Post 1st Debate: Who will win the Election?

[Likely Voter]

Its eerie how much this election is paralleling 2004. Like that one the incumbent came out of the conventions with a big lead all through September who then went on to lose his first debate. I suspect that Romney, like Kerry, will get a bump to tighten the race.

If Obama loses all three debates as badly as last night I think he could lose the election, but like Bush, I suspect he will do better in the next ones. Obama has got the message and the town hall is more suited for him, and should be able to win or draw the foreign policy debate. I dont really think the VP debate matters except for entertainment but Biden should do fine.

The problem for Romney is that he may tighten the race but, again like with Kerry, I don't see him winning OH (or enough states to compensate for losing OH).