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  AP poll it`s tied
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Author Topic: AP poll it`s tied  (Read 615 times)
Ben Romney
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« on: September 19, 2012, 05:25:39 am »

http://news.yahoo.com/poll-obama-job-approval-rising-race-still-tight-070314606--election.html

Obama/Romney: 47/46
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2012, 05:32:59 am »

Well, this poll doesn't make much sense.

Obama's job approval is 52% among likely voters in this poll and yet he only gets 47% against Romney. Since Romney certainly isn't a particularly well liked figure, that's very hard believe.

Obama also leads 52%-37% among all adults, for the record.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2012, 08:35:04 am »

If Obama still loses while having a huge generic lead. That means that either Romney "stole" the election with his TOTV (Throw Out The Vote) or Obama simply has a horrible GOTV machine...or Karl Rove, when teamed with the Cock brothers is really that good.
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sobo
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2012, 12:34:51 pm »

This poll seems like it had an extremely strong LV screen. There were 1282 registered voters who went for Obama 50/40, but only 807 were counted as likely voters. This seems especially strange as 1103 people rated themselves as 10/10 under the likeliness to vote category.
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Umengus
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2012, 12:58:37 pm »

the party id of the LV sample: D 31 R 30 I 30 and 9% refused to answer.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2012, 01:18:01 pm »

This is like the ABC/WaPo poll in that it shows a bump for Obama on RV with a big lead but then has a very strict LV model showing only a 1% lead.

Essentially both models are saying, sure you Obama voters say you are going to vote, but we really don't believe you. Clearly if we had a 100% turnout election, Obama would win in a huge landslide. He would also win if we have another 2008 style turnout, but if it drops down to the 50% range (meaning more minorities and young voters dont show up), then he is probably going to lose.   

Before the DNC I thought that turnout might actually be around 51% but now it appears the Dems are fired up. It might fade but for now, I doubt this LV model is right.
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mondale84
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2012, 01:29:13 pm »

Junk poll. No way that a 15 point lead among adults goes down to 1 point among LV. I can see it going down to 8 points, but a 14-point gap makes no sense.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2012, 01:44:59 pm »

Junk poll. No way that a 15 point lead among adults goes down to 1 point among LV. I can see it going down to 8 points, but a 14-point gap makes no sense.

Well while AA is an interesting number, but you do need to be a RV to become an LV.

The real issue is with this...
There were 1282 registered voters who went for Obama 50/40, but only 807 were counted as likely voters.

That works out to about 62.9% turnout (among RVs), which would be the lowest turnout in modern history. It was 74.4% in 2008. It will likely be lower, but that much lower?
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