PPP Wisconsin Obama 49-Romney 48

[Umengus]

Considering this poll, it seems that the dem base is not so motivated...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

and in 2004 ?

This isn't 2004.

We have alternative media now.

[krazen1211]

Just so we're clear, how, uh, plausible is this R+4 thing? Were the various recalls like that? Was 2010, even?

Scott Walker has been spending the last couple years creating new Republicans in the Green Bay Metro and in Waukesha.

You seriously think the 2012 general election electorate will be considerably more Republican than the recall electorate???

Probably roughly the same. The Democrats can think they can win merely by finding more votes in Madison and Milwaukee, but we already know that turnout in those counties was high. The lowest turnout counties except for Menominee were Walker Counties and that is where Paul Ryan will go to find more votes.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Remember also that the recall election took place during summer break when students who usually vote in Madison weren't in town.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Party IDs for Wisconsin:

2008: D+6
2010: D+1
2012 recall: R+1

This poll: R+4

Make of that what you will.

and in 2004 ?

R+3...

[MorningInAmerica]

Wow - if you didn't know any better, you'd think party ID all of a sudden meant something around here. I thought party ID was irrelevant, unrealiable, volatile, an amateur's game?

I always figured that once we got a favorable looking R sample from someone, a lot of those that thought so little of Party ID would start complaining. R+4 in Wisconsin is certainly no more ridiculous than that stupid D+10 sample of likely voters in Ohio from the Marist poll last week, but I didn't hear any Democrats complaining about that.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It's not going to be R+4, and Obama still leads in this poll.

Democrats shouldn't panic, but this is definitely a tossup and a pickup target for Romney.

[Likely Voter]

With OH trending away, WI has become central to Romney's main strategy to 270...winning NC, FL, VA, CO, IA and WI gets him to 273 (leaving no margin for error). So I expect them to put a big effort into winning it.

As there seems to be some debates on the merits of this one maybe NBC Marist will add some info later this week. They are doing 3 more swing states this week, hopefully WI is this week. If not they will do it next week.

[afleitch]

This is actually a 2 point improvement for Obama compared to PPP's August poll of the state.  I'll be keeping my prediction for Wisconsin (slight Obama) where it is for now.

I've always been a believer, both in the USA and also in the UK to always compare 'like for like polls.' Compared to the last PPP poll (on which PPP polls need to be measured) you are correct. It's curious how little this state has been polled.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Just so we're clear, how, uh, plausible is this R+4 thing? Were the various recalls like that? Was 2010, even?

Scott Walker has been spending the last couple years creating new Republicans in the Green Bay Metro and in Waukesha.

Three to five points' worth?

It's foolish to deny that this is a state to be concerned about--perhaps more so than Ohio, even, at this rate--but it still seems odd. Odder than the party ID I think is the fact that Baldwin is ahead by more than Obama. THAT strikes me as bizarre.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow - if you didn't know any better, you'd think party ID all of a sudden meant something around here. I thought party ID was irrelevant, unrealiable, volatile, an amateur's game?

I always figured that once we got a favorable looking R sample from someone, a lot of those that thought so little of Party ID would start complaining. R+4 in Wisconsin is certainly no more ridiculous than that stupid D+10 sample of likely voters in Ohio from the Marist poll last week, but I didn't hear any Democrats complaining about that.

I just think it's odd that when the party ID is obviously ridiculous, but in the Republicans' favor, the usual suspects don't seem to make a big deal of it. But if the party ID isn't a good 4 or 5 points less Democratic than it was in 2012, suddenly the poll is suspect.

[krazen1211]

Just so we're clear, how, uh, plausible is this R+4 thing? Were the various recalls like that? Was 2010, even?

Scott Walker has been spending the last couple years creating new Republicans in the Green Bay Metro and in Waukesha.

Three to five points' worth?

It's foolish to deny that this is a state to be concerned about--perhaps more so than Ohio, even, at this rate--but it still seems odd. Odder than the party ID I think is the fact that Baldwin is ahead by more than Obama. THAT strikes me as bizarre.

In those areas of the state, roughly so, if you compare, say, the tied result of Bush-Kerry to the 7 point victory of Walker-Barrett. Bush actually did better in Dane and Milwaukee County than Walker did.

I suspect that the second observation you made has to do with the fact that Baldwin paid for the poll.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I suspect that the second observation you made has to do with the fact that Baldwin paid for the poll.

That would make sense.

[mondale84]

Joke poll. No way that Republican turnout will be better than 2004. PPP is just trolling to show Baldwin outperforming Obama...

[MorningInAmerica]

I just think it's odd that when the party ID is obviously ridiculous, but in the Republicans' favor, the usual suspects don't seem to make a big deal of it.

And I find it odd for the opposite reason - the users who poo-poo party ID all of a sudden care on the 'once-in-a-blue-moon' occasion that Republicans get oversampled. And if I remember correctly Lief, you didn't seem to have any problems with that Ohio poll w/ the D+10 party ID.

[Umengus]

With OH trending away, WI has become central to Romney's main strategy to 270...winning NC, FL, VA, CO, IA and WI gets him to 273 (leaving no margin for error). So I expect them to put a big effort into winning it.

As there seems to be some debates on the merits of this one maybe NBC Marist will add some info later this week. They are doing 3 more swing states this week, hopefully WI is this week. If not they will do it next week.

Ohio is not trending away...

[mondale84]

I just think it's odd that when the party ID is obviously ridiculous, but in the Republicans' favor, the usual suspects don't seem to make a big deal of it.

