A black can't win a close election

[opebo]

I'm afraid that Obama's election in 2008 was entirely about voters in the middle (virtually all of whom are white of course) choosing to vote for him despite their preference for a white, because of an overwhelming reason - the Republicans had just destroyed the economy.

Now, in 2012, there is no overwhelming reason to vote for a black (of course, the Republicans will destroy the economy again, eventually, but this is impossible for most swing voters to understand). Without the overwhelming reason of a crisis or a white opponent who is clearly antipathetic to them, there is no way that these white working class voters will preference a black.

As Politico has said, all Romney needed to do was appear 'not a monster', and he is right, though he doesn't give the right reason.  The reason is racism.  White working class swing voters flirted with voting Obama when Romney was seen as the epitome of the class which is destroying them, but now that they saw him, a white man in a suit, lying well and in a soothing tone, next to a black - well, its all over with them.

The key is - seeing a black next to a white.  It is that simple I'm afraid:

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Just relax... I'm actually pretty confident you're going to be proven wrong... just as you were in 2008...

[opebo]

Just relax... I'm actually pretty confident you're going to be proven wrong... just as you were in 2008...

Thanks, but that was as I say a kind of overwhelming wave - a wave that gave them a reason to set aside their racism for a moment.  That's not the case now.  I think I'm right.  Oh despair.

[John Dibble]

I won't bother digging for it but I'm pretty sure you probably said a black man wouldn't be elected to the presidency before the last election.

Anywho, stop trolling, and everyone else just stop feeding him.

[opebo]

I won't bother digging for it but I'm pretty sure you probably said a black man wouldn't be elected to the presidency before the last election.

Anywho, stop trolling, and everyone else just stop feeding him.

Its a valid analysis and a reasonable prediction, Dibble.  Just because I was wrong before doesn't mean my new theory isn't right.

I'm not the only one saying it.  Chris Matthews agrees./[url]  (I actually found this article after I arrived at my own conclusions)

[5280]

I won't bother digging for it but I'm pretty sure you probably said a black man wouldn't be elected to the presidency before the last election.

Anywho, stop trolling, and everyone else just stop feeding him.

Its a valid analysis and a reasonable prediction, Dibble.  Just because I was wrong before doesn't mean my new theory isn't right.

I'm not the only one saying it.  Chris Matthews agrees./[url]  (I actually found this article after I arrived at my own conclusions)

What if Herman Cain was running against Obama?  Would that cancel each other out?

[opebo]

What if Herman Cain was running against Obama?  Would that cancel each other out?

Obviously that would have been a very poor strategy, n'est-ce pas?

[RI]

Actually, empirical evidence suggests that, to the extent that there is a statistical effect, a black candidate running against a white candidate is more likely to win a close election than the white candidate.

[opebo]

Actually, empirical evidence shows that, to the extent that there is a statistical effect, a black candidate running against a white candidate is more likely to win a close election than the white candidate.

That depends entirely upon the nature of the electorate.  That paper focuses on congressional and urban elections.  State-by-state there are simply not enough states where the whites are either non-racist (think Oregon), or overwhelmed by larger minority groups (think New Mexico) to add up to a victory.

[RI]

Actually, empirical evidence shows that, to the extent that there is a statistical effect, a black candidate running against a white candidate is more likely to win a close election than the white candidate.

That depends entirely upon the nature of the electorate.  That paper focuses on congressional and urban elections.  State-by-state there are simply not enough states where the whites are either non-racist (think Oregon), or overwhelmed by larger minority groups (think New Mexico) to add up to a victory.

First of all, I don't know of any particular reason why one arbitrary unit of space (a congressional district) should be different from another (a state), especially since they didn't just consider minority-majority districts. Second, the paper found the starkest advantage for blacks in close interracial elections in the South--what you'd probably consider to be the most racist of electorates. The reasoning is differential turnout patterns in interracial elections.

