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  University of Cincinnati: Obama up by 5 in Ohio
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Author Topic: University of Cincinnati: Obama up by 5 in Ohio  (Read 905 times)
pa2011
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« on: September 22, 2012, 11:24:11 pm »
« edited: September 23, 2012, 04:17:26 am by Tender Branson »

Ohio Poll  51 Obama 46 Romney. Interesting, that Obama and Romney tie among men in Ohio.

http://www.ohio.com/news/local/obama-has-the-lead-in-ohio-newspaper-poll-1.336578

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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2012, 11:44:25 pm »

Newspaper poll, no track record, so take it for what it is worth.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2012, 11:51:36 pm »

Yeah, despite it marrying up with what we've been hearing about OH, I'll take this poll with a grain of salt.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2012, 11:57:16 pm »

Yeah, despite it marrying up with what we've been hearing about OH, I'll take this poll with a grain of salt.

Yes, if you compare it with Purple Strategies and Fox. Smiley

PS may end up being okay, but their track record just isn't there.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2012, 12:09:29 am »

They were around in 2008.  They had Obama 49 McCain 46 in their last poll 10/26/2008.  For the comparable September 12-16 poll in 2008, they had McCain 48 Obama 42.  Apparently Obama's only lead was in the final poll in 2008.  In their final 2004 poll, they had Bush 50 Kerry 49.  It looks like it had an R house effect in 2008 and was on the mark in 2004.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2012, 12:11:41 am »

Newspaper poll, no track record, so take it for what it is worth.

Au contraire:

Quote
“Clearly, how Ohioans view the two candidates in terms of their ability to improve Ohio’s economy over the next four years will go a long way in determining who wins Ohio’s 18 electoral votes,” said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, which conducted the poll.

This is EXCELLENT news for the President, since the Univ. of Cincinnati is historically the most accurate Ohio pollster.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2012, 12:13:12 am »

If we were to look at the poll... if Obama is over 50 and even close among men, Romney is doomed.

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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2012, 12:49:08 am »

This is the gold standard poll in Ohio...in 2004 their final poll was Bush 50, Kerry 49, and the final result was Bush 51, Kerry 49.

In 2008 their final poll was Obama 52, McCain 46, and the final result was Obama 51, McCain 47.

They haven't missed a statewide race (Presidential, Governor, or Senate) since 1994 (34 straight correct polls), so if this poll says Obama is up 5 and at 51%, he's probably up by at least 4 points and at most 6-7, and is surely above the 50% threshold.

Very good poll for Obama.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2012, 06:29:09 am »

Another Joke poll for OH
Obama 51/Romney 46
(Dems +6…48%D/42%R/10%I)
48% Dems? Almost half of Ohio is Democratic? I don’t think so.
in 2008 it was 39D 31R 30I in 2010 37R 36D 27I in 2012 it will be 36D 35R 29I
The poll indicates that Democrats are slightly more likely to vote than Republicans this year, and Obama supporters are more enthusiastic about the election than are Romney backers. However, Romney is winning independents by a large margin!! So reduce the I-vote by 19% and give them to the D`s and oh whta a surprise suddenly Obama leads!! LAUGHABLE!! The truth in this poll is Romney is slightly ahead!
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2012, 06:39:56 am »

Or it is possible that the Romney campaign is really failing big time in Ohio. Those damn idiots in Boston are to blame for this for not doing the same thing here with the Auto industry, that they did with medicare in Florida. Also, they were rolling around in cash for months and yet never managed to build a GOTV operation. If they can't get volunteers, then double up on the paid staff and buy technology to increase the effectiveness of those they do get.
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2012, 10:00:49 am »

Another Joke poll for OH
Obama 51/Romney 46
(Dems +6…48%D/42%R/10%I)
48% Dems? Almost half of Ohio is Democratic? I don’t think so.
in 2008 it was 39D 31R 30I in 2010 37R 36D 27I in 2012 it will be 36D 35R 29I
The poll indicates that Democrats are slightly more likely to vote than Republicans this year, and Obama supporters are more enthusiastic about the election than are Romney backers. However, Romney is winning independents by a large margin!! So reduce the I-vote by 19% and give them to the D`s and oh whta a surprise suddenly Obama leads!! LAUGHABLE!! The truth in this poll is Romney is slightly ahead!

I smell the desperation here...that polling outfit hasn't missed a statewide race since 1994. Face it, your candidate is drowning in the Buckeye State, and will have to not only win all the undecideds, but convince Obama supporters to change their minds.
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pepper11
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2012, 10:15:17 am »

This is a quality poll. Probably has the state of the race within one point - O + 4.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2012, 06:00:48 pm »

Ohio is done.  If romney wins Ohio, its just icing on the cake.  He should quietly pull out.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2012, 06:37:56 pm »

Even if he wanted to, he couldn't...

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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2012, 07:56:48 pm »

Even if he wanted to, he couldn't...

Yeah, pulling out of Ohio is a terrible idea unless Romney wants to actually suspend his campaign or something.
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