And I find it odd for the opposite reason - the users who poo-poo party ID all of a sudden care on the 'once-in-a-blue-moon' occasion that Republicans get oversampled. And if I remember correctly Lief, you didn't seem to have any problems with that Ohio poll w/ the D+10 party ID.

Because that's a reasonable party ID for Ohio given current circumstances. Ohioans don't like Mitt the Pioneer of Outsourcing and more and more of them are sticking with the current president.

It's disingenuous that you should buy this troll job in Wisconsin when you had a problem with the ID in Ohio. Party ID in Wisconsin is heading toward D + 6-8 given current trends.

[Devils30]

I think Obama wins it something like 51-47

[Sbane]

Somebody needs to poll Iowa ASAP!

[Likely Voter]

Does anyone think both new PPP polls are accurate? Obama +5 in VA and +1 in WI?  That would be a huge swing divergence between the two states vs. 2008. 

[Sbane]

That is why I want an Iowa poll. Maybe there is something going on in the rural upper midwest.

[Umengus]

Does anyone think both new PPP polls are accurate? Obama +5 in VA and +1 in WI?  That would be a huge swing divergence between the two states vs. 2008. 

I would give Va +1 and WI +5 for Obama

[MorningInAmerica]

I just think it's odd that when the party ID is obviously ridiculous, but in the Republicans' favor, the usual suspects don't seem to make a big deal of it.

And I find it odd for the opposite reason - the users who poo-poo party ID all of a sudden care on the 'once-in-a-blue-moon' occasion that Republicans get oversampled. And if I remember correctly Lief, you didn't seem to have any problems with that Ohio poll w/ the D+10 party ID.

Because that's a reasonable party ID for Ohio given current circumstances. Ohioans don't like Mitt the Pioneer of Outsourcing and more and more of them are sticking with the current president.

It's disingenuous that you should buy this troll job in Wisconsin when you had a problem with the ID in Ohio. Party ID in Wisconsin is heading toward D + 6-8 given current trends.

Reasonable according to who? Look Mondale, it was D+8 in a year that shattered records for Democrats throughout the country. In 2004, it was R+5. In 2006, another strong Democratic year, party ID for the Ohio Senate race was D+3. (the 2010 numbers have disappeared from CNN's website)

So based on those figures, surely you can see how R+4 in Wisconsin (where it was recently R+1 just a few months ago in their recall, and was R+3 back in 2004), is really no MORE or LESS ridiculous than a D+10 electorate in Ohio this November will be. You're certainly allowed to think Dem turnout will be higher this November than it was four years ago, but that is a purely subjective belief. One that I don't think is very well grounded in reality. And not agreeing with your Ohio turnout assessment certainly doesn't make one "disingenuous" anymore than expecting D+10 turnout makes you crazy.

Edited to note that I was about to spit out my drink when I thought Mondale was going to write an entire two paragraphs without saying "troll." Then reality took hold.

[mondale84]

I just think it's odd that when the party ID is obviously ridiculous, but in the Republicans' favor, the usual suspects don't seem to make a big deal of it.

And I find it odd for the opposite reason - the users who poo-poo party ID all of a sudden care on the 'once-in-a-blue-moon' occasion that Republicans get oversampled. And if I remember correctly Lief, you didn't seem to have any problems with that Ohio poll w/ the D+10 party ID.

Because that's a reasonable party ID for Ohio given current circumstances. Ohioans don't like Mitt the Pioneer of Outsourcing and more and more of them are sticking with the current president.

It's disingenuous that you should buy this troll job in Wisconsin when you had a problem with the ID in Ohio. Party ID in Wisconsin is heading toward D + 6-8 given current trends.

Reasonable according to who? Look Mondale, it was D+8 in a year that shattered records for Democrats throughout the country. In 2004, it was R+5. In 2006, another strong Democratic year, party ID for the Ohio Senate race was D+3. (the 2010 numbers have disappeared from CNN's website)

So based on those figures, surely you can see how R+4 in Wisconsin (where it was recently R+1 just a few months ago in their recall, and was R+3 back in 2004), is really no MORE or LESS ridiculous than a D+10 electorate in Ohio this November will be. You're certainly allowed to think Dem turnout will be higher this November than it was four years ago, but that is a purely subjective belief. One that I don't think is very well grounded in reality. And not agreeing with your Ohio turnout assessment certainly doesn't make one "disingenuous" anymore than expecting D+10 turnout makes you crazy.

Edited to note that I was about to spit out my drink when I thought Mondale was going to write an entire two paragraphs without saying "troll." Then reality took hold.

Listen, you can continue to live in denial and reject the idea that the Democratic base is energized and that Mitt Romney is the most feared Republican nominee since Goldwater, but you can't seriously expect me to believe that you subscribe to the idea that Republican turnout in Wisconsin will result in an electorate that is R + 4. If you had been sincere about your comments about party ID, you would have complained about this poll in that vain.

Instead, you continue to attack a poll of Ohio that is D + 10 while completely failing to mention a poll that you call "equally ridiculous" in terms of party ID. That is the definition of disingenuous, especially considering that Wisconsin is a more Democratic state than Ohio. Ergo, you are implying that Ohio would probably have a party ID for greater than R + 4 which is completely ridiculous.

But, you can continue to spin, as long as you can sleep with yourself at night...

[DrScholl]

If Romney is trailing in an R+4 sample, I wouldn't think his chances are that great, since turnout will probably be less Republican than that.