PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Do any of the Republicans in this forum outside of JJ and Phil have ANYTHING to contribute outside of "GOOD NEWS"?

and any bounce from the debate Romney got is washed out by the jobs report.  People flocked to Romney for 2 days because he made a great (BS, mind you) case that the economy was going to sh**t.  Friday negated that.  Obama by 5.5 on election day. 

No "negation," so far.  2/3 of Rasmussen sample has been after the jobs number, and it is unchanged.

Also keep in mind that Obama can claim that unemployment is no worse when he took office.  He can't claim it is better than when he took office.  Bush did get reelected, however, with worse numbers (though not as bad).

I do not factor Rasmussen's ridiculous numbers into my analysis.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Do any of the Republicans in this forum outside of JJ and Phil have ANYTHING to contribute outside of "GOOD NEWS"?

and any bounce from the debate Romney got is washed out by the jobs report.  People flocked to Romney for 2 days because he made a great (BS, mind you) case that the economy was going to sh**t.  Friday negated that.  Obama by 5.5 on election day.  

You mean the jimmied up jobs report?  The unemployment rate does not fall by almost half a percentage point without the economy creating 300,000+ jobs.  It just doesnt happen.  

Im nearly 100% certain that the Obama administration played around with these numbers in order to get a result that Obama wanted before the election.  You cant change the number of jobs created, but you can change the rate.

The rate fell because the jobs created in the months of August and July were revised up drastically. That means that combined with this month and the net + revisions of those two months we created over 200,000 new jobs so the rate fell.

[pbrower2a]

Do any of the Republicans in this forum outside of JJ and Phil have ANYTHING to contribute outside of "GOOD NEWS"?

and any bounce from the debate Romney got is washed out by the jobs report.  People flocked to Romney for 2 days because he made a great (BS, mind you) case that the economy was going to sh**t.  Friday negated that.  Obama by 5.5 on election day.  

You mean the jimmied up jobs report?  The unemployment rate does not fall by almost half a percentage point without the economy creating 300,000+ jobs.  It just doesnt happen.  

Im nearly 100% certain that the Obama administration played around with these numbers in order to get a result that Obama wanted before the election.  You cant change the number of jobs created, but you can change the rate.

People going back to school in September.

[Oakvale]

Do any of the Republicans in this forum outside of JJ and Phil have ANYTHING to contribute outside of "GOOD NEWS"?

and any bounce from the debate Romney got is washed out by the jobs report.  People flocked to Romney for 2 days because he made a great (BS, mind you) case that the economy was going to sh**t.  Friday negated that.  Obama by 5.5 on election day. 

You mean the jimmied up jobs report?  The unemployment rate does not fall by almost half a percentage point without the economy creating 300,000+ jobs.  It just doesnt happen. 

Im nearly 100% certain that the Obama administration played around with these numbers in order to get a result that Obama wanted before the election.  You cant change the number of jobs created, but you can change the rate.

Please feel free to elaborate on this buffoonish conspiracy theory.

[Lief 🗽]

For what it's worth, looking at the internals of this poll, the entirety of Romney's bump seems to come from an increase in Republican enthusiasm. Nate Silver as well points out that in all the registered voter polls we're seeing, there's not been much movement. These data points, plus Obama's approval ratings holding steady at around 50% in all the polling, seems to indicate that Romney's bounce will be ephemeral, and indeed could disappear pretty quickly.

We'll see in the next few days, but it's important to remember that these PPP polls are incredibly unreliable right now. Robo-polling + polling right after a big news event + weekend polling is a pretty terrible combination.

[AmericanNation]

If Romney is not up here currently, he is not winning it without winning the PV. It all comes down to Ohio.

We could see an expanding base for Romney as well.

In terms of states? What other states besides Wisconsin are you looking at? Obviously states like VA, IA, CO and FL on their own aren't going to cut it for Romney, though they are prerequisites. Adding NH to that list doesn't work. NV and WI are the only ones who work and I do think Romney has a better chance in WI than NV. This poll shows that WI is not a Romney state even when he is in a strong position, thus I think OH is still the key. And although I do think Opebo is trolling with his "racist whites" meme, in OH it might actually affect the race. The type of people Obama needs to win in OH tend to not like Blacks.

Yea Romney will need to win the PV to win Wisconsin.  Same is going to be true with OH and VA.  Obama has been outspending Romney like crazy here.  Romney had been dialing back money here to focus on other places (10 point deficits will do that to Boston), but this news will reverse the flow of money (seriously I've herd it will).  Romney will need to win by 1% to 1.5% nationally to win Wisconsin.