Dick Morris: What Many Polls Are Missing

[Politico]

Excerpts:

1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.

[P]olling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.

If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality. [Own commentary: It appears Gallup may be doing this]

2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.

So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

Source: http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-state-romney-vote/

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Will you guys stop with this Reagan "Come From Behind" myth. The Gipper was ahead from May 1980 til Election Day. And there is no evidence that the undecided vote always breaks unanimously or anywhere close for the challenger. If that were true George W. Bush would not have won in 2004 and Bill Clinton wouldn't have won in 1996.

[Tender Branson]

Dick Morris is an idiot.

He can't even get his own "polls" right, so he's complaining about others ?

[Mehmentum]

Also, the enthusiasm gap has disapeared (and in many polls reversed) after the Democratic Convention.  It could revert back in the coming weeks, but unless/until that happens you aren't at all justified in saying that Republicans will have the enthusiasm advantage. 

[Politico]

Will you guys stop with this Reagan "Come From Behind" myth. The Gipper was ahead from May 1980 til Election Day. And there is no evidence that the undecided vote always breaks unanimously or anywhere close for the challenger. If that were true George W. Bush would not have won in 2004 and Bill Clinton wouldn't have won in 1996.

Bush won in 2004 because he dramatically increased turnout among his base relative to 2000. Obama is not going to get better turnout than 2008. Only a delusional Democrat would suggest such nonsense.

Furthermore, Clinton won in 1996 by triangulating (e.g., welfare reform, school uniforms, "era of Big Government is over," etc.). In addition, the economy had about 5% unemployment and gasoline cost about $1.25/gallon.

[Fritz]

Politico, what is your opinion of Nate Silver as a polling analyst? Just curious.

[mondale84]

Dick Morris is an idiot.

So is Politico...

...why are you guys feeding this troll?

[Politico]

Politico, what is your opinion of Nate Silver as a polling analyst? Just curious.

He has a hidden agenda.

[Ty440]

Arkansas solid blue? Enough said.

No one pays attention to tricky Dick anymore.

[Tender Branson]

Arkansas solid blue? Enough said.

No one pays attention to tricky Dick anymore.

Yeah that. LOL. He should just shut up.

[Eraserhead]

Dick Morris is a moron. Remember when the undecided vote broke heavily against Bush in 2004? Me neither, because it didn't. I still remember the last Gallup poll from that year: Bush 49 Kerry 48. The actual vote was Bush 51 Kerry 48. The increased polarization of today won't allow for the kind of ultra wild swings of the 80s (or earlier).

Besides that, several polls have now shown that a higher % of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting in this election than Republicans. You can try to pretend that isn't the case but it is what it is. Romney's campaign has been a borderline disaster so far and Obama is still liked by the vast majority of Democrats.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If you're clinging to Dick Morris, you may as well accept that it's over.

He's that bad.

[BigSkyBob]

Will you guys stop with this Reagan "Come From Behind" myth. The Gipper was ahead from May 1980 til Election Day. And there is no evidence that the undecided vote always breaks unanimously or anywhere close for the challenger. If that were true George W. Bush would not have won in 2004 and Bill Clinton wouldn't have won in 1996.

Osama Bin Laden endorsed Bush's opponent just before the 2004 election. Had that not occured, Bush, probably, would have lost.

[Fritz]

Politico, what is your opinion of Nate Silver as a polling analyst? Just curious.

He has a hidden agenda.

And Dick Morris doesn't?

[mondale84]

Will you guys stop with this Reagan "Come From Behind" myth. The Gipper was ahead from May 1980 til Election Day. And there is no evidence that the undecided vote always breaks unanimously or anywhere close for the challenger. If that were true George W. Bush would not have won in 2004 and Bill Clinton wouldn't have won in 1996.

Osama Bin Laden endorsed Bush's opponent just before the 2004 election. Had that not occured, Bush, probably, would have lost.

LOL

You really haven't got a clue about politics, do you?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Had Bush not totally crashed during the first debate, his lead would have been virtually undisturbed.

The effect of the bin Laden tape and the 2000 DUI is overstated to excuse Bush under-performance. Bush was greatly assisted by the genuine last-minute undecideds, not Kerry.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Dick Morris has no credibility.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Politico, what is your opinion of Nate Silver as a polling analyst? Just curious.

He has a hidden agenda.

And Dick Morris doesn't?

Dick Morris has an open agenda.

[mondale84]

Dick Morris is almost as big a political buffoon as you, Politico...

[Adam Griffin]

Bush won in 2004 because he dramatically increased turnout among his base relative to 2000. Obama is not going to get better turnout than 2008. Only a delusional Democrat would suggest such nonsense.

Are you seriously trying to compare Bush's 2000 turnout with Obama's 2008 turnout? Furthermore, are you attempting to say that if Obama's 2012 turnout drops by any amount, that he will lose? If so, it absolutely makes no sense. Bush had to increase turnout because otherwise, he would have lost. Obama doesn't have to do that. Remember how one lost the PV and the other won it by seven points?

[Maxwell]

Dick Morris???

[5280]

Dick Morris, the man himself...


and his cousin, The Penguin


face morph the two...


lastly...

[GMantis]

Will you guys stop with this Reagan "Come From Behind" myth. The Gipper was ahead from May 1980 til Election Day. And there is no evidence that the undecided vote always breaks unanimously or anywhere close for the challenger. If that were true George W. Bush would not have won in 2004 and Bill Clinton wouldn't have won in 1996.

Osama Bin Laden endorsed Bush's opponent just before the 2004 election. Had that not occured, Bush, probably, would have lost.

How exactly does "that your security is not in the hands of Kerry, nor Bush, nor al-Qaida" constitutes endorsing Kerry?

[Niemeyerite]

Arkansas solid blue? Enough said.

No one pays attention to tricky Dick anymore.

But... but that's the real map. The actual results were an oultier. [/politico]

[SPQR]

Arkansas solid blue? Enough said.

No one pays attention to tricky Dick anymore.

/thread