2012 With Gary Johnson as a Factor

[JRP1994]

2012 election. Everything happens as it did in real life, except Gary Johnson is included in all 3 presidential debates, and Jim Gray is included in the VP debate. Assume that neither Johnson nor Gray made a major gaffe, and both held their own, as average.

Assume that the Johnson/Gray ticket goes into election day polling somewhere between Ralph Nader 2000 and Ross Perot 1996 levels.

How does this effect the electoral map? Discuss with maps.

[JerryArkansas]

It would really depend, He could have gotten to about 5% nationally and up to 10% out west.  He could have actually taken votes away from Obama, and made this a tighter race.

[Maxwell]

I think Obama wins North Carolina, other than that, the numbers don't really change too much. If Johnson gets around 5% in this scenario that he's actually in the debates, which the polling suggests is likely, than the election numbers would be:

Barack Obama: 49.4%
Mitt Romney: 44.7%
Gary Johnson: 5.0%
Others: 0.9%

He draws a little bit more from Romney than he does Obama (about 40% Obama 60% Romney are my estimates, though I could be wrong), but the margin of win for Obama says that even without Johnson, Romney couldn't have won, so I don't think its too much of a Nader took the election deal.

And then that would allow the Libertarians on the ballot for 2016, but they probably wouldn't nominate another Johnson type again so they lose it so overall, nothing really happens.

[Obamanation]

Obama picks up NC and GA is closer, but only the percentages change beyond that.

[badgate]

With Gary Johnson a factor early enough for the first debate, wouldn't OFA have been able to divert resources from some of the quasi-safe states (Iowa, colorado, nevada) to some potential upsets like GA or AZ? I think so.

[Undecided Voter in the Midwest]

With Gary Johnson a factor early enough for the first debate, wouldn't OFA have been able to divert resources from some of the quasi-safe states (Iowa, colorado, nevada) to some potential upsets like GA or AZ? I think so.

I could see Georgia flipping in that scenario... though Arizona probably wouldn't.