[DrScholl]

Your trolling is almost as bad as Politico's.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

A old timer in my office today referred to Obama as "that shine"........opebo might have it right

[opebo]

First of all, I don't know of any particular reason why one arbitrary unit of space (a congressional district) should be different from another (a state), especially since they didn't just consider minority-majority districts. Second, the paper found the starkest advantage for blacks in close interracial elections in the South--what you'd probably consider to be the most racist of electorates. The reasoning is differential turnout patterns in interracial elections.

Obviously it all comes down to how big a minority of the whites are willing to vote for the Black.  So, this unusual type of white is perhaps more common in certain small regions than in, say a whole state.  The point is - it isn't going to work in Ohio, or Virginia, or Florida.

[opebo]

A old timer in my office today referred to Obama as "that shine"........opebo might have it right

Thanks Gramps.  Its only on the right that people are willing to look at the white american for what he is.

[Torie]

That class and racial lens through which you view the world is distorting your judgment is my opinion opebo. Not that it matters, but I consider Obama being black a plus, and I am turning against him having voted for him in 2008. I know, that is because of my class, right? The lens cannot be deflected; it's hard wired, at least as a performance act. Thanks for listening.

[opebo]

That class and racial lens through which you view the world is distorting your judgment is my opinion opebo. Not that it matters, I consider Obama being black and plus, and I am turning against him having voted for him in 2008. I know, that is because of my class, right? The lens cannot be deflected; it's hard wired, at least as a performance act. Thanks for listening.

Referring to oddballs does does not make a critique of the validity of my thesis, Torie, your good self included.   The white working class is a more prodigious and predictable piece of the pie than the pink pot smoking Pubbie.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A old timer in my office today referred to Obama as "that shine"........opebo might have it right

Thanks Gramps.  Its only on the right that people are willing to look at the white american for what he is.

And how did that 'old timer' vote in 2008?

[old timey villain]

You're so delightfully manic, Opebo. One minute you're sunshine and lollipops only to be followed by overwhelming gloom and sorrow. I think you're overreacting. The racial politics you speak of probably only work on people who were planning to vote for the GOP anyways. The southern strategy is more or less tapped out.

I mean, I live in Georgia, where Obama will be lucky to get even 25% of the white vote. But even I'm much more optimistic than you about the white vote nationwide. He'll hold onto his slice of the pie because if many of those white voters haven't abandoned Obama after years of brazen racial attacks, then he'll be fine for another month.

And, objectively speaking, when I look at your side by side pic of the candidates, I gotta say- Obama looks more trustworthy and cool.

[J. J.]

Opebo is wrong; just asked John Street (who I voted for).

[Ty440]

What race is Opebo? Does anyone know? Not that it's anyone business but he brings race up so much that I'm thinking he is black and has experienced a lot of racism.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Last time I checked, he white as a sheet living Thailand and believed Obama would lose in 2008, because he believed middle America was too racist...

[old timey villain]

Maybe it has to do with the fact that he's from Missouri, where we're seeing a realignment of rural white Democrats shifting to the GOP. It's not the swing state it used to be.

[Ty440]

Last time I checked, he white as a sheet living Thailand and believed Obama would lose in 2008, because he believed middle America was too racist...

Hey Opebo Obama is polling +95% of Blacks just over 70% of Hispanics and probably at least 60% of Asians.

He probably can squeak a win out with a meager 37.5% of the white vote if it comes down to it.

[old timey villain]

Last time I checked, he white as a sheet living Thailand and believed Obama would lose in 2008, because he believed middle America was too racist...

Hey Opebo Obama is polling +95% of Blacks just over 70% of Hispanics and probably at least 60% of Asians.

He probably can squeak a win out with a meager 37.5% of the white vote if it comes down to it.

Oh god I hope not. Talk about a racially charged election. I think Obama will stay above 40% of the white vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bradley Effect is back!

When Opebo and JJ agree on something, it's not a good sign.