A trend in the Virginia governor's races.

[DanimalBr]

The year after presidential elections are an off election year for most of the country, and a time when most people can take a break from politics for a while.  But not here in Virgina.  Virginia traditionally holds their governor's elections in the year following the presidential elections.  2005 is looking like it's gonna be Republican Jerry Kilgore versus the current lt. governor, Democrat Tim Kaine.  The current governor, Democrat Mark Warner, will be ineligible to run due to state law which prevents any governor from serving two consecutive terms in Virgina.

Now there is a trend that corresponds with the presidential elections the previous year.  And the trend is this.   After each presidential election, the candidate from the opposing party of the winner of the presidential election wins the governor race in Virgina.   Please observe:

1976 Presidential race winner: Jimmy Carter (D)
1977 VA Governor race winner: John Dalton (R)

1980 Presidential race winner: Ronald Reagan (R)
 1981 VA Governor race winner: Chuck Robb (D)

1984 Presidential race winner: Ronald Reagan (R)
1985 VA Governor race winner: Gerald Baliles (D)

1988 Presidential race winner: George H. W. Bush (R)
1989 VA Governor race winner: Douglas Wilder (D)

1992 Presidential race winner: Bill Clinton (D)
1993 VA Governor race winner: George Allen (R)

1996 Presidential race winner: Bill Clinton (D)
1997 VA Governor race winner: Jim Gilmore (R)

2000 Presidential race winner: George W. Bush (R)
2001 VA Governor race winner: Mark Warner (D)

2004 Presidential race winner: George W. Bush (R)
2005 VA Governor race winner:


So since Bush won the presidency in 2004,  this trend would favor Democrat Tim Kaine to become the next governor in Virginia.  Should be interesting to see if Kilgore can break the string this year

[Alcon]

Interesting. I'd prefer to call this more of a coincidence than a trend, but still, very interesting.

[DanimalBr]

Interesting. I'd prefer to call this more of a coincidence than a trend, but still, very interesting.

Yeah.  I agree.  It's all a major coincidence and there's no correlation between the two.  But it's something that nobody else has picked up on here in VA.   Kind of like the Redskins rule that was broken in this year's election.  It's interesting, but it has no bearing on the outcome of the elction. 

[danwxman]

Hide this thread from Phillip.

[A18]

Uh, what? I've said all along the state is lean GOP. I think it'd be pretty ridiculous to deny that, but it could definitely go either way.

[Moooooo]

Philip, is the Lt. Gov. (I forgot his name) a strong candidate for the Democrats?  Is he popular in VA?

[King]

1976 Presidential race winner: Jimmy Carter (D)
1977 VA Governor race winner: John Dalton (R)

Gerald Ford won Virginia 49-48!

EDIT: OH...THIS IS NATIONAL WINNER!

[A18]

1976 Presidential race winner: Jimmy Carter (D)
1977 VA Governor race winner: John Dalton (R)

Gerald Ford won Virginia 49-48!

Did you look at all the other ones? He's talking about the winner of the national election.

[DanimalBr]

1976 Presidential race winner: Jimmy Carter (D)
1977 VA Governor race winner: John Dalton (R)

Gerald Ford won Virginia 49-48!

The trend is who wins the presidential election overall.  Not who wins the state of Virginia in the election.  

[A18]

Otherwise, the winner would have been a Democrat every time, since we've gone Rep in every election since 1964.

[DanimalBr]

Otherwise, the winner would have been a Democrat every time, since we've gone Rep in every election since 1964.

Precisely!!!  You took the words right out of my mouth

[Jake]

I think Kaine will pull it out this year.  The trend must continue.

[Beet]

But...but... The Redskins LOST!

[BobOMac2k2]

Lets hope it will continue...

[Storebought]

LA has the same pre-election year governor's races, but they are meaningless. The Democrat always wins, unless the Democrat is black.

[Defarge]

The only other state that elects a governor the year after the President of the United States is New Jersey.

1988 Presidential race winner: George H. W. Bush (R)
1989 VA Governor race winner: Douglas Wilder (D)
1989 NJ Governor race winner: James Florio (D)

1992 Presidential race winner: Bill Clinton (D)
1993 VA Governor race winner: George Allen (R)
1993 NJ Governor race winner: Christine Todd Whitman (R)

1996 Presidential race winner: Bill Clinton (D)
1997 VA Governor race winner: Jim Gilmore (R)
1997 NJ Governor race winner: Christine Todd Whitman (R)

2000 Presidential race winner: George W. Bush (R)
2001 VA Governor race winner: Mark Warner (D)
2001 NJ Governor race winner: James McGreevey (D)

That's freaky