YouGov polls 27 states

[pbrower2a]

Blank map.

I am going to put YouGov polls here. They seem to be interactive, and thus suspect by one of my standards, so I will not incorporate them into my other model. This is a different color scheme from that model with four levels of saturation... and white.  Likely voters only. I'm going on margins. I will show districts for Maine and Nebraska, if available.

The slate --

Because someone has set up another map based on vote totals, please do not confuse this one with that one. I go on margins. Remember -- YouGov only -- not ARG, Marist, PPP, Purple Strategies, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, Survey USA, etc. Likely voters only, and I go with leaners.

I prefer margins until the election is settled and official... but until votes are cast and counted. It is far easier at this point to overturn a 50.1-49.7 lead than it is to overturn a 48.1-45.3 lead, let alone a 58-41 lead.  

Obama red --   2-3% pink, 4-9% red, 10-19% maroon, 20% or more deep red

Romney blue -- 2-3% light blue, 4-9% medium blue, 10-19% navy , 20%+ midnight blue


Those are 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80% saturation

1% or less either way -- white (yellow 10% because the number shows).

[pbrower2a]

Holy crap Tennessee! Obama only down 8!

This further confirms the idea of an Appalachian rebound for Obama.  I wonder if Romney is also under McCain numbers in places like VA-09 and VA-05...

A Schweitzer or Warner type might be able to revive the Clinton coalition in 2016 if this keeps up. 

Barack Obama was a d@mn-yankee cosmopolitan egghead in 2008 and still is. Mitt Romney has no ties to the American South; neither does Paul Ryan.  Contrast John McCain, who has cultural ties to Mississippi.

Southern moderates and populists can win in the South -- like Carter in 1976 and Clinton twice.

[pbrower2a]

Why do you have different thresholds for the saturation levels of Obama leads than for Romney

Corrected. Thank you.