Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2019, 04:08:17 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Mason-Dixon: Obama/Romney tied in FL, Romney+9 in MT, Obama+8 in MN
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Mason-Dixon: Obama/Romney tied in FL, Romney+9 in MT, Obama+8 in MN  (Read 3282 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,399
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 21, 2012, 12:34:14 am »
« edited: September 24, 2012, 04:53:55 pm by Dave Leip »

Link

Link
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,312
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2012, 01:14:49 am »

Predictions:

MT: Romney +7

FL: Romney +1
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,576
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2012, 04:43:12 am »

MT: Romney +5
FL: Obama +2
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,399
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2012, 04:47:02 am »

I'll try one too:

MT: Romney+8
FL: Obama+2
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,806
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2012, 08:17:34 am »




MT: Romney+7
FL: Obama+1
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,563
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2012, 08:18:28 am »

MT: Romney +8
FL: Obama +3
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,288
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2012, 09:11:15 am »

Mason-Dixon will really set the cat among the pigeons by declaring Obama up in Montana beyond the margin of error. (They will also be found to have been wrong or at least massively overstating things, by the other pollsters dutifully trudging into Montana.)

Heh. If we can make free predictions.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,806
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2012, 09:13:51 am »

Mason-Dixon will really set the cat among the pigeons by declaring Obama up in Montana beyond the margin of error. (They will also be found to have been wrong or at least massively overstating things, by the other pollsters dutifully trudging into Montana.)

Heh. If we can make free predictions.

Is there a Senate race there?  Testor, or am I thinking about another state?
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,288
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2012, 09:18:01 am »

Mason-Dixon will really set the cat among the pigeons by declaring Obama up in Montana beyond the margin of error. (They will also be found to have been wrong or at least massively overstating things, by the other pollsters dutifully trudging into Montana.)

Heh. If we can make free predictions.

Is there a Senate race there?  Testor, or am I thinking about another state?
Yes, but there aren't very many polls, for a highly competitive race in a small state. Partly because Montana is a bit of a bitch to poll IIRC.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,288
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2012, 09:24:31 am »

Lol, this made me look for this site's poll archive and stumble upon this way down on the main page
Quote from: Dave Leip
2006: provides information on the upcoming 2006 Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections
The 2006 Senate election will come up again? Fine with me, it was nice to watch! Cheesy
Logged
Reds4
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 787


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2012, 11:30:06 am »

I'll guess it shows

MT: Romney +6
FL: Obama +2
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,288
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2012, 03:57:33 am »

Florida poll is Obama 46, Romney 45. Also, Floridans agree what everyone else told them before the election, that Rick Scott is not a suitable candidate to be Governor of himself, let alone Florida [/hyperbole].

http://www.cfnews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/7/13/florida_decides_poll_0.html
http://www.cfnews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/9/20/florida_decides_poll.html

Montana seems to be releasing piecemeal; I found Reps leading the House race by 8, a generic legislative ballot by 7 and trailing in the Governor's race by 1, but no Senate or Presidential figures yet.
Logged
Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 395
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2012, 09:04:26 am »

th΄s not the new poll.s the July issue!!!
my predictions are

 FL: Romney+1
 MT Romney +9
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,399
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2012, 12:06:51 pm »

Florida poll is Obama 46, Romney 45.

Lewis, these are the July numbers.

The real numbers are probably out tomorrow for both states.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,288
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2012, 12:51:49 pm »

Florida poll is Obama 46, Romney 45.

Lewis, these are the July numbers.

The real numbers are probably out tomorrow for both states.
DON'T TELL ME I CANNOT READ! Angry
Logged
opebo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,088


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2012, 01:00:40 pm »
« Edited: September 23, 2012, 06:55:13 am by Tender Branson »

I'll guess

MT: Romney +8
FL: Obama +2
Logged
pa2011
Full Member
***
Posts: 234
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2012, 10:53:14 pm »

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/barack-obama-mitt-romney-essentially-tied-in-florida-new-timesheraldbay/1252518

Last poll had it 46 to 45 Obama, so no real movement one way or another. But Obama is up 11 points with independents and is ahead in Tampa Bay region.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 41,667
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2012, 10:54:56 pm »

