LA-SMOR: Romney by only 6

[Tender Branson]

45-39 Romney

Developed and conducted by Southern Opinion & Media Research, the poll included telephone interviews with 600 randomly selected Louisiana voters Sept. 11-20. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.

http://www.laplaintalk.com/news-releases/FALL-2012-LOUISIANA-VOTER-SURVEY-RELEASE-AND-ANALYSIS.pdf

http://www.laplaintalk.com/news-releases/FALL-2012-LOUISIANA-VOTER-SURVEY-RESULTS.pdf

[dirks]

eh...would like to see the LA polls leading up to 2008...because Obama hasn't budged from the 39% he got there in 08 as well. Safe Romney state

[Tender Branson]

eh...would like to see the LA polls leading up to 2008...because Obama hasn't budged from the 39% he got there in 08 as well. Safe Romney state

There were not many.

The Atlas 3-poll average had McCain winning 50-40.

Rasmussen had the most accurate poll with 57-41.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=22

[Eraserhead]

This could be a state that has a pretty decent swing towards Obama. Romney will still carry it by double digits though.

[minionofmidas]

Theory One: A swing back among Cajuns.

Theory Two: A junk poll.

[mondale84]

Obama is winning 22% of the white vote which is excellent news!

...and he's winning white Democrats!

Moving this state to lean Romney.

[Speed of Sound]

Theory One: A swing back among Cajuns.

Theory Two: A junk poll.

I'll take what's behind Theory #2, Lewis.

[ajb]

This is one of those class of polls where the percentage for the losing candidate looks pretty reasonable, but where it seems that somehow about a third of the winning candidate's eventual supporters inexplicably said they weren't sure.

[mondale84]

This is one of those class of polls where the percentage for the losing candidate looks pretty reasonable, but where it seems that somehow about a third of the winning candidate's eventual supporters inexplicably said they weren't sure.

It's because Southerners don't like Mitt Romney.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama will probably improve here, but not this much.

[Miles]

LOL no way.

[ajb]

This is one of those class of polls where the percentage for the losing candidate looks pretty reasonable, but where it seems that somehow about a third of the winning candidate's eventual supporters inexplicably said they weren't sure.

It's because Southerners don't like Mitt Romney.

They'll vote for him anyway.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

No chance.

[The Mikado]

These numbers aren't ridiculous with the caveat that the 16% undecided in Louisiana will break overwhelmingly for Mitt Romney.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So like 57-42 Romney?

[Niemeyerite]

These numbers aren't ridiculous with the caveat that the 16% undecided in Louisiana will break overwhelmingly for Mitt Romney.

Exactly. An undecided voter in the South means "I like Obama politics more, but he's black... So, Romney. Definitely".

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Louisiana President by Southern Media & Opinion Research on 2012-09-30

Summary: D: 39%, R: 45%, I: 0%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ajb]

These numbers aren't ridiculous with the caveat that the 16% undecided in Louisiana will break overwhelmingly for Mitt Romney.

Exactly. An undecided voter in the South means "I like Obama politics more, but he's black... So, Romney. Definitely".

More likely: "I don't really like Romney, and he doesn't seem conservative enough, but I don't like Obama, plus he's black, so in the end I'll vote for Romney."

[minionofmidas]

Theory One: A swing back among Cajuns.

Theory Two: A junk poll.

I'll take what's behind Theory #2, Lewis.

Oh, it is much the more realistic theory of course. -_-

[morgieb]

Interesting.