Columbus Dispatch Poll: Mitt Romney has a big Ohio problem

[Tender Branson]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/09/30/1-dispatch-poll-shows-obama-in-lead.html

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

Their last poll from a month ago was a 45-45 tie.

[Skill and Chance]

Really remarkable what OH appears to be doing this year!  Romney would need to run the table to win without it.  If he even loses NH it would be 269-269 and he probably has to put up with 4 years of Biden.

[Tender Branson]

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[Phony Moderate]

Tied among whites eh?

[Mister Twister]

Ohio will be more Dem than Iowa and probably Wisconsin this cycle. Well, stranger things have happened.

[Eraserhead]

Romney needs to really think about pulling out of Ohio. It looks like it's going to have a major swing towards Obama and actually vote significantly to the left of the nation as a whole (unlike in 2008).

I guess that's what happens when your unemployment rate is a full point lower than the national one.

[Tender Branson]

Romney needs to really think about pulling out of Ohio. It looks like it's going to have a major swing towards Obama and actually vote significantly to the left of the nation as a whole (unlike in 2008).

I guess that's what happens when your unemployment rate is a full point lower than the national one.

I don't think it has much to do with the UE rate.

NC has a much higher rate than the US as a whole, yet Obama has the best polling numbers there right now for a Democrat in a really long time.

Romney just seems to be a really bad cultural fit for the working-class state of OH.

[Brittain33]

I believe this news is... Splendid!

[Eraserhead]

Romney needs to really think about pulling out of Ohio. It looks like it's going to have a major swing towards Obama and actually vote significantly to the left of the nation as a whole (unlike in 2008).

I guess that's what happens when your unemployment rate is a full point lower than the national one.

I don't think it has much to do with the UE rate.

NC has a much higher rate than the US as a whole, yet Obama has the best polling numbers there right now for a Democrat in a really long time.

Romney just seems to be a really bad cultural fit for the working-class state of OH.

That most definitely seems to be true as well. Although it's sort of funny/odd how states like Indiana and many of the other midwestern states are swinging towards him while Ohio is clearly bucking the trend in a big way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm always amused at quite how many Americans lie about their qualifications to pollsters.

[Niemeyerite]

Tied among whites, leading among men and catholics, getting 41% of the protestant vote, leading by 9 in central Ohio. WOW!

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Ohio President by Columbus Dispatch on 2012-09-27

Summary: D: 51%, R: 42%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Phony Moderate]

Tied among whites, leading among men and catholics, getting 41% of the protestant vote, leading by 9 in central Ohio. WOW!

....but Romney has a huge lead on a tiny sample of Latinos. Lol.

[Ty440]

Tied among whites eh?

Amazing! I am so proud of my state! What do you think Romney's  strategists  think when they look over these results.

Is it time to hit the panic button? I really don't know what Romney can do with 5 weeks out.

[Skill and Chance]

Tied among whites eh?

Amazing! I am so proud of my state! What do you think Romney's  strategists  think when they look over these results.

Is it time to hit the panic button? I really don't know what Romney can do with 5 weeks out.

1. Throw a ton of money at WI to close the margin

2. Try to run the table otherwise

[technical support]

And this is coming from a republican pollster that endorsed john mccain in 2008.

[wan]

Romney needs to really think about pulling out of Ohio. It looks like it's going to have a major swing towards Obama and actually vote significantly to the left of the nation as a whole (unlike in 2008).

I guess that's what happens when your unemployment rate is a full point lower than the national one.

Romney was in Pennsylvaina the other day saying he was going to win that state. Could he win penn and lose ohio. There both identical states and he's not polling that great there.

[Umengus]

Party id: D+9

[Craigo]

Party id: D+9

See Rule #7.

[Eraserhead]

Romney needs to really think about pulling out of Ohio. It looks like it's going to have a major swing towards Obama and actually vote significantly to the left of the nation as a whole (unlike in 2008).

I guess that's what happens when your unemployment rate is a full point lower than the national one.

Romney was in Pennsylvaina the other day saying he was going to win that state. Could he win penn and lose ohio. There both identical states and he's not polling that great there.

There might be some notable similarities between them but they're hardly identical. Pennsylvania is much more reliably Democratic for one thing.

[Tender Branson]

Party id: D+9

This was a mail-in poll, which is comparable to a "real election", just on a smaller scale.

And Democrats seem to be more motivated to "vote" or mail back the survey forms.

And btw, The Dispatch poll was only off by about 1% in 2008 as their article says.

[Umengus]

Party id: D+9

See Rule #7.

I don't care about your rules. If you don't understand that Obama will do better in a sample with more democrats, I can nothing for you.

[Brittain33]

Party id: D+9

See Rule #7.

I don't care about your rules. If you don't understand that Obama will do better in a sample with more democrats, I can nothing for you.

If you don't understand that America in 2012 is a sample with more Democrats...