OH: Rasmussen: Obama +1
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  OH: Rasmussen: Obama +1
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Author Topic: OH: Rasmussen: Obama +1  (Read 1570 times)
MorningInAmerica
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« on: October 05, 2012, 09:16:21 AM »
« edited: October 05, 2012, 09:30:04 AM by Dave Leip »

Link

Obama: 50%
Romney: 49%

W/ Ohio Independents:

Obama: 40%
Romney: 58%

Party ID = D+3
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Edu
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2012, 09:19:46 AM »

Obama +1, just like the last Rasmussen poll
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2012, 09:24:21 AM »

I really don't want to be 'that' person, but does D+3 make sense?
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2012, 09:29:46 AM »

New Poll: Ohio President by Rasmussen on 2012-10-04

Summary: D: 50%, R: 49%, I: 1%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2012, 09:31:08 AM »

Obama +1, just like the last Rasmussen poll

When was this poll actually conducted.  Scotty seems so ridiculously off the mark because 9/12 was right after the Dem convention and this one is right after the debate... and there's no change?  More peculiarities from Scotty. 

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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2012, 09:31:59 AM »

I really don't want to be 'that' person, but does D+3 make sense?

Again, I thought party ID was totally irrelevant to all of you. Where's Craigo when we really need him to remind us how stupid we all are?

But since you asked, sure, D+3 is feasible. It was D+8 in '08, EVEN in 2010, D+3 in '06, and R+ 5 in '04. So yeah, D+3 "makes sense."

But remember, you're stupid for talking about party ID. An amateur (j/k, of course Wink
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2012, 09:34:40 AM »

FTR - I'm trying to figure out where the numbers are coming from and how representative they - not saying they're wrong...
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2012, 09:55:58 AM »

Exactly inverse 2004 now.  Very curious.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2012, 10:12:19 AM »

I really don't want to be 'that' person, but does D+3 make sense?

It probably is close, higher than Rasmussen and lower than PPP.
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GLPman
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2012, 10:13:34 AM »

Exactly inverse 2004 now.  Very curious.

Just what I was thinking. I'd guess that Ohio is going to be extremely close between now and election day.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2012, 11:22:39 AM »

So no change from immediately after the DNC? I'll happily take that.
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Umengus
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2012, 04:32:52 PM »

I really don't want to be 'that' person, but does D+3 make sense?

amateur lol Wink
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2012, 09:22:57 PM »

Perhaps my decision to vote in Ohio will be a good one after all Grin

I was starting to wonder if I would have been better off voting in Wisconsin for a while there.
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J. J.
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2012, 09:26:51 PM »

I really don't want to be 'that' person, but does D+3 make sense?

No, but someplace between PPP and Rasmussen would make sense.
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Devils30
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2012, 09:35:27 PM »

No it doesn't because PPP has a proven track record of very accurate polling while Rasmussen produced ridiculous GOP leaning garbage.
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J. J.
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2012, 10:26:14 PM »

No it doesn't because PPP has a proven track record of very accurate polling while Rasmussen produced ridiculous GOP leaning garbage.

They are both good pollsters, but each has a house bias.  The numbers between those two polls are 3 points.  If PPP leans slightly to the D's and Rasmussen to the R's, these numbers make sense.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2012, 10:59:25 PM »

I really don't want to be 'that' person, but does D+3 make sense?

No, but someplace between PPP and Rasmussen would make sense.

To the exclusion of various other pollsters showing Obama's lead even wider than PPP did.
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J. J.
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« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2012, 12:05:38 AM »

I really don't want to be 'that' person, but does D+3 make sense?

No, but someplace between PPP and Rasmussen would make sense.

To the exclusion of various other pollsters showing Obama's lead even wider than PPP did.

Which ones, the mail poll, the university poll, the polls that more than 10 days old, or WAA?

Except for certain uni polls, in specific states or regions, they tend to be crap.  We have the 2012 version of "Landslide Landon," with the Dispatch mail poll.  We have WAA, which isn't a good poll (and shows Romney carrying the state).  So, we have two good polls, PPP and Rasmussen.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2012, 12:12:22 AM »

I really don't want to be 'that' person, but does D+3 make sense?

Again, I thought party ID was totally irrelevant to all of you. Where's Craigo when we really need him to remind us how stupid we all are?

But since you asked, sure, D+3 is feasible. It was D+8 in '08, EVEN in 2010, D+3 in '06, and R+ 5 in '04. So yeah, D+3 "makes sense."

But remember, you're stupid for talking about party ID. An amateur (j/k, of course Wink

This shift in party ID between polls due to Romney's standing increasing suddenly seems to be completely attributable to the factors explained to us by Craigo. So I don't see your point
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