Kerry killed Bush on 09/30/04

[J. J.]

massacred him

His performance was good, but Bush's performance was not bad. 

Obama's performance was arguably on a level of GHW Bush in 1992.

[J. J.]

massacred him

His performance was good, but Bush's performance was not bad. 

Obama's performance was arguably on a level of GHW Bush in 1992.

This convenient revisionism is getting really, really grating... G W Bush was horrible, you want to think otherwise, feel free, but you'd be wrong.

Not at the GHW Bush (1992) or Carter(1980) levels.  This thing was close to Bush 1992 (though not quite as bad).

[J. J.]

Gallup gave 2004 numbers:

Kerry:  53

Bush:  37

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-30-debate-poll.htm

Obama would consider it a gift from God if he only lost by a 16 point gap. 

[J. J.]

Gallup gave 2004 numbers:

Kerry:  53

Bush:  37

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-30-debate-poll.htm

Obama would consider it a gift from God if he only lost by a 16 point gap. 

You really have turned into 'one of them'...

No, just not doing revisionist history, like you. 

I would question how much of a difference it will make in the poll numbers, but it is delusional to claim that this was just as bad as 2004.  CNN started polling in this in 1984 and they have had anyone winning a debate above 60%, until now.

[J. J.]

Gallup gave 2004 numbers:

Kerry:  53

Bush:  37

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-30-debate-poll.htm

Obama would consider it a gift from God if he only lost by a 16 point gap. 

You really have turned into 'one of them'...

No, just not doing revisionist history, like you. 

I would question how much of a difference it will make in the poll numbers, but it is delusional to claim that this was just as bad as 2004.  CNN started polling in this in 1984 and they have had anyone winning a debate above 60%, until now.

Wow... deflection... you've been studying Politico's techniques...

A sanp poll does reflect something, that's true... but what matters is how people react to the outcome... that is something we don't know.

No, I'm just researching and frankly, can remember 2004.  You seem to have difficulties with both.

I have made the point, repeatedly, that winning the debate, even by such a huge margin, may not move the poll numbers too much.

[J. J.]

I know you're used to dealing with 14 year olds on here, but I was 21 and watched every single debate in 2004 as well 1996, 2000 and 2008, as well as the post-debate analyses.

Then you obviously forgot what happened.

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The media, in many ways, created Obama, and they finally saw the Frankenstein's Monster they created.  It wasn't pretty.  

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While I saw both trending that way, I'll agree with you on FL and NC; I don't know about the bump.

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In terms of the style, this was close to 1992, though it didn't move the numbers.

[J. J.]

This could literally go on for days... let's just agree to disagree...

Well, you have the numbers from 2004 and you have the numbers from 2012, both CNN polls.  I think you can do the math. 

[J. J.]

This could literally go on for days... let's just agree to disagree...

Well, you have the numbers from 2004 and you have the numbers from 2012, both CNN polls.  I think you can do the math. 

UGH...

I look at the actual numbers, not at opinion.

[J. J.]

Yes and no, you extrapolate facts to make a point that might not even be there.

you cannot compare polling from one year to another, unless they are actually based on the same methodolgy and reflect the particular electorate they're trying to guage.

I would need to look in the background of the 2004 poll... and there are representative issues in the CNN poll this year... but since I'm not umengus, I won't go into it.

Plus my flight is about to board, and I want another glass of wine beforehand...

There were the same representative "issues" in 2004, which is why I tried to go poll to poll, and why I used CNN, which also made the comparison.  Face it, the numbers do not support your premise. 

Now, will that translate into poll movement?  Probably, but I'm not willing to speculate on how much.  I would be stunned if Romney got a 42 point lead in the polls.

[J. J.]

Stop giving Mensa a bad name, J.J.

You have the numbers.  This was more devastating than 2004, in terms of debate performance being rated independently, whether by CBS or by CNN.  CNN said that was the greatest margin they've seen since they started taking this poll in 1984, which I think would include 2004.

Now 2004 translated into about a 1 point net gain for Kerry in the polls.  I suspect this will have a positive effect on Romney's numbers, though I'm not it expecting this to totally destroy Obama.