Mason-Dixon: Obama/Romney tied in FL, Romney+9 in MT, Obama+8 in MN

[Tender Branson]

Link

Link

[Eraserhead]

Predictions:

MT: Romney +7

FL: Romney +1

[Niemeyerite]

MT: Romney +5
FL: Obama +2

[Tender Branson]

I'll try one too:

MT: Romney+8
FL: Obama+2

[J. J.]

MT: Romney+7
FL: Obama+1

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

MT: Romney +8
FL: Obama +3

[minionofmidas]

Mason-Dixon will really set the cat among the pigeons by declaring Obama up in Montana beyond the margin of error. (They will also be found to have been wrong or at least massively overstating things, by the other pollsters dutifully trudging into Montana.)

Heh. If we can make free predictions.

[J. J.]

Mason-Dixon will really set the cat among the pigeons by declaring Obama up in Montana beyond the margin of error. (They will also be found to have been wrong or at least massively overstating things, by the other pollsters dutifully trudging into Montana.)

Heh. If we can make free predictions.

Is there a Senate race there?  Testor, or am I thinking about another state?

[minionofmidas]

Mason-Dixon will really set the cat among the pigeons by declaring Obama up in Montana beyond the margin of error. (They will also be found to have been wrong or at least massively overstating things, by the other pollsters dutifully trudging into Montana.)

Heh. If we can make free predictions.

Is there a Senate race there?  Testor, or am I thinking about another state?

Yes, but there aren't very many polls, for a highly competitive race in a small state. Partly because Montana is a bit of a bitch to poll IIRC.

[minionofmidas]

Lol, this made me look for this site's poll archive and stumble upon this way down on the main page

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The 2006 Senate election will come up again? Fine with me, it was nice to watch!

[Reds4]

I'll guess it shows

MT: Romney +6
FL: Obama +2

[minionofmidas]

Florida poll is Obama 46, Romney 45. Also, Floridans agree what everyone else told them before the election, that Rick Scott is not a suitable candidate to be Governor of himself, let alone Florida [/hyperbole].

http://www.cfnews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/7/13/florida_decides_poll_0.html
http://www.cfnews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/9/20/florida_decides_poll.html

Montana seems to be releasing piecemeal; I found Reps leading the House race by 8, a generic legislative ballot by 7 and trailing in the Governor's race by 1, but no Senate or Presidential figures yet.

[Ben Romney]

th´s not the new poll.s the July issue!!!
my predictions are

 FL: Romney+1
 MT Romney +9

[Tender Branson]

Florida poll is Obama 46, Romney 45.

Lewis, these are the July numbers.

The real numbers are probably out tomorrow for both states.

[minionofmidas]

Florida poll is Obama 46, Romney 45.

Lewis, these are the July numbers.

The real numbers are probably out tomorrow for both states.

DON'T TELL ME I CANNOT READ!

[opebo]

I'll guess

MT: Romney +8
FL: Obama +2

[pa2011]

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/barack-obama-mitt-romney-essentially-tied-in-florida-new-timesheraldbay/1252518

Last poll had it 46 to 45 Obama, so no real movement one way or another. But Obama is up 11 points with independents and is ahead in Tampa Bay region.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I normally would trust Mason Dixon, especially in Florida, but if Obama is up 11 amongst independents, then this must be a really Republican sample.

[pa2011]

Yea, I have found that sometimes Mason Dixon polls in a variety of states seem to somewhat under poll Democrats. Then again, it could just be a really good poll and nail where the race stands at the moment, Obama by 1 point, which is not much different than his 2008 victory margin.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

...Obama won Florida by 2.8 points in 2008.

[Tender Branson]

The crosstabs make sense:

Democrats: 87-11 Obama
Republicans: 92-4 Romney
Independents: 51-40 Obama

Obama Approval: 47-45

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http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/bn9/2012/9/21/exclusive_poll_obama.html

[Tender Branson]

The comparable poll from Mid-Sept. 2008 was 47-45 Obama:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=1220080918009

[Ben Romney]

FL:
Obama/Romney: 48/47
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 50/46.6

Nelson/Mack: 48/40
my numbers: Nelson/Mack: 46.9/ 44

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/sites/tampabay.com.blogs.the-buzz-florida-politics/files/fl912poll_1.doc

1) Way undesamples Independents
2) D+5 sampling is +2 better than 2008 and
+9 better than 2004 in a state that in
2010 GOP held on to the Senate race, a
Governor race, two House races and
took four House seats from the
Democrats for a 4-0-2 record. Sure.
3) Revert back to the 2008 breakdown
and you have Romney in the lead.majority of undecideds do not approve of Obama or disapprove of O. R gets better crossover from Dems than Obama of Reps

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nobody cares about your made up numbers... either make a special thread for no one to read... or STOP IT.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There is an interesting point to be made about Independents though. They are surging in numbers everywhere, yet are vanishing from the polls. Are they staying home because of the negativity so far in the campaign?