French UMP leadership election, 2012

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Battle of letters now!

Copé made an official letter in which he asks Fillon to make a choice between the group and the referendum.

Fillon also made an official letter (!), to tell Copé that they gonna freeze the money of their new group till a solution is found and before an eventual come back to the main group, he also accepts the referendum only there is a collective direction of the UMP till the vote, instead of Copé's, and effectively asks to be organized by an external organization, by Internet, without proxies, and before the end of the year.

Copé camp says they accept all those conditions...but!...not to let the lead of the direction of the UMP.

So, so far, it's Fillon blocking by his group and by his demand of collective direction...

It really turns ridiculous...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

It's a total...

Bataille de tranchées

Very violent fight to only gain inches of ground, and in the end there both losing a lot of forces.

Popular opinion aren't fond of those kinds of fights generally, are they?

But hey, I just hear the big general would have spoken.

It's being reported that Sarkozy would have written something that he communicated to both camps, and this thing would be saying that if they didn't agree on the conditions of a referendum before 18h30, this communiqué could be published, and according to a close relative of Sarkozy who gave this information, what's in it would be...scary.

So let's see...

Maybe they should inspire themselves about that...
(best anti-war song I've heard...)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And meanwhile the PS can quietly lead an other trench battle...

And also...









And also...

And FN enjoys bitching about how they are the only ones credible to be the 1st opponents now, Borloo making it in a more subtle style too...

New UMP anthem: Vas-y Francky c'est bon!

I'm actually alternating phases of incredibility and desperate laugh...

Come to think about it, Copé has made 3 official winning declarations, and hasn't still officially won!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Damn it.

This whole thing might have done its 1st casualty. 1 dead person.

Tonight, the managing editor of Le Monde, Erik Izraelewicz, died, heart attack.

(sorry, couldn't resist doing it...)

So, Sarkozy didn't publish his threatening communiqué. But well, journalists gave what would have been in it if you believe them, they say he would have officially said how he was totally ashamed by what was going on and that none of them were statesmen.

Situation is still blocked around Fillon conditions though:

Collective direction instead of Copé's
Maintain of his group so far

Tonight, Christian Jacob, leader of the UMP MP group was saying that he couldn't imagine Fillon maintains his group, because it would like the 1st step toward the split of the party, which is indeed relevant.

Maybe this night will help everybody, in case that's still possible...

In any case they have already both lost in the national public opinion, it's really pitiful, only Sarkozy can, in case that's still possible, save this 'thing' still called UMP...

Ah, and, a debate is slowly growing now.

After the Assemblée Nationale, then the Sénat, now this thing is touching the Conseil Constitutionnel...

...of which you can enjoy the front door here, fancy, isn't it?

The Conseil Constitutionnel is made, amongst other people, of all the former presidents still alive (I saw Giscard on TV yesterday, wow, he seems closer and closer to lose this job, you never know though, intellectually he seems still pretty fine, and lol, when you know how Chirac mind is going lately, what a glorious institution we have here!) but back to those the one of which the biology isn't so bad yet...

...and that we can mainly see this way or when he enters from a car to a house or the opposite, precisely because of the debate that is slowly growing...) and those former Présidents de la République have a duty of confidentiality over political affairs. And so there we go, Sarkozy is step by step being everywhere in this affair but can't make loud official declaration and avoid the media the most he can, which, lol, participates to make all of this still more totally unusual.

That being said, I remember that during last national political campaigns Giscard was regularly invited to give his opinion about what was going on, the limit might be to not take part in stuffs, but debates going on about where the limit would be...

Not sure this debate could go still bigger but that's one more aspect of this affair which would be far to represent only the crisis of the French Right...

Biggest French political party, Assemblée, Sénat, Conseil Constitutionnel...

What's next step?

Hollande govt to be split between pro-Copés and and pro-Fillons??

Hollande taking part for one, Ayrault for the other one??

Division of Europe over it??

Ban Ki Moon to intervene??

Obama??

Putin??

China??

Life on Mars??

Well, isn't France the center of anything anyhow?

