Predictions with 40 days to go

[Lief 🗽]

With 40 days remaining, who will win the presidency and which party will control each house of Congress?

Feel free to post more detailed predictions in your posts.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obama 347
Romney 191

Dems retain Senate
GOP retains House

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Obama, Democrats, Republicans.

[RedPrometheus]

Obama, Democrats, Republicans.

[LiberalJunkie]

Obama 347
Romney 191

Dems retain Senate
GOP retains House

[Mr.Phips]

Obama wins
Democrats keep the Senate
Republicans hold the House by around 15 votes

[Likely Voter]

Obama 301 EV
Dems 51 Senate seats
House: GOP +18 seats

[dspNY]

Obama 332 EV (I posted that AZ could be an unexpected win for Obama, but I think that state and NC will eventually end up red).

Senate races:

Warren beats Brown (Mass)
Berkeley beats Heller (Nevada)
King beats Summers and Dill, caucuses with Dems (Maine)
Murphy beats McMahon (Conn)
Kaine beats Allen (Virginia)
Nelson beats Mack (Florida)
Brown beats Mandel (Ohio)
Baldwin beats Thompson (Wisconsin)
McCaskill beats Akin by 1-2% (Missouri)

Rehberg beats Tester (Montana)
Berg beats Heitkamp (ND)
Fischer beats Kerrey (Nebraska)
Flake beats Carmona (Arizona)
Mourdock beats Donnelly (Indiana)

No change in the Senate (D 51, R 47, 2 I, both independents caucus with Dems)

House: Dems +17, so GOP controls the House by an eyelash

[Maxwell]

Democrats aren't getting the house.

Otherwise, Obama and the Dems keep the senate the way things are going. I really hope Scott Brown turns this back around.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Obama wins with 300+ electoral votes.

Democrats net one seat in the Senate and remain in control.

Dems also pick up 15-20 seats in the House but narrowly miss the majority despite winning a plurality of the total popular vote for House elections.

[Franzl]

Obama wins with 300+ electoral votes.

Democrats net one seat in the Senate and remain in control.

Dems also pick up 15-20 seats in the House but narrowly miss the majority despite winning a plurality of the total popular vote for House elections.

That sounds about right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on 538.com (updated Tuesday).

Presidential Prediction:



Senate prediction:



For the House, Marokai's assessment seems about right. Honestly though, I've no idea what could happen.

[Comrade Funk]

Obama 347
Romney 191

Dems retain Senate
GOP retains House

[sg0508]

The only two states to switch from 2008 will be IN and NC.

The Democrats are going to win big in the Senate and I'm not convinced IN and ND will go red either.

[Politico]

Romney wins, Senate will probably be split down the middle (Brown/Warren and Kaine/Allen will probably be decisive), and Republicans hold onto the House but lose a few seats.

[LiberalJunkie]

Romney wins, Senate will probably be split down the middle (Brown/Warren and Kaine/Allen will probably be decisive), and Republicans hold onto the House but lose a few seats.

Lol you keep dreaming...I can't wait for election night to see how you guys react.

[NHI]

Based on current trends: Obama wins (~300 EV), Democrats keep the Senate, Republicans keep the House.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Obama wins with 300+ electoral votes.

Democrats net one seat in the Senate and remain in control.

Dems also pick up 15-20 seats in the House but narrowly miss the majority despite winning a plurality of the total popular vote for House elections.

EV/Senate predictions are pretty good, although I think we'll break even in the end.

House is was too optimistic. We'd be lucky to net 10+ seats. If current trends hold we'll give ~8 and come back over the 200 mark.

[JFK-Democrat]

Obama wins more than 300 EVs. Senate Dems retain control but just barely. The House stays Republican.

[LastVoter]

Democratic House.

[Sbane]

If the election keeps going this way, I think the house will end up being the most interesting thing to watch on election day. If Obama does win by 5 points, I think the Democrats win the house vote by at least 3, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was even more. I think Republicans could keep control with a 3 point disadvantage, with a lot of close races. If it's any worse that, the dam breaks and the Dems take control.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Romney flubs the debates, the Dems would have a chance at winning the House.  If Romney does well, he might be able to help the GOP take the Senate, but he needs Obama to flub to have a chance at the White House himself.

[Mehmentum]

Looks like nearly everyone is saying Obama wins, the Democrats retain the Senate, and the Republicans retain the house with some dissenters saying that the Democrat will take it. 

Sounds about right.

[Averroës Nix]

Obama, House Republicans, Angus King

[Kaine for Senate '18]

332-206
Democrats hold Senate
GOP holds House