How about you, J.J.? You admittedly haven't been nearly as over the top unrealistic as Politico or NH Magic, but I still detect enough confidence in your posts to satisfy a betting man.
Consider the offer below open to you too.
POLITICO!!!
There, now that I have your attention....
You talked about "talking the talk, but not walking the walk". I am MORE than happy to give you the chance.
Try to be more a statatician then a zealot in analyzing elections, and I think that's your shortcoming here.
I willing to bet you the outcome of any current 08 Obama state at $5 each EXCEPT CO & FL & NC; I'll also give you 5-8 odds on OH, VA, IA, NH and WI (yes, I'm excluding NV from that list) and 2-1 odds on any other Obama 08 states.
I'll be glad to give you 3-2 odds on a $20 bet over the entire election as well. Alternatively, we can bet the other having to bare a (non-TOS violating) sig of the other's choice until Inauguration Day.
Time to walk the walk, Mr. Optomist........
Ask me next Tuesday.
There
are some good signs. Libya has damaged Obama (and so has the rest of the Islamic world).
The "right track wrong direction" numbers went up after the DNC, but the swung back up. The R's are leading on generic congressional ballot, after dropping after the DNC.
The 47% comment was damaging, but the damage appears to be ephemeral; it appears was on Rasmussen. I'm waiting to see in Gallup swings after the same 3-4 day period. Obama was actually decreasing before that on Gallup.
I'm looking at enthusiasm and turnout. So far, I'm not seeing too many outward signs for Obama in my area. That is not a good measure (J. J.'s Third Rule). I have not been in areas that were overtly GOP, so it could be the same across the board.
Registration in PA seems not to have been pushed. I had to go down to the Registration Office to change my ID to comply with the new PA law. I got there at 1:00 PM; I was the only person there (though three others came as I was being taken care of).
From what I can tell, NC is shifting to Romney in the actual voters. I would expect Romney to run better in EV's than McCain.
I predicted the drop Romney would have this week on Gallup. If it just a reaction to 47%, he should be tied or better by Monday on both Gallup and Rasmussen. If that happens, I'll start from there.
