Obama opens massive lead in New Hampshire.

[pa2011]

http://www.wmur.com/news/politics/Poll-shows-Obama-with-15-point-lead-in-NH/-/9857748/16806904/-/evbu84z/-/index.html

Granite State Poll -- Obama 52. Romney 37.

 May be an outlier, but seems increasingly clear Obama is leading in New Hampshire.

[Skill and Chance]

Turning into East Vermont?

[Lief 🗽]

We'd easily retake both House seats if this is true.

[© tweed]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=47.msg30073#msg30073

[Likely Voter]

The media maps are now showing Obama with 265 in his safe/lean column (giving him OH and WI). If Romney closes the race then Obama's last line of defense could be WI+OH+1 more state. However NH cant be that state as it would only give him 269. So it is surprising to see how much money Obama has flooded into NH

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Uh... no... I think Obama's ahead, but it's one of the more precarious swingers.

[pa2011]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=47.msg30073#msg30073

\

Not sure what the link/poll proves, since it was taken in February 2004, 10 months before the election, in 2004. Don't think the poll was wrong just because in February 2004,as the war in Iraq was quickly spiraling downward for US,  it showed that New Hampshire voters didn't like Bush.  Also, Kerry went on to win New Hampshire, albeit narrowly.

[Skill and Chance]

The media maps are now showing Obama with 265 in his safe/lean column (giving him OH and WI). If Romney closes the race then Obama's last line of defense could be WI+OH+1 more state. However NH cant be that state as it would only give him 269. So it is surprising to see how much money Obama has flooded into NH

It is a little odd.  My best guess is that they know something we don't about WI and are afraid of this:

Or this:

NH would save Obama in both maps.

[pbrower2a]

It's hard to believe -- unless new Hampshire is becoming indistinguishable from other New England states. Barack Obama won the state by 'only' 9% while other states in New England went by large double-digit margins.

It's 52-37, and undecided voters probably go ineffectively to the eventual loser. I don't see President Obama winning the state by 15%... maybe 12% max. But he is above 50% in NH, suggesting that the only state in the northeastern quadrant that has any chance of going to Romney is Indiana.

Collapses happen around October, and nobody can say that Romney isn't having a collapse.

[Mehmentum]

The media maps are now showing Obama with 265 in his safe/lean column (giving him OH and WI). If Romney closes the race then Obama's last line of defense could be WI+OH+1 more state. However NH cant be that state as it would only give him 269. So it is surprising to see how much money Obama has flooded into NH

But its so ugly to have that patch of blue in the middle of all that red!

[ajb]

The media maps are now showing Obama with 265 in his safe/lean column (giving him OH and WI). If Romney closes the race then Obama's last line of defense could be WI+OH+1 more state. However NH cant be that state as it would only give him 269. So it is surprising to see how much money Obama has flooded into NH

But its so ugly to have that patch of blue in the middle of all that red!

NH is, of course, a pretty expensive state to advertise "in."

[Likely Voter]

While NH is expensive, that doesn't explain why the Obama campaign has doubled the NH spend, totaling $3M in the last two weeks (vs. $500k for Romney). Even though NH has the fewest EVs it is Obama's 4th biggest spend for a state. For Romney it is their smallest ad spend.

[opebo]

NH is moving towards safe Obama for sure.  The Ol' B***k Magic that's been brought to bear in Ohio, etc, just doesn't work there.

[nhmagic]

This polls junk and even Andy Smith who works in the poli-sci department at UNH (though I didn't have him as a professor) will probably tell you that, like he did the last poll that was O+5.  Romney, Obama and Biden were both here on September 7th.  Biden and Ryan have been here every 2 weeks since.  Chris Christie has been to the state.  Bill Clinton is coming on Wednesday (and they wouldn't deploy him here unless they needed him.  I think the internals are pretty bad for dems judging by the number of appearances they're making, and anecdotally, it isn't looking too pretty (though I know that isn't a good measure).

[Biden 2024]

The media maps are now showing Obama with 265 in his safe/lean column (giving him OH and WI). If Romney closes the race then Obama's last line of defense could be WI+OH+1 more state. However NH cant be that state as it would only give him 269. So it is surprising to see how much money Obama has flooded into NH

It is a little odd.  My best guess is that they know something we don't about WI and are afraid of this:

Or this:

NH would save Obama in both maps.

