PPP- Romney only getting small boost

[Devils30]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
In Wisconsin Obama/Romney 2 pts closer than it was on the first night of our last poll there

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Despite perception that he got creamed in the debate Obama only running about 1 pt worse than he did on the 1st night of our last VA poll

[Maxwell]

Exactly what I thought was going to happen, for a couple reasons:

1) A lot of people already have their mind set, even if Obama does crap in the debate, he still has those supporters. Now i'm not going all 47%, but a lot of people have their mind made up now on both sides. This really has been the election of the few.

2) Obama has been downgrading expectations this whole time, trying to make it seem like Romney was going to whop him anyways. The only person who didn't downgrade expectations for his party, even, was Chris Christie, who made it out so that if Romney didn't have a terrific performance, it was going to be a flop.

[wan]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
In Wisconsin Obama/Romney 2 pts closer than it was on the first night of our last poll there

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Despite perception that he got creamed in the debate Obama only running about 1 pt worse than he did on the 1st night of our last VA poll

Obama did a decent job and he didn't make any gaffes. But obviously Romney did a better job but he still didn't score a home run. So the ball game is just about where it should be.

[J. J.]

I think it takes a few day of reporting, commentary, jokes by Leno and Letterman, to really get into voter perception.  That said, I think Romney will improve, but I'm not expecting it to be a gigantic shift on that alone.

The job numbers could have a positive or negative effect on Romney's numbers.

[Likely Voter]

Well PPP's last WI and VA polls were before the 47% remark.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well PPP's last WI and VA polls were before the 47% remark.

True for VA, but WI was taken at the begining in the 47%

VA: Obama 51 - Romney 46

WI: Obama 52 - Romney 45

[Likely Voter]

47% video first posted on Mother Jones at 3PM (WI time) Sept. 17th, which was the second day of PPP's polling. Their tweet compared today to their first night of polling.

FWIW on Sept. 17th Obama's RCP avg was +2.8% nationally and was coming down off his DNC high of +3.6 a week earlier.

[Brittain33]

I think it takes a few day of reporting, commentary, jokes by Leno and Letterman, to really get into voter perception. 

Conan O'Brien featured the Big Bird story last night.

[Adam Griffin]

Anybody care to speculate on the (Thursday) results? I'm thinking 50/45 in VA, 49/46 in WI.

I think it's possible that quite a few independents could have been turned off by Romney's style at the debate. We can lament all we want about how the President performed, but the way in which a President conducts himself sets the tone and standard of the debate - deviations from said demeanor will be noticed. While some may have appreciated Romney's performance, I can imagine a sizable sum of people who may have felt his approach a tad 'aggressive' when considering the format of the debate - and when contrasting the content of Romney's positions with those that he has reiterated for months.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Romney gets only a 1 point boost.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anybody care to speculate on the (Thursday) results? I'm thinking 50/45 in VA, 49/46 in WI.

I think it's possible that quite a few independents could have been turned off by Romney's style at the debate. We can lament all we want about how the President performed, but the way in which a President conducts himself sets the tone and standard of the debate - deviations from said demeanor will be noticed. While some may have appreciated Romney's performance, I can imagine a sizable sum of people who may have felt his approach a tad 'aggressive' when considering the format of the debate - and when contrasting the content of Romney's positions with those that he has reiterated for months.

That's what I felt as well during the debate as well, and it's the reason why I perceived it as a draw. Still, the polls seem to suggest otherwise...

[Adam Griffin]

Anybody care to speculate on the (Thursday) results? I'm thinking 50/45 in VA, 49/46 in WI.

I think it's possible that quite a few independents could have been turned off by Romney's style at the debate. We can lament all we want about how the President performed, but the way in which a President conducts himself sets the tone and standard of the debate - deviations from said demeanor will be noticed. While some may have appreciated Romney's performance, I can imagine a sizable sum of people who may have felt his approach a tad 'aggressive' when considering the format of the debate - and when contrasting the content of Romney's positions with those that he has reiterated for months.

That's what I felt as well during the debate as well, and it's the reason why I perceived it as a draw. Still, the polls seem to suggest otherwise...

In addition, I also wonder how Romney's constant attempts to supersede Lehrer ("Let's talk about", "Let me finish", "let me go first", etc) were perceived by the undecideds - in particular, older undecideds who might have more respect for Lehrer than Romney apparently did.

[Gustaf]

Isn't comparisons with single nights of polling usually a pretty suspect thing to do?

Anyway, it should take a while for an event like this to have its full effect. It's not really the debate itself that one would expect to have an impact but rather the general atmosphere that results from it.

Still Obama's race to lose though.

[President von Cat]

Barack Obama looks set to get over 95% of all African American voters and could crack 70% with Hispanics. If his turnout machine can deliver, he will almost be guaranteed to win.

Did anything about Romney's performance raise the possibility that the president will perform worse with those two demographic groups? If not, how much change in the race should we expect?

[Torie]

Isn't comparisons with single nights of polling usually a pretty suspect thing to do?

Anyway, it should take a while for an event like this to have its full effect. It's not really the debate itself that one would expect to have an impact but rather the general atmosphere that results from it.

Still Obama's race to lose though.

This comment says it all - and says it just right.

[J. J.]

I think it takes a few day of reporting, commentary, jokes by Leno and Letterman, to really get into voter perception. 

Conan O'Brien featured the Big Bird story last night.

Letterman did a top ten list, after first saying that he was worried about Romney just showing up.

[J. J.]

Barack Obama looks set to get over 95% of all African American voters and could crack 70% with Hispanics. If his turnout machine can deliver, he will almost be guaranteed to win.

Did anything about Romney's performance raise the possibility that the president will perform worse with those two demographic groups? If not, how much change in the race should we expect?

Romney might be doing better with Hispanic women.

This article mentions the Walmart moms overall:  http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/walmart-moms-romney-won-debate-but-many-still-undecided-20121004

I saw this discussed on TV; about 20% are Hispanic, so there might be some movement toward Romney.

African American voters are going to be dependent on turnout; I won't have a guess until mid afternoon on election day.

[J. J.]

47% video first posted on Mother Jones at 3PM (WI time) Sept. 17th, which was the second day of PPP's polling. Their tweet compared today to their first night of polling.

FWIW on Sept. 17th Obama's RCP avg was +2.8% nationally and was coming down off his DNC high of +3.6 a week earlier.

I think you have to remember that there will be some lag between the release of some news and when it shows up in the polls.  Not everyone is tuned into the Internet and cable.

[Likely Voter]

47% video first posted on Mother Jones at 3PM (WI time) Sept. 17th, which was the second day of PPP's polling. Their tweet compared today to their first night of polling.

FWIW on Sept. 17th Obama's RCP avg was +2.8% nationally and was coming down off his DNC high of +3.6 a week earlier.

I think you have to remember that there will be some lag between the release of some news and when it shows up in the polls.  Not everyone is tuned into the Internet and cable.

Clearly (or at least I thought so) that was the point I was making. PPP's new polling shows Romney doing better than he was doing before the 47% thing, which is pretty good for Romney.