What really happened in 1980 (user search)
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Author Topic: What really happened in 1980  (Read 5143 times)
afleitch
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« on: September 22, 2012, 02:20:35 PM »

Are you ready? Listen up. Last time we do this.


What is interesting about the polls in 1980 is that they really weren't that far off the final outcome. Reagan on average led all summer. The spoiler was Anderson who was polling 9-10% in the final polls and who got 7% in the General. Indeed the 'eve of poll' polls were also underestimating Carter. DMI gave him 34% and CSR 36% though they got the actual vote right giving Regan an 11% and a 10% lead

The other respected pollster was Harris who had Reagan up 5 when Gallup only had him up 3. The odd one out was actually Gallup. They had Reagan leading by 1% on 30th October when a clutch of 6 polls had an average lead of 4% (Harris had 5%, DMI had 10%) On 26th October Gallup had Carter 3 points ahead when Harris had Reagan ahead by 3 points.

The pollster that got it right was DMI. It had Reagan up 8% back in mid-October, had him fall back to 7% by late October but had him correctly ahead by 10-11 points in the final push.

Indeed Gallup was the most pro-Carter pollster
in that final push. When the 'gold standard' gets it wrong then it's not the gold standard.

For the record, looking at the eve of election polls it appears that Reagan got 2-3 points from declared Anderson voters (who were either going to vote for Reagan all along or genuinely switched) and Carter won about 63% of undecided voters.


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