Quinnipiac: Obama DOMINATING in OH & FL

[Lief 🗽]

This is my point - the state polling and most of the national polling is suggesting this collapse, but it's not being shown to a large extent on Gallup and not at all on Ras...

Rasmussen and Gallup are outliers because their samples are bad. Ramussen's has a Republican party ID of +4 or something and Gallup dramatically under-samples minorities.

[Wiz in Wis]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2012-09-24

Summary: D: 54%, R: 42%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[J. J.]

First, I'm not too impressed with Quinnipiac outside of New England, New York or New Jersey (where they are top notch).

Pennsylvania? Much in line with November 2008. Florida, Ohio... without corroboration by other pollsters theses would look like outliers.

Second, they were not planning to poll PA until the last week of October; what happened?

Uh, that was PPP who said that they won't poll PA until the last week of October. Quinnipiac never said that.

Thanks, I forgot.

[dspNY]

FL is probably an outlier, but who knows because seniors may have been turned off by Ryan (they pay attention to the AARP), and an Obama 9 point lead in FL is most likely built on seniors turning their back on Romney. I still think Obama only leads by 2-4 points here.

Pennsylvania looks right, Romney basically gave up on the state early on and Obama still has his ground game established there.

The big result is Ohio. Every single poll (except for the crap Gravis poll with 11% undecided) has Obama between 48 and 53% and Romney no higher than 46% since Romney's Libya remarks and the 47% tape. Even if you weight for Party ID and make the state D+4, Obama still leads by the same 5 points that the Ohio Poll (U. of Cincinnati) found.

[Umengus]

Party id:

OH: D+9
FL: D+9


In OH, R wins I by 1
In FL, R wins I by 3

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'd say FL is an outlier; every poll shows him down by 3-5%. PA is probably in the 8-12% range. Ohio may also be a slight outlier, but at this point it may very well be legitimate.

[opebo]

FL is probably an outlier, but who knows because seniors may have been turned off by Ryan (they pay attention to the AARP), and an Obama 9 point lead in FL is most likely built on seniors turning their back on Romney.

Ohio is also a very elderly state.  I believe that this story of seniors switching is the big news and game-changer of the last week.   I predict a big win in Florida (53+%) and without Florida or Ohio Romney hasn't a chance.

It took a while to show up in the polls, but it turns out as unappealing as Romney is personally, it was the Ryan choice which was the straw that broke the camel's back of (part of) his natural base support.

[Phony Moderate]

FL is probably an outlier, but who knows because seniors may have been turned off by Ryan (they pay attention to the AARP), and an Obama 9 point lead in FL is most likely built on seniors turning their back on Romney.

Ohio is also a very elderly state.  I believe that this story of seniors switching is the big news and game-changer of the last week.   I predict a big win in Florida (53+%) and without Florida or Ohio Romney hasn't a chance.

It took a while to show up in the polls, but it turns out as unappealing as Romney is personally, it was the Ryan choice which was the straw that broke the camel's back of (part of) his natural base support.

So you're now an optimist?

[Vern]

Polls are just polls, a picture of the race durning the time it was taken. Doesn't mean this is what it will end up being in the end.

[opebo]

So you're now an optimist?

Yeah, officially.  Sticking my neck out.

[J. J.]

Looking at the rest of the FL polls, Quinnipaic could be either an outlier or they have a really skewed sampling.

PPP, M-D, have it closer, outside of the MOE.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looking at the rest of the FL polls, Quinnipaic could be either an outlier or they have a really skewed sampling.

PPP, M-D, have it closer, outside of the MOE.

Skewed you say!!

[J. J.]

Looking at the rest of the FL polls, Quinnipaic could be either an outlier or they have a really skewed sampling.

PPP, M-D, have it closer, outside of the MOE.

Skewed you say!!

It is not matching the other polls, all of which show it much closer.  And we're talking about PPP and Mason Dixon.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

FTR, I don't believe the FL number...

[J. J.]

This is my point - the state polling and most of the national polling is suggesting this collapse, but it's not being shown to a large extent on Gallup and not at all on Ras...

Here is what I think is happening.  The 47% comment came out last week, while these polls were being taken.

Rasmussen, on a three day cycle caught it late last week; Romney dropped and some ancillary numbers improved.  Then the comment became internalized; on Rasmussen, Romney recovered.

This, and Gallup, is on a longer cycle (and Quinnipiac probably has D's oversampled).  Last week, on Gallup's weekly numbers, Romney improved.  Now the sample is totally the reaction to the comment.

Romney is improving (as per Rasmussen), but that won't show up until the weekend when the sampling from 9/19-23 drops out.  That is why I'm saying wait until Monday, 1/10, because that heavily pro Obama sample will drop out at that time (if it is there).  And yes, I was saying, last week, that these reaction numbers should hit in Gallup this week.

Another, less optimistic possibility is that Rasmussen has a heavily pro Romney sample in it, that will drop out tomorrow. 