Frankly it sometimes totally look like in an Astérix. Actually. THe point being that in Astérix it's pretty fun, it's a book, but here it's freaking real! Ah and indeed Copé totally looks like a Romain, and Fillon like a good old Gaulois, but both in some villain roles.

I can't decide which one would be the most fitting, here are those that strike my mind right now:





Or maybe:



Tell me if you have better propositions...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So, last news...

Several proposals of several persons continued today apparently, but, at one point, Copé had given an ultimatum to Fillon to withdraw his group, 15h.

At 15h, the group was indeed maintained, so Michèle Tabarot, n°3 of Copé direction officially intervened to say that, now this is over. Copé is president, he stops all negotiations and he gonna do what he has been elected for, his job of opponent. Period.

Referendum is over then.

Later, Tardy, one of the biggest Fillon MPs, reacted as if everything was normal, saying that they're still asking for a new vote about the presidency within the 3 months, and that their group will continue as long as this doesn't happen.

The itélé reporter said that lot of Fillon and Copé MPs were actively speaking together after Tabarot announcement though.

Earlier in the day, you had an other UMP 'group', the 'non-alignés', which is, lol, the same French name than...

That's a group that want to be neither Copé, nor Fillon, but they are 'unionist', want to keep the unity of the party, it's led by Bruno Le maire...



...and Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet...



...who are the biggest figureheads of the young guard of that still existing stuff, they can also be seen as the most constructive figureheads, in this whole mess, and politically too. Interesting to notice, they would be the less inclined people of the party to follow Copé populistic positions toward far-right, some of Sarkozy stances when he was president were already hard to swallow for them. Juppé is said as being part of them. It's kinda the 'centrists of the UMP'. Globally they'd be more Fillon than Copé politically I'd say. Lol, I'm hearing Apparu, part of this group, still calling for the glorious referendum right now...

What can be interesting is that this group is about 50 MPs.

So you have the 68-70 who are already behind Fillon and apparently to follow him till Nouvelle-Calédonie.

Those 50 MPs, who are neutral, and who would hardly be in line with Copé positions but who are still calling for unity. You can't know about the solidity of this group though.

And then it would make 77 MPs who can be definitely pro-Copés.

Earlier in the day, you had a vote in the UMP Sénat group, 112 UMP Sénateurs out of 120 have voted to follow Fillon line, and to ask for a new vote for the presidency.

As a journalist say seems we are in a:

BALKANIZATION!...of the UMP. They should beware before using this word, because having a Balkanic war in a party with Balkanys, dangerous.

There we are...

Totally blocked...

No Sarkozy intervention so far...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And let's try to see how people enjoy all of this:

Made by TNS-Sofres-Sopra Group for Le Figaro

The question is: 'Do you wish such or such plays a major role into politics?'

'Sympathisants UMP' is not UMP militants, it's wider than that, those who sympathize with UMP.

'Ensemble de Français' is all French.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And look this so far discrete inflammable decision taken by Hollande govt today:

http://www.metrofrance.com/info/prix-de-l-essence-bercy-vigilant/mlkB!vgQM3VHh69OTg/

Some tax reductions on gas were planned to be over on Friday, there was a question about continuing reductions for people who have the less money, proposition abandoned, no more tax reductions.

Oh, and look, there is an other one that can be pretty controversial:

http://www.leparisien.fr/flash-actualite-politique/immigration-valls-publie-de-nouveaux-criteres-pour-regulariser-les-sans-papiers-28-11-2012-2362523.php

Valls publishes today the new future rules for immigration, thankfully better than Sarkozy's (of which some were pretty shameful) but tougher than what Hollande said during his campaign (and of which some can still be considered opened to criticism).

Not that a majority of French would be frustrated to have tighter rules on immigration than what was announced (which already was a kind of surrendering to nowadays populism regarding this), it would even rather be the opposite, but militant associations regarding those topics kind be pretty active and demonstrative, I guess it's better for the govt to avoid the most mess possible...

They should go fast if they have other controversial decisions to take! UMP mess seems to slowly go lower now!...(well...so far).

So, last news...

Several proposals of several persons continued today apparently, but, at one point, Copé had given an ultimatum to Fillon to withdraw his group, 15h.

