This CD has a Dem PVI of 1%, so if the poll is true, this is like viagra to the Pubs, and to Mittens in particular. However, the CD is volatile, and trended very heavily Dem in 2008 before bouncing back big in 2010.
A tie in this region of the state does not help Romney. Based on the polling, Obama is locked to win the 2nd, 3rd and 4th whild Romney is locked to win the 5th and 6th. A recent poll showed that Obama is up 11 points in the 7th. I have no idea what's going on in the 1st, I'd guess Romney is winning due to help from Ryan, but nothing too extreme as there are some very Democtract areas (Kenosha, Janesville and Raciene) in that district that will always keep it close on the presidential level. Romeny needs to do better in the 7th and 8th if he wants to win the the state.
Actually, the PVI is Dem +2% rather than 1%, so if Mittens is ahead by 1% in WI-08, that is a 2.5% swing from baseline, only about a point short of what is needed to carry a state that has a 3.4% Dem PVI, if the swing in WI-08 replicates the state as a whole.