Sorry, but Romney is Not gonna win Colorado.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This polls junk and even Andy Smith who works in the poli-sci department at UNH (though I didn't have him as a professor) will probably tell you that, like he did the last poll that was O+5.  Romney, Obama and Biden were both here on September 7th.  Biden and Ryan have been here every 2 weeks since.  Chris Christie has been to the state.  Bill Clinton is coming on Wednesday (and they wouldn't deploy him here unless they needed him.  I think the internals are pretty bad for dems judging by the number of appearances they're making, and anecdotally, it isn't looking too pretty (though I know that isn't a good measure).

Depends what you mean by 'bad' NH is a crucial part of the Obama firewall, if it's any less than 5% in the internals, you're going to work your arse off to defend it.

[pbrower2a]

This polls junk and even Andy Smith who works in the poli-sci department at UNH (though I didn't have him as a professor) will probably tell you that, like he did the last poll that was O+5.  Romney, Obama and Biden were both here on September 7th.  Biden and Ryan have been here every 2 weeks since.  Chris Christie has been to the state.  Bill Clinton is coming on Wednesday (and they wouldn't deploy him here unless they needed him.  I think the internals are pretty bad for dems judging by the number of appearances they're making, and anecdotally, it isn't looking too pretty (though I know that isn't a good measure).

Collapses happen, and Obama up 15 in New Hampshire is consistent with the Quinnipiac polls for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania today. Neither U-New Hampshire nor Quinnipiac has been particularly D-friendly to date in polling results.   

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Doubt it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This polls junk and even Andy Smith who works in the poli-sci department at UNH (though I didn't have him as a professor) will probably tell you that, like he did the last poll that was O+5.  Romney, Obama and Biden were both here on September 7th.  Biden and Ryan have been here every 2 weeks since.  Chris Christie has been to the state.  Bill Clinton is coming on Wednesday (and they wouldn't deploy him here unless they needed him.  I think the internals are pretty bad for dems judging by the number of appearances they're making, and anecdotally, it isn't looking too pretty (though I know that isn't a good measure).

Collapses happen, and Obama up 15 in New Hampshire is consistent with the Quinnipiac polls for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania today. Neither U-New Hampshire nor Quinnipiac has been particularly D-friendly to date in polling results.   

Obama is not up 15 in NH... full stop. He's also not really up by 9 in FL or 10 in OH....

PA is the only one where there is a decent consistent 8%+ lead...

[pbrower2a]

Obama is not up 15 in NH... full stop. He's also not really up by 9 in FL or 10 in OH....

PA is the only one where there is a decent consistent 8%+ lead...

I said that such is consistent with a Romney collapse. I did not say that Mitt Romney had collapsed in the election. But I can now say that such numbers, if genuine, are consistent only with a Romney collapse.

[pbrower2a]

Obama is not up 15 in NH... full stop. He's also not really up by 9 in FL or 10 in OH....

PA is the only one where there is a decent consistent 8%+ lead...

I said that such is consistent with a Romney collapse. I did not say that Mitt Romney had collapsed in the election. But I can now say that such numbers, if genuine, are consistent only with a Romney collapse.

It's a week-old poll (FL/OH/PA) and CBS News announced it. Sorry about that. A week-old poll in any one of those three states is obsolete.

[Brittain33]

Chris Christie has been to the state? That explains it.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I have Obama with 275 EVs locked in. 

Where is Mittens path to victory?

[Eraserhead]

Obama is definitely ahead here. It's not a 15% margin.

[LastVoter]

NH is moving towards safe Obama for sure.  The Ol' B***k Magic that's been brought to bear in Ohio, etc, just doesn't work there.

If I was running Obama's campaign, and  was afraid of the obamaphone video, the first thing that should be done is sending Biden and Clinton on the campaign trail in Ohio. The second one would be to promise Ohio union leaders spoils for using more crude messaging to harass the uncompliant members into voting correctly, citing negative reasons for turnout, and causing anxiety among their ranks.

For example see this ad, but more explicit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLo0Jwj03JU

But I don't think that video will go above 10 million views, at least until Republican PACs run it, so such measures are not warranted yet.