At 15h, the group was indeed maintained, so Michèle Tabarot, n°3 of Copé direction officially intervened to say that, now this is over. Copé is president, he stops all negotiations and he gonna do what he has been elected for, his job of opponent. Period.

What Fillon has been elected for, surely?

President of the RUMP.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

It's 1917!

American troops came in!

Yeah, some young unexperimented troops, but numerous and full of good will, the Non-Alignés, officially joined the fight.

This morning a communiqué of 139 MPs called for some new elections.

Those 139 are the now 71 R-UMP (according to the last news I heard), and the Non-Alignés, which would make 78 non-alignés, which would now make only 56 Copé MPs!

Fillon, like Clémenceau, decided to directly push his advantage further, announcing the creation of a working group of about 10 people madé of Copés, Fillons, and N-As, to work on the organization of future elections.

And, moreover, yesterday evening, you had 6 federations of Eastern France calling for the 'Elders Commission', something already present in UMP rules, to be constituted in order to also wonder to new elections, they said:

'30 people became crazy in Paris and are taking our party in hostage. We don't want Copé! We don't want Fillon! We want a united UMP!'

It makes...

139 out of 195 MPs
112 out of 131 Sénateurs
6 federations

...all calling for new elections.

And Sarkozy and Copé have lunche dtogether today, and I'm just hearing that, according to journalists both men could have agreed on a new vote!

Sane forces are taking over!

All of this would play in favor of Fillon, if a new vote actually occurs, it would be a 1st defeat for Copé. Moreover, maybe Fillon wouldn't even run again in a new vote, just like he said on his TF1's 20h, he said he was no more interested in UMP presidency but in making the truth and the justice win. While Copé always appeared as the guy who had the appearing legitimacy for him but also who wanted the job at all costs. Fillon could in the end appear like the tough warrior who only fought for the sake of his family, which would reinforce his presidential status for next presidential elections.

Meanwhile, it could very end be the N-As who would finish winners of a new vote, because that have been the only ones to always preach for unity above presidency, especially if Fillon doesn't run, and especially since Juppé is their biggest figurehead, the good old wise man, and moreover someone to which Fillon camp always said they would let the presidency.

Copé losing over Fillon-Juppé would also be Sarkozyste rupture losing over traditional Gaullisme-RPR, which would pretty much fit the mood of the country which chose Hollande, a rather quiet, reassuring, and saner political class, after the oddities of Royal-Sarkozy era...

If it's 1917, it would mean that 1918 is not far!

That being said, if Fillon acts too much like a Clémenceau, and that Copé finish in the end totally humiliated, they should beware not to create a 1933, or worse, latter, a 1939...

But whatever, today is a present day, maybe it was for the last figurehead of Gaullisme-RPR...

80 years today!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Waterloo ! Waterloo ! Waterloo ! morne plaine !
Comme une onde qui bout dans une urne trop pleine,
Dans ton cirque de bois, de coteaux, de vallons,
La pâle mort mêlait les sombres bataillons.
D'un côté c'est l'Europe et de l'autre la France.
Choc sanglant ! des héros Dieu trompait l'espérance ;
Tu désertais, victoire, et le sort était las.

Victor Hugo



Le calme après la tempête

...if you allow me to telescope 2 different parts of History.

...less flattering for French here though.

So yeah, it's like a silence after (and before?) a battle today...

Yesterday evening you had Christian Jacob, leader of the UMP MP group, not only pro-Copé but quite close of Copé who said he was ready to work with Fillon working group on new elections, to which you can add Sarkozy who apparently pushed Copé to go for new elections, this plus the fact that N-As group would include some Sarkozystes who showed as Copé so far (Balkany!), more than ever, Copé is alone today, and shows as the guy entrenched in his castle, Rue de Vaugirard, 2 days ago, when he said all negotiations were over he already began to try to make a lot of criticisms on Hollande, now he is totally invisible...

Today, a pro-Fillon, Joyandet, even said Copé could eventually keep the presidency till a new vote, Joyandet might as well only represent his opinion, but it would show that Copé is considered as less and less important...

Regularly, each time a new vote is evoked, the time limit which is evoked is one year.

