The Unskewed Polls Thread

[mondale84]

Since there have been many people complaining about the accuracy of the polls this year, I thought a thread where we can share the "real numbers" would be a good exercise for everyone.

Personally, I think President Obama is being shortchanged by the media pollsters because they want to give this race an aura of competitiveness.

This is how I see the race as of today (I adjusted the 538 numbers based on my view of recent poll bias):


Alaska 43 - 55.2
Alabama 39 - 60.2
Arkansas 41.7 - 56.4
Arizona 48.5 - 50.3
California 62.2 - 36.5
Colorado 53.8 - 45.2
Connecticut 59.3 - 39.7
DC 94.6 - 4.5
Delaware 63.3 - 35.8
Florida 53.1 - 46.3
Georgia 47.4 - 51.8
Hawaii 72 - 26.8
Iowa 53.8 - 44.9
Idaho 36.3 - 61.9
Illinois 62.6 - 36.1
Indiana 48.2 - 50.7
Kansas 42.6 - 56.1
Kentucky 43.8 - 55.1
Louisiana 43.2 - 55.8
Massachusetts 62.8 - 35.9
Maryland 62.7 - 36
Maine 59.9 - 38.5
              Maine - 1st CD 63.1 - 35.4
              Maine - 2nd CD 56.9 - 41.3
Michigan 56 - 42.5
Minnesota 55.8 - 42.4
Missouri 49 - 49.8
Mississippi 42.6 - 56.6
Montana 48.2 - 49.6
North Carolina 50.9 - 48.4
North Dakota 45.6 - 52.9
Nebraska 42.1 - 56.6
               Nebraska - 1st CD 45.2 - 53.5
               Nebraska - 2nd CD 49.3 - 49.2
               Nebraska - 3rd CD 31.9 - 66.9
New Hampshire 56.1 - 43
New Jersey 58.3 - 40.5
New Mexico 56.8 - 41.9
Nevada 54.9 - 43.8
New York 64.9 - 34.4
Ohio 54 - 44.7
Oklahoma 36.7 - 62.9
Oregon 58.6 - 39.4
Pennsylvania 55.5 - 43.3
Rhode Island 67.1 - 31.5
South Carolina 46.3 - 52.8
South Dakota 45.6 - 53
Tennessee 44.4 - 54.5
Texas 45.1 - 54.4
Utah 32.1 - 65.8
Virginia 53.2 - 45.9
Vermont 70.3 - 28.1
Washington 59.2 - 39.2
Wisconsin 55.2 - 44.1
West Virginia 45.2 - 53.3
Wyoming 35.8 - 62.5

NATIONAL PV 54.1 - 44.8

[Niemeyerite]

Can we ban him now?

[Likely Voter]

apparently this delusional hackery goes both ways

[mondale84]

Given the recent Drudge video controversy, and the dramatic turn in the race, I will have to modify my numbers to take this tape into account.


Alaska 13 - 85.2
Alabama 9 - 90.2
Arkansas 11.7 - 86.4
Arizona 18.5 - 80.3
California 32.2 - 66.5
Colorado 23.8 - 75.2
Connecticut 29.3 - 69.7
DC 64.6 - 34.5
Delaware 33.3 - 65.8
Florida 23.1 - 76.3
Georgia 17.4 - 81.8
Hawaii 42 - 56.8
Iowa 23.8 - 74.9
Idaho 6.3 - 91.9
Illinois 32.6 - 66.1
Indiana 18.2 - 80.7
Kansas 12.6 - 86.1
Kentucky 13.8 - 85.1
Louisiana 13.2 - 85.8
Massachusetts 32.8 - 65.9
Maryland 32.7 - 66
Maine 29.9 - 68.5
              Maine - 1st CD 33.1 - 65.4
              Maine - 2nd CD 26.9 - 71.3
Michigan 26 - 72.5
Minnesota 25.8 - 72.4
Missouri 19 - 79.8
Mississippi 12.6 - 86.6
Montana 18.2 - 79.6
North Carolina 20.9 - 78.4
North Dakota 15.6 - 82.9
Nebraska 12.1 - 86.6
               Nebraska - 1st CD 15.2 - 83.5
               Nebraska - 2nd CD 19.3 - 79.2
               Nebraska - 3rd CD 1.9 - 96.9
New Hampshire 26.1 - 73
New Jersey 28.3 - 70.5
New Mexico 26.8 - 71.9
Nevada 24.9 - 73.8
New York 34.9 - 64.4
Ohio 24 - 74.7
Oklahoma 6.7 - 92.9
Oregon 28.6 - 69.4
Pennsylvania 25.5 - 73.3
Rhode Island 37.1 - 61.5
South Carolina 16.3 - 82.8
South Dakota 15.6 - 83
Tennessee 14.4 - 84.5
Texas 15.1 - 84.4
Utah 12.1 - 95.8
Virginia 23.2 - 75.9
Vermont 40.3 - 58.1
Washington 29.2 - 69.2
Wisconsin 25.2 - 74.1
West Virginia 15.2 - 83.3
Wyoming 5.8 - 92.5

NATIONAL PV 24.1 - 74.8

[5280]

I was about to say, Mondale80, not being a hack for once.

[King]

Where did DC find the 35% angry white people to turn against Obama?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Come out of the closet, Mondale. It's okay to be a troll.

[independent-lefty]

AK 37.3 - 59.9
AL 40.1 - 58.8
AR 41.0 - 56.5
AZ 49.0 - 49.2
CA 58.7 - 39.3
CO 52.8 - 45.1
CT 53.9 - 44.3
DC 93.0 - 6.0
DE 59.8 - 38.3
FL 52.7 - 46.3
GA 49.3 - 49.7
HI 67.4 - 30.4
IA 52.2 - 46.1
ID 34.4 - 62.7
IL 59.9 - 38.8
IN 48.9 - 49.7
KS 40.9 - 56.9
KY 43.9 - 54.4
LA 44.0 - 54.4
MA 57.9 - 38.9
MD 59.9 - 37.8
ME 53.6 - 44.2
    ME-1 57.1 - 41.3
    ME-2 50.1 - 47.1
MI 54.1 - 44.1
MN 52.4 - 45.4
MO 48.8 - 49.7
MS 48.1 - 51.0
MT 47.6 - 48.9
NC 51.9 - 47.1
ND 43.8 - 53.6
NE 40.9 - 57.0
     NE-1 42.7 - 56.5
     NE-2 48.5 - 51.0
     NE-3 31.5 - 63.5
NH 51.9 - 46.9
NJ 53.6 - 45.0
NM 55.0 - 43.1
NV 53.4 - 44.0
NY 59.2 - 39.2
OH 52.9 - 45.3
OK 36.6 - 63.4
OR 53.5 - 43.2
PA 52.8 - 45.7
RI 59.0 - 38.0
SC 49.9 - 48.8
SD 43.6 - 54.1
TN 44.9 - 53.7
TX 48.9 - 50.1
UT 28.2 - 68.4
VA 53.8 - 45.1
VT 63.3 - 33.0
WA 54.6 - 42.6
WI 52.2 - 46.2
WV 44.6 - 52.4
WY 31.5 - 65.8

NATIONAL PV 52.5 - 45.9