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  KY-SurveyUSA: Romney has large lead in the state
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Author Topic: KY-SurveyUSA: Romney has large lead in the state  (Read 3890 times)
Mister Twister
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« Reply #25 on: September 16, 2012, 11:00:19 pm »

I'm happy to get a poll out of a state like Kentucky. All these Virginia, Ohio and Florida polls are boring.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: September 16, 2012, 11:15:43 pm »

Bandit: Do you have a map prediction for Kentucky this election?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #27 on: September 16, 2012, 11:17:23 pm »

Bandit: Do you have a map prediction for Kentucky this election?

I know I posted one a few months ago, but I don't know where it went.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #28 on: September 16, 2012, 11:28:09 pm »

Back in April, I made a map that has these counties flipping to Obama: Boyd, Mason, Robertson, Bath, Floyd, Woodford, Franklin, Carroll, Marion, Warren, Muhlenberg, Daviess, Union.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #29 on: September 17, 2012, 12:22:39 am »

Back in April, I made a map that has these counties flipping to Obama: Boyd, Mason, Robertson, Bath, Floyd, Woodford, Franklin, Carroll, Marion, Warren, Muhlenberg, Daviess, Union.

I doubt all of those counties would flip to Obama. In fact, I doubt most of them will even under the best of circumstances.

Outer ring suburban growth in Louisville and Lexington  will not be enough to create a major shift to the left in Kentucky. Most states, especially southern states, have to undergo a massive influx of millions of new residents before the politics change. We're talking about Florida or North Carolina growth rates. And to give you some numbers, Florida and North Carolina each grew by about 18% in the last decade. Kentucky grew by 7%.

If not the growth rates, what is it about Kentucky that leads you to believe it will become a swing state in the future? I really really just do not see it, and god knows I'd like to.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #30 on: September 17, 2012, 12:24:59 am »

If not the growth rates, what is it about Kentucky that leads you to believe it will become a swing state in the future?

Because it didn't fall as far as the rest of the South did, so it doesn't have as far to climb.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #31 on: September 17, 2012, 12:45:52 am »

If not the growth rates, what is it about Kentucky that leads you to believe it will become a swing state in the future?

Because it didn't fall as far as the rest of the South did, so it doesn't have as far to climb.

But it doesn't work that way. Trends don't reverse themselves overnight. Kentucky has been trending R since 1996, and Obama did historically poorly in the only area of the state left that still supported Democrats (eastern Kentucky). Your belief isn't backed by any facts of hard data.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #32 on: September 17, 2012, 12:49:37 am »

But it doesn't work that way. Trends don't reverse themselves overnight. Kentucky has been trending R since 1996, and Obama did historically poorly in the only area of the state left that still supported Democrats (eastern Kentucky). Your belief isn't backed by any facts of hard data.

But he did historically well in Louisville and Lexington.
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mondale84
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« Reply #33 on: September 17, 2012, 02:51:25 pm »

I bet Obama gets to 43-44% the way things are going...
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #34 on: September 17, 2012, 02:54:23 pm »

I bet Obama gets to 43-44% the way things are going...

He got 41 last time, so I think 45 is a real possibility.
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Scott
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« Reply #35 on: September 17, 2012, 02:58:45 pm »

But it doesn't work that way. Trends don't reverse themselves overnight. Kentucky has been trending R since 1996, and Obama did historically poorly in the only area of the state left that still supported Democrats (eastern Kentucky). Your belief isn't backed by any facts of hard data.

But he did historically well in Louisville and Lexington.

Is there meaningful population growth in those areas that may potentially flip the state in the future?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #36 on: September 17, 2012, 03:00:56 pm »

Is there meaningful population growth in those areas that may potentially flip the state in the future?

Yes.

And there's meaningful population loss in the rural counties.
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Sbane
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« Reply #37 on: September 17, 2012, 03:29:04 pm »

Tennessee will flip before Kentucky, and Tennessee ain't flipping.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #38 on: September 17, 2012, 03:30:01 pm »

Tennessee will flip before Kentucky, and Tennessee ain't flipping.