Nothing is decided though so far, Rethondes is not already here, and while Copé hasn't yet surrendered, close relatives of him said he wanted to hear nothing about a new vote yesterday evening, Sainte-Héléne seems closer and closer for him...

Our true Napoléon though...

(...gosh, how come can I post a cover of this so called 'The Economist', lol, 'France's chance'...)

...has played pretty well so far, and it's amusing to see his troops moving here and there with the evolution of the conflict...

I still think the N-As/Juppé could finish winners of this on the short term, and I've been surprised how high Fillon succeeds to stay quite high in UMP sympathizers polls, but it would effectively fit nowadays' mood in France, to go toward a more classical political class, but how it could turn in 5 years could be quite different, and the true Napoléon isn't in Sainte-Héléne yet, only in...

...Ile d'Elbe Cap Nègre

The next elections, Municipales 1st, that could have already been quite good for the new FN before all this could be still better for them now (anything better than 1995 would be seen as a victory for MLP, I remember in 1995, for town halls, 3 small cities and a big one, and he was like 'FN won elections!!', was kinda something, and MLP seems to be able to do better than her father at any level...), notably through the alliances they could try to set in order to screw still more UMP coherence and solidity, especially if this becomes led by centrists of the party in between...

Européennes then, in which both, the new FN 1st, especially if Euro Zone doesn't seem to be safe and/or the classical political class tries to go toward further European integration, which seems to be what is more or less planned, UMP or PS, and one more time still more if UMP is led by N-As/Juppé direction, extremist electorates use not to care about those elections but if the European context is special, you never know, and the UDI then, which outside of a lack of coherence and solidity in the UMP could also benefit of the disappearing of Europe Ecologie, to become the big centrist force of this election, of which the usual electorate is the centrist one, the both could make big enough scores, and maybe the both bigger ones than UMP, because both of have clear lines, and with a more and more controversial topic like Europe people might prefer clear positions

We'll see though, 2 years are long, especially nowadays where crazy stuffs can happen every once in a while...

That being said, maybe Régionales-Départementales 2015 could eventually be favorable for what the classical right would have become in between (if it still exists! ^^), we don't even know what kind of scrutiny it will be since the last reform has been canceled a few days ago, but wow, if MLP does better than her father it would mean it would be more messy than 1998! Would also be something if so, was messy, and the PS might eventually play with that with the scrutiny they gonna choose. But then we speak about something coming in 3 years, becomes unreasonable...

In all cases, not really good perspectives for UMP so far on the longer term...

Anyways today is silencious, even the 24h media began to become bored with that, and all the UMP figureheads are hiding and discussing behind the scene, maybe it took them 10-12 days to understand the pitiful show they were giving.

24h media, and I guess classical media will follow, also found a new bone back an old bone with still a bit of meat on it (which isn't easy since it's the been the most covered stuff ever worldwide! more than 9/11...), but still, it remains bit of meat on that...

...bone (couldn't resist )

Hollande really gets lucky nowadays...

Ah, and very last hot news, Sarkozy would have strongly intervened, again, to tell both men that now they have to find a solution, the new vote still seems to be the only proposal, both camps seems to more and more find ways...

It is said an encounter could happen between Copé and Fillon on Monday, and in between both camps could eventually hold a political meeting each, Tuesday would be a kind of ultimatum date, this is when the R-UMP would have to officially sit and overall ask its own questions or not, this is when the symbolic rupture will happen, or not.

So far I'd say it goes toward a new vote.

It would have been fancy to have a national Néo-Calédonien political party though...

...and then you can see that Fillon really embodies the classical RPR line...



...les îles...

And then if Nouvelle-Calédonie would have broken up in 2014 we could have had a total secession of the UMP! Fillon running for presidency of Nouvelle-Calédonie! Raising an army! Coming back to France to oust Copé! One more Napoléon! And maybe one more Waterloo then too...And in the end, who wins? Anglos!

Bloody French Right, so Napoleonian, the N-As winning would be a good thing...

Poor Copé though...

And in my dream, Copé declared himself president of the UMP 3 times!

Each time I think about it, it makes me laugh, 3 official victory declarations and could lose in the end!