YouGov polls 27 states
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Author Topic: YouGov polls 27 states  (Read 11878 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #50 on: September 21, 2012, 08:15:58 AM »

New Poll: Iowa President by YouGov on 2012-09-19

Summary: D: 48%, R: 42%, I: 0%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #51 on: September 21, 2012, 08:20:23 AM »

New Poll: Florida President by YouGov on 2012-09-19

Summary: D: 48%, R: 46%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #52 on: September 21, 2012, 08:31:05 AM »

The "morning" group is already out:

CONNECTICUT

LV (with leaners): 53-40 Obama
LV (without leaners): 50-36 Obama

RV (with leaners): 53-39 Obama
RV (without leaners): 50-35 Obama

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ux5joszhew/Tabs_CT.pdf

MINNESOTA

LV (with leaners): 50-42 Obama
LV (without leaners): 46-38 Obama

RV (with leaners): 50-41 Obama
RV (without leaners): 46-38 Obama

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/hqsq5tocn6/Tabs_MN.pdf

NEW JERSEY

LV (with leaners): 52-40 Obama
LV (without leaners): 48-38 Obama

RV (with leaners): 53-39 Obama
RV (without leaners): 47-37 Obama

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/1hvstxmtl6/Tabs_NJ.pdf

NEW MEXICO

LV (with leaners): 51-43 Obama
LV (without leaners): 47-39 Obama

RV (with leaners): 53-41 Obama
RV (without leaners): 49-37 Obama

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/4g5j4fmz4g/Tabs_NM.pdf

WASHINGTON

LV (with leaners): 53-39 Obama
LV (without leaners): 50-38 Obama

RV (with leaners): 52-39 Obama
RV (without leaners): 50-37 Obama

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ed14wj782v/Tabs_WA.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #53 on: September 21, 2012, 11:53:29 AM »

The "noon" group has been released:

ILLINOIS

LV (with leaners): 59-36 Obama
LV (without leaners): 56-34 Obama

RV (with leaners): 59-35 Obama
RV (without leaners): 55-33 Obama

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/pwpwjt1405/Tabs_IL.pdf

MARYLAND

LV (with leaners): 57-37 Obama
LV (without leaners): 55-35 Obama

RV (with leaners): 58-36 Obama
RV (without leaners): 55-33 Obama

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/toysli9ta0/Tabs_MD.pdf

NEW YORK

LV (with leaners): 58-36 Obama
LV (without leaners): 55-33 Obama

RV (with leaners): 58-34 Obama
RV (without leaners): 54-31 Obama

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/b2q1jii89x/Tabs_NY.pdf

MASSACHUSETTS

LV (with leaners): 55-39 Obama
LV (without leaners): 52-36 Obama

RV (with leaners): 56-37 Obama
RV (without leaners): 53-34 Obama

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/g578gnq4we/Tabs_MA.pdf

CALIFORNIA

LV (with leaners): 56-39 Obama
LV (without leaners): 54-37 Obama

RV (with leaners): 56-38 Obama
RV (without leaners): 54-36 Obama

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/jjrzpgk0uy/Tabs_CA.pdf
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #54 on: September 21, 2012, 12:08:12 PM »

Those all seem about right.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #55 on: September 21, 2012, 12:12:23 PM »


Yes, but the "afternoon" group will be much more telling.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #56 on: September 21, 2012, 12:21:16 PM »

The important "afternoon" group has now been released:

GEORGIA

LV (with leaners): 51-44 Romney
LV (without leaners): 50-42 Romney

RV (with leaners): 50-44 Romney
RV (without leaners): 47-42 Romney

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/s84v88k5v7/Tabs_GA.pdf

INDIANA

LV (with leaners): 50-45 Romney
LV (without leaners): 47-41 Romney

RV (with leaners): 50-44 Romney
RV (without leaners): 47-40 Romney

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/e15b4u6lkx/Tabs_IN.pdf

MISSOURI

LV (with leaners): 50-43 Romney
LV (without leaners): 46-39 Romney

RV (with leaners): 49-43 Romney
RV (without leaners): 44-39 Romney

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/amppyv6vun/Tabs_MO.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #57 on: September 21, 2012, 12:26:43 PM »

TENNESSEE

LV (with leaners): 50-42 Romney
LV (without leaners): 48-38 Romney

RV (with leaners): 49-42 Romney
RV (without leaners): 45-36 Romney

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/1lsn1kauw9/Tabs_TN.pdf

TEXAS

LV (with leaners): 53-41 Romney
LV (without leaners): 51-39 Romney

RV (with leaners): 52-41 Romney
RV (without leaners): 49-38 Romney

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/s6a0a1vyw5/Tabs_TX.pdf

ARIZONA

LV (with leaners): 51-41 Romney
LV (without leaners): 48-40 Romney

RV (with leaners): 51-41 Romney
RV (without leaners): 48-39 Romney

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/9h4ma1z63z/Tabs_AZ.pdf
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Craigo
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« Reply #58 on: September 21, 2012, 12:32:41 PM »

Outside the margins lead for Romney in AZ. Maybe in four years.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #59 on: September 21, 2012, 12:33:03 PM »

Those are some pretty poor numbers for Romney in the South.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #60 on: September 21, 2012, 12:33:49 PM »

Holy crap Tennessee! Obama only down 8!
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #61 on: September 21, 2012, 12:35:05 PM »

Holy crap Tennessee! Obama only down 8!

His opponent is a Mormon, so....
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #62 on: September 21, 2012, 12:36:21 PM »

Those are some pretty poor numbers for Romney in the South.

Yeah, TX is to be expected. AZ disappoints me. TN is shaping up to be much closer than in 2008 for some reason. IN & GA are as expected (I don't buy that InsiderAdvantage crack poll).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #63 on: September 21, 2012, 12:45:54 PM »

Map of the results so far:

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afleitch
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« Reply #64 on: September 21, 2012, 01:00:03 PM »

Will it be possible to pool these results and get a national PV estimate?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #65 on: September 21, 2012, 01:02:50 PM »

Will it be possible to pool these results and get a national PV estimate?

Most of these state polls look like a mix of 2004 and 2008, with a lean towards 2008.

So, it would yield a national lead of about 4% or so for Obama.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #66 on: September 21, 2012, 01:06:48 PM »

I hope they release new polls for SC, ND, WY, LA, MS, RI, AK soon. Those are badly needed.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #67 on: September 21, 2012, 02:28:30 PM »

Holy crap Tennessee! Obama only down 8!

This further confirms the idea of an Appalachian rebound for Obama.  I wonder if Romney is also under McCain numbers in places like VA-09 and VA-05...

A Schweitzer or Warner type might be able to revive the Clinton coalition in 2016 if this keeps up. 
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Devils30
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« Reply #68 on: September 21, 2012, 03:01:02 PM »

Hillary could revive it too
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #69 on: September 21, 2012, 03:15:06 PM »


Well, obviously.  I doubt that she will run, though.  I will say that if Dems really are gaining back this much rural ground, a Cuomo nomination in 2016 would be a big mistake.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #70 on: September 21, 2012, 03:20:42 PM »
« Edited: September 21, 2012, 07:41:25 PM by pbrower2a »

Blank map.



I am going to put YouGov polls here. They seem to be interactive, and thus suspect by one of my standards, so I will not incorporate them into my other model. This is a different color scheme from that model with four levels of saturation... and white.  Likely voters only. I'm going on margins. I will show districts for Maine and Nebraska, if available.

The slate --



Because someone has set up another map based on vote totals, please do not confuse this one with that one. I go on margins. Remember -- YouGov only -- not ARG, Marist, PPP, Purple Strategies, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, Survey USA, etc. Likely voters only, and I go with leaners.

I prefer margins until the election is settled and official... but until votes are cast and counted. It is far easier at this point to overturn a 50.1-49.7 lead than it is to overturn a 48.1-45.3 lead, let alone a 58-41 lead.  

Obama red --   2-3% pink, 4-9% red, 10-19% maroon, 20% or more deep red

Romney blue -- 2-3% light blue, 4-9% medium blue, 10-19% navy , 20%+ midnight blue


Those are 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80% saturation

1% or less either way -- white (yellow 10% because the number shows).


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #71 on: September 21, 2012, 04:33:43 PM »

Holy crap Tennessee! Obama only down 8!

This further confirms the idea of an Appalachian rebound for Obama.  I wonder if Romney is also under McCain numbers in places like VA-09 and VA-05...

A Schweitzer or Warner type might be able to revive the Clinton coalition in 2016 if this keeps up. 

Barack Obama was a d@mn-yankee cosmopolitan egghead in 2008 and still is. Mitt Romney has no ties to the American South; neither does Paul Ryan.  Contrast John McCain, who has cultural ties to Mississippi.

Southern moderates and populists can win in the South -- like Carter in 1976 and Clinton twice.
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User157088589849
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« Reply #72 on: September 21, 2012, 04:52:01 PM »

I worked for YouGov from 2006-2011. seriously.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #73 on: September 21, 2012, 05:24:14 PM »
« Edited: September 21, 2012, 05:36:08 PM by classical liberal »

Given that every state has LV results, why were all of the swing states (CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI) entered into the database with the RV results instead?
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classical liberal
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« Reply #74 on: September 21, 2012, 05:47:26 PM »

Blank map.



I am going to put YouGov polls here. They seem to be interactive, and thus suspect by one of my standards, so I will not incorporate them into my other model. This is a different color scheme from that model with four levels of saturation... and white.  Likely voters only. I'm going on margins. I will show districts for Maine and Nebraska, if available.

The slate --



Because someone has set up another map based on vote totals, please do not confuse this one with that one. I go on margins. Remember -- YouGov only -- not ARG, Marist, PPP, Purple Strategies, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, Survey USA, etc. Likely voters only, and I go with leaners.

I prefer margins until the election is settled and official... but until votes are cast and counted. It is far easier at this point to overturn a 50.1-49.7 lead than it is to overturn a 48.1-45.3 lead, let alone a 58-41 lead.  

Obama red --   2-3% pink, 4-9% red, 10-19% maroon, 15% or more deep red

Romney blue -- 2-3% light blue, 4-10% medium blue, 10-10% navy , 20%+ midnight blue


Those are 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80% saturation

1% or less either way -- white (yellow 10% because the number shows).




Why do you have different thresholds for the saturation levels of Obama leads than for Romney
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