Wasn't Romney up by only 1% in a TN poll?
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #39 on: September 17, 2012, 03:37:11 pm »

I have KY for Romney and TN for Obama - so yes I could see it.
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Scott
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« Reply #40 on: September 17, 2012, 03:41:57 pm »

Tennessee will flip before Kentucky, and Tennessee ain't flipping.

Wasn't Romney up by only 1% in a TN poll?

That was an outlier.
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mondale84
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« Reply #41 on: September 17, 2012, 04:18:14 pm »

Tennessee will flip before Kentucky, and Tennessee ain't flipping.

Wasn't Romney up by only 1% in a TN poll?

That was an outlier.

Except there has been no Tennessee poll that has had Romney up by more than 8...
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Scott
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« Reply #42 on: September 17, 2012, 04:19:55 pm »

Tennessee will flip before Kentucky, and Tennessee ain't flipping.

Wasn't Romney up by only 1% in a TN poll?

That was an outlier.

Except there has been no Tennessee poll that has had Romney up by more than 8...

Out of how many polls?  Safe GOP states are not being surveyed this year.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #43 on: September 17, 2012, 04:42:04 pm »

A lot of hackery on this thread. Obama aint winning Tennessee and he certainly aint winning Kentucky. He certainly could improve, but he's not the right Democrat to win these states, and I'm not sure any national Democratic candidate could make that happen right now. Romney is an acceptable choice for most of these voters solely because he's not Barack Obama.
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Sbane
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« Reply #44 on: September 17, 2012, 05:04:14 pm »

A lot of hackery on this thread. Obama aint winning Tennessee and he certainly aint winning Kentucky. He certainly could improve, but he's not the right Democrat to win these states, and I'm not sure any national Democratic candidate could make that happen right now. Romney is an acceptable choice for most of these voters solely because he's not Barack Obama.

Clinton could possibly make it happen, but he would also be receiving 55-56% of the vote nationally.
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TNF
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« Reply #45 on: September 18, 2012, 11:31:34 am »

A lot of hackery on this thread. Obama aint winning Tennessee and he certainly aint winning Kentucky. He certainly could improve, but he's not the right Democrat to win these states, and I'm not sure any national Democratic candidate could make that happen right now. Romney is an acceptable choice for most of these voters solely because he's not Barack Obama.

Hillary would win this state easily.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #46 on: September 18, 2012, 11:45:27 am »

Hillary would win this state easily.

If Obama can't win it, Hillary won't.

I bet Kentuckians would love Brian Schweitzer though.
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sbane
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« Reply #47 on: September 18, 2012, 12:21:34 pm »

A lot of hackery on this thread. Obama aint winning Tennessee and he certainly aint winning Kentucky. He certainly could improve, but he's not the right Democrat to win these states, and I'm not sure any national Democratic candidate could make that happen right now. Romney is an acceptable choice for most of these voters solely because he's not Barack Obama.

Hillary would win this state easily.

Haha no.
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Miles
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« Reply #48 on: September 18, 2012, 12:23:43 pm »

A lot of hackery on this thread. Obama aint winning Tennessee and he certainly aint winning Kentucky. He certainly could improve, but he's not the right Democrat to win these states, and I'm not sure any national Democratic candidate could make that happen right now. Romney is an acceptable choice for most of these voters solely because he's not Barack Obama.

Hillary would win this state easily.

Really? Bill Clinton's victories there were pretty close and it was trending R even in 1996.
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sbane
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« Reply #49 on: September 18, 2012, 12:24:50 pm »

A lot of hackery on this thread. Obama aint winning Tennessee and he certainly aint winning Kentucky. He certainly could improve, but he's not the right Democrat to win these states, and I'm not sure any national Democratic candidate could make that happen right now. Romney is an acceptable choice for most of these voters solely because he's not Barack Obama.

Hillary would win this state easily.

Really? Bill Clinton's victories there were pretty close and it was trending R even in 1996.

I think Bill would win it currently, but he would likely be winning by double digits nationwide.
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