I normally would trust Mason Dixon, especially in Florida, but if Obama is up 11 amongst independents, then this must be a really Republican sample.
Logged
pa2011
Full Member
***
Posts: 234
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2012, 10:57:42 pm »
« Edited: September 22, 2012, 10:59:26 pm by pa2011 »

Yea, I have found that sometimes Mason Dixon polls in a variety of states seem to somewhat under poll Democrats. Then again, it could just be a really good poll and nail where the race stands at the moment, Obama by 1 point, which is not much different than his 2008 victory margin.
Logged
Hugo Award nominee
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,518


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2012, 11:01:32 pm »

...Obama won Florida by 2.8 points in 2008.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,399
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2012, 12:20:59 am »

The crosstabs make sense:

Democrats: 87-11 Obama
Republicans: 92-4 Romney
Independents: 51-40 Obama

Obama Approval: 47-45

Quote
Breaking down the numbers

Digging deeper into the numbers, President Obama held a 52–43 percent lead over Romney when it comes to the critically important Hispanic vote in Florida. Five percent of Florida Hispanics were still undecided.

Among black voters in Florida, 95 percent said they would vote for Obama, with only 4 percent backing Romney, and 1 percent saying they were undecided.

Romney had a 15-point advantage among white voters, up 55–40 percent over Obama. One percent of white voters chose the Libertarian ticket, and 4 percent were undecided.

The vote was also different between men and women voters. Men leaned toward Romney 53–42 percent, while women favored Obama 55–40 percent. One percent of both men and women said they would vote for Gary Johnson, and 4 percent of both men and women said they were still undecided.

The Libertarian vote was highest in the 35–49 age bracket, in which 2 percent of voters said they preferred Gary Johnson. The top two candidates were again separated by just 1 percent, with Obama on the winning side, 48–47 percent. Three percent said they were undecided.

Among Florida's youngest voters, those between ages 18 and 34, Obama held a 59–37 lead over Romney, with 4 percent undecided.

Voters between ages 50 and 64 favored Romney 48–46 percent over Obama, but the undecided vote in that age bracket rose to 6 percent.

More than half of those polled who were 65 or older favored Romney, who was up 51 percent to Obama's 45 percent in that group. Three percent were undecided, and 1 percent picked Johnson.

Finally, among the crucial independent voters -- those who said they don't identify with either major party -- Obama held a strong lead, 51 percent to just 40 percent of independents favoring Romney. Two percent chose the Libertarian ticket, with 7 percent remaining undecided, the largest percentage of undecided voters in any group regarding the race for the White House.

Not surprisingly, Romney held the favor of 92 percent of Republicans, with 4 percent crossing the aisle and siding with Obama instead, and another 4 percent undecided.

But the poll more Democrats crossing the aisle and voting for Romney, 11 percent, leaving Obama with 87 percent support from his party, and the remaining 2 percent undecided.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/bn9/2012/9/21/exclusive_poll_obama.html
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,399
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2012, 12:59:06 am »

The comparable poll from Mid-Sept. 2008 was 47-45 Obama:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=1220080918009
Logged
Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 395
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2012, 06:28:28 am »

FL:
Obama/Romney: 48/47
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 50/46.6

Nelson/Mack: 48/40
my numbers: Nelson/Mack: 46.9/ 44

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/sites/tampabay.com.blogs.the-buzz-florida-politics/files/fl912poll_1.doc

1) Way undesamples Independents
2) D+5 sampling is +2 better than 2008 and
+9 better than 2004 in a state that in
2010 GOP held on to the Senate race, a
Governor race, two House races and
took four House seats from the
Democrats for a 4-0-2 record. Sure.
3) Revert back to the 2008 breakdown
and you have Romney in the lead.majority of undecideds do not approve of Obama or disapprove of O. R gets better crossover from Dems than Obama of Reps
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,563
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2012, 06:45:25 am »

Nobody cares about your made up numbers... either make a special thread for no one to read... or STOP IT.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 41,667
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2012, 06:48:58 am »

There is an interesting point to be made about Independents though. They are surging in numbers everywhere, yet are vanishing from the polls. Are they staying home because of the negativity so far in the campaign?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines