Could the Democrats increase their Senate majority?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:20:26 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Could the Democrats increase their Senate majority?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Could the Democrats increase their Senate majority?  (Read 543 times)
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 07, 2012, 04:09:34 PM »

By most accounts, the House will pick up half or less of the needed 25 seats to take back the House of Representatives.  Could it be, though, that the Democrats increase their majority in the Senate by a seat or two?  Right now, they have a 6 seat majority.  Is there a viable path to get them to a 7 or 8 seat majority?
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2012, 04:14:57 PM »

By most accounts, the House will pick up half or less of the needed 25 seats to take back the House of Representatives.  Could it be, though, that the Democrats increase their majority in the Senate by a seat or two?  Right now, they have a 6 seat majority.  Is there a viable path to get them to a 7 or 8 seat majority?

Are we cutting Senators in half? Smiley
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2012, 04:17:01 PM »

The best conceivable outcome I can see for Democrats is them holding all their seats except Nebraska, while picking up MA, IN, AZ and NV (plus have King caucus with them). That would mean a net gain of 4 seats and a 57/43 Senate.

Of course, that would mean every close race breaking in favor of Democrats. That seems very unlikely to happen.

I think the best realistic result we can hope for is 55/45. This should be enough to survive in 2014, barring a 2010-like wave.
Logged
Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2012, 08:11:25 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2012, 08:13:21 PM by Ogre Mage »

The most likely outcome is Senate Democrats holding at 53 seats or going down to 52.  But there is a fair chance they could tick up to 54.

The simplest way I could see this happening is -- Democrats hold all their contested seats except Nebraska but pick up Maine and Mass.

Another possibility -- the Democrats lose Nebraska and North Dakota (or Montana), but pickup Maine, Mass. and Nevada.

If the Democrats lose Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana, then it starts to get pretty difficult.  It would require adding either Indiana or Arizona to the list of pickups and that doesn't seem likely.

The fact we can plausibly talk about this outcome is pretty amazing given how bad the senate map looked at the beginning of the year.

Logged
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2012, 09:27:27 AM »

The best conceivable outcome I can see for Democrats is them holding all their seats except Nebraska, while picking up MA, IN, AZ and NV (plus have King caucus with them). That would mean a net gain of 4 seats and a 57/43 Senate.

Of course, that would mean every close race breaking in favor of Democrats. That seems very unlikely to happen.

I think the best realistic result we can hope for is 55/45. This should be enough to survive in 2014, barring a 2010-like wave.

2014 should be another Republican wave, but 2016 should be a Democratic wave with the Senators who were election 2010 coming up for re-election.  Of course, 2014 and 2016 all depend on how the next Administration is doing.  If Obama wins this year and is doing poorly, 2014 and 2016 could be disaster for the Democrats.  If Romney wins and is doing poorly, 2014 and 2016 could be disaster for the Republicans.  Right now, I see Obama winning in 2012 and losing seats in the House and possibly the Senate in 2014 and 2016 being a wash with the Republicans gaining control of the White House, but with significant Democratic gains in the House and the Senate.  The increase in the House may be enough to put Steny Hoyer or Nancy Pelosi back in the Speakers chair come January 2017.  I see the Republicans holding the House at least for Obama's entire second term.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.033 seconds with 12 queries.