PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47

[Antonio the Sixth]

But party ID is not a demographic. Party ID is a person's choice, just like voting intentions. Saying that democrats are oversampled in a poll is like saying the poll is wrong because it puts Obama ahead.

Party ID, which in some way is a measure of attitudes, is a demographic, i.e. "a single vital or social statistic of a human population."  http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/demographic


It obviously is a "social statistic," much like religious preference.

Then voting intention is a "social statistic" as well.

[J. J.]

Important point -

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Keep hope alive, fellas.

This is the most important point made by this poll. The job's report killed Romney's bounce!

They polled psychics?  The jobs report came out Friday, yet they said the numbers from Thursday were like those of Saturday.

[J. J.]

Then voting intention is a "social statistic" as well.

How they voted in the previous election might be, as would if they voted.  Except in cases where they have acted on intention, like requesting an absentee ballot, it would be the statistic the poll was trying to measure.

Are you seriously arguing that party ID is comparable to religious preference now?

Lief, do you honestly think that religious preference isn't a social statistic?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That's the thing, everyone seems to be saying that Friday was Romney's best polling day, it's not surprising  because it depends when people poll, what their access to information was etc etc... Not everyone is as 'on' as us when it comes to political events.

It normally takes 24-48 hours for 'events' to filter it polling.

[traininthedistance]

WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites.

It's not the only one.

Now I'm wondering what other states we can think of where rural whites are more Dem than suburban whites.  The only slam-dunk cases that come to mind are New Hampshire (obviously) and probably Massachusetts, on the strength of Western MA (and the fact that most of the rest of the state really can't be called rural).

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites.

It's not the