Oh course, if I'm right, the Democrats will be complaining about the polls and the Republicans will be cheering Obama's "collapse."

[Lief 🗽]

Okay, but why is none of this movement showing up in any other poll, national or state? There are other polls besides Rasmussen and Gallup.

[pa2011]

This is my point - the state polling and most of the national polling is suggesting this collapse, but it's not being shown to a large extent on Gallup and not at all on Ras...

Here is what I think is happening.  The 47% comment came out last week, while these polls were being taken.

Undoubtedly, polls will tighten in October. Of course, Obama is not going to win Florida by 8 o 9 points. But you fail to include Obama was ahead in most swing states even before the 47 percent comment, even before Romney's Libya remark and, frankly, even before either the Democratic or Republican conventions. So even if polls snap back drastically, it may just snap back to a tie in Florida and slim lead for Romney in North Carolina and 5 point edge in Ohio and PA.  Also, you don't seem to realize as, each day passes, more and more people make up their minds and stick to it, making wild swings less likely barring major, major bad news/crisis.  Still, I fully expect the Romney is "closing the gap" and "polls tighten" stories. But "tighten" to what?? Obama with 280 electoral votes instead of 340?

[pa2011]

I also am not so sure that Romney's comment on 60 minutes about the uninsured being able to just use Emergency Rooms is not also hurting him bad in either current or upcoming tracking polls. Surprising how many people saw that and remarked how turned off they were.

[J. J.]

This is my point - the state polling and most of the national polling is suggesting this collapse, but it's not being shown to a large extent on Gallup and not at all on Ras...

Here is what I think is happening.  The 47% comment came out last week, while these polls were being taken.

Undoubtedly, polls will tighten in October. Of course, Obama is not going to win Florida by 8 o 9 points. But you fail to include Obama was ahead in most swing states even before the 47 percent comment, even before Romney's Libya remark and, frankly, even before either the Democratic or Republican conventions. So even if polls snap back drastically, it may just snap back to a tie in Florida and slim lead for Romney in North Carolina and 5 point edge in Ohio and PA.  Also, you don't seem to realize as, each day passes, more and more people make up their minds and stick to it, making wild swings less likely barring major, major bad news/crisis.  Still, I fully expect the Romney is "closing the gap" and "polls tighten" stories. But "tighten" to what?? Obama with 280 electoral votes instead of 340?

Well, in terms of the national polls, Obama was slumping until the data from the 47% comment was entering.  And Romney was improving in the state polls.

If this is just due to the 47% comment, Romney should be tied or better on Gallup at the start of the week.

[pa2011]

Don't understand why you just assume the 47 percent was a blip instead of a seminal moment in the campaign. Problem for Romney is that video seems to have just reinforced concerns about him many voters had already, and crystalized $50 million of summer  attack ads from Obama over Bain, etc, etc. Again, think polls will tighten, but not so sure -- especially less than 6 weeks before the election - that the 47 percent thing should just be viewed as a blip that will work itself out of the polls in a few days. Could be wrong, but sort of seems that the polls are sort of stabilizing.

[J. J.]

Don't understand why you just assume the 47 percent was a blip instead of a seminal moment in the campaign. Problem for Romney is that video seems to have just reinforced concerns about him many voters had already, and crystalized $50 million of summer  attack ads from Obama over Bain, etc, etc. Again, think polls will tighten, but not so sure -- especially less than 6 weeks before the election - that the 47 percent thing should just be viewed as a blip that will work itself out of the polls in a few days. Could be wrong, but sort of seems that the polls are sort of stabilizing.

I wasn't on Rasmussen, though it had an effect.  Libya was suppose to a "seminal moment," a week before, but Romney improved.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Don't understand why you just assume the 47 percent was a blip instead of a seminal moment in the campaign. Problem for Romney is that video seems to have just reinforced concerns about him many voters had already, and crystalized $50 million of summer  attack ads from Obama over Bain, etc, etc. Again, think polls will tighten, but not so sure -- especially less than 6 weeks before the election - that the 47 percent thing should just be viewed as a blip that will work itself out of the polls in a few days. Could be wrong, but sort of seems that the polls are sort of stabilizing.

I wasn't on Rasmussen, though it had an effect.  Libya was suppose to a "seminal moment," a week before, but Romney improved.

I think the Libya thing wasn't a foundational shock... I think the 47% numbers were.

[timothyinMD]

OH D+9
FL D+9
PA D+11


roflmao

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Just a question... do you contribute anything useful?

[ajb]

An interesting side-note from the Q-Pac FL poll, courtesy of Nate Cohn's twitter feed.
Q-Pac asked voters BOTH which party they identified with, AND with which party they were registered. On the partisan ID question, their sample responded 36D 27R 33I. But on the party registration question, they answered 43D 36R, which compares with the actual registration numbers of 40D 36R.

http://t.co/y2QsQmbk