Post 1st Debate: Who will win the Election?

[cavalcade]

Obama still leads.  The national polls may get closer, but my guess is that we are now at about Obama +1 and I certainly don't see Romney picking up 5 points in Ohio based on last night.  ~70% chance of Obama victory, down from ~80% 24 hours ago.
 
Now there is the VP debate, which probably won't matter.

Then there is the town hall debate, which I would call a tossup at this point.  Romney will be better prepared than Obama again, which likely does help, but the format won't be as good for him as last night was.  Telling Lehrer/Obama how much stuff you know is different from telling an individual voter how much stuff you know, and the probability of an Awkward Romney Gaffe is highest.  There will probably also be fewer economy questions and more social issues questions- Dems should be grateful that Lehrer didn't bring up women's issues and the like last night as Romney might have cleaned Obama's clock on those too.

Then there is the foreign policy debate, which (a) people likely won't vote on and (b) is not Romney's home turf, as the economy is.