Florida: Rasmussen: Romney +2
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Author Topic: Florida: Rasmussen: Romney +2  (Read 691 times)
MorningInAmerica
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« on: October 05, 2012, 12:19:26 PM »
« edited: October 05, 2012, 10:20:47 PM by Dave Leip »
Link

Obama: 47%
Romney: 49%

Obama was ahead 48-46% in the last Florida poll from 2 weeks ago.

With Independents:
Obama: 25%
Romney: 47%

W/ Democrats:
Obama: 85%
Romney: 14%

W/ Republicans:
Obama: 22%
Romney: 76%

Party ID=R+5.

Obama's unusual strength with Republicans in this poll is a large part of the reason that  Romney only leads by 2, despite a 22 point lead with Independents.
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Reds4
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2012, 12:26:02 PM »
Wow, that's a really strange sample right there. Too GOP friendly at +5 on party ID.. and the numbers for independents and Republicans have to be off.. this makes it look like a ton of Independents are undecided and a 1/4 of GOP is voting for Obama. Looks like a bad poll to me.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2012, 12:26:47 PM »
Rasmussen is bad at his job.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2012, 12:46:31 PM »
Quote from: Reds4 on October 05, 2012, 12:26:02 PM
Wow, that's a really strange sample right there. Too GOP friendly at +5 on party ID.. and the numbers for independents and Republicans have to be off.. this makes it look like a ton of Independents are undecided and a 1/4 of GOP is voting for Obama. Looks like a bad poll to me.

Party ID is not a demographic variable.

Party ID is not a demographic variable.

Party ID is not a demographic variable.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2012, 01:25:24 PM »
Quote from: ChrisFromNJ on October 05, 2012, 12:46:31 PM
Quote from: Reds4 on October 05, 2012, 12:26:02 PM
Wow, that's a really strange sample right there. Too GOP friendly at +5 on party ID.. and the numbers for independents and Republicans have to be off.. this makes it look like a ton of Independents are undecided and a 1/4 of GOP is voting for Obama. Looks like a bad poll to me.

Party ID is not a demographic variable.

Party ID is not a demographic variable.

Party ID is not a demographic variable.


You don't find the cross-party appeal on both sides bizarre? How often does a Dem pull 20% of Republican voters for a contested federal race, much less do so and still be losing narrowly?
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2012, 01:28:27 PM »
Quote from: brittain33 on October 05, 2012, 01:25:24 PM
Quote from: ChrisFromNJ on October 05, 2012, 12:46:31 PM
Quote from: Reds4 on October 05, 2012, 12:26:02 PM
Wow, that's a really strange sample right there. Too GOP friendly at +5 on party ID.. and the numbers for independents and Republicans have to be off.. this makes it look like a ton of Independents are undecided and a 1/4 of GOP is voting for Obama. Looks like a bad poll to me.

Party ID is not a demographic variable.

Party ID is not a demographic variable.

Party ID is not a demographic variable.


You don't find the cross-party appeal on both sides bizarre? How often does a Dem pull 20% of Republican voters for a contested federal race, much less do so and still be losing narrowly?


...by winning Independents by 22 points. That is offsetting Obama's large perentage with Republicans. Having said that, neither Obama nor Romney are consolidating their bases very well in this poll. Certainly seems odd.
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Umengus
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2012, 04:42:50 PM »
Quote from: MorningInAmerica on October 05, 2012, 12:19:26 PM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/platinum/election_2012_state_polls/florida/crosstabs_florida_president_october_4_2012 *platinum only*

Obama: 47%
Romney: 49%

Obama was ahead 48-46% in the last Florida poll from 2 weeks ago.

With Independents:
Obama: 25%
Romney: 47%

W/ Democrats:
Obama: 85%
Romney: 14%

W/ Republicans:
Obama: 22%
Romney: 76%

Party ID=R+5.

Obama's unusual strength with Republicans in this poll is a large part of the reason that  Romney only leads by 2, despite a 22 point lead with Independents.

Strange

R will not win I by 22 but will not lose 22 % of republicans to Obama. ALl in all, the final result is quite possible.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2012, 10:19:32 PM »
New Poll: Florida President by Rasmussen on 2012-10-04

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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