.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The 2010 Gubernatorial was D+1. 37D/36R/27I

Aw, how cute. PPP thinks there's been a 5-point trend to the GOP in Wisconsin since 2010.

Also, Wisconsin isn't going to swing 13 points against Obama when he's doing as well nationally as he did in 2008.

[LiberalJunkie]

Hahahaha this is a Republican wet dream.

[Lief 🗽]

Party IDs for Wisconsin:

2008: D+6
2010: D+1
2012 recall: R+1

This poll: R+4

Make of that what you will.

[krazen1211]

Just so we're clear, how, uh, plausible is this R+4 thing? Were the various recalls like that? Was 2010, even?

Scott Walker has been spending the last couple years creating new Republicans in the Green Bay Metro and in Waukesha.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Party IDs for Wisconsin:

2008: D+6
2010: D+1
2012 recall: R+1

This poll: R+4

Make of that what you will.

Bandit gets out his trusty calculator...

Obama leads in ol' Wisc by 11.

[Lief 🗽]

Just so we're clear, how, uh, plausible is this R+4 thing? Were the various recalls like that? Was 2010, even?

Scott Walker has been spending the last couple years creating new Republicans in the Green Bay Metro and in Waukesha.

You seriously think the 2012 general election electorate will be considerably more Republican than the recall electorate???

[Umengus]

Party IDs for Wisconsin:

2008: D+6
2010: D+1
2012 recall: R+1

This poll: R+4

Make of that what you will.

and in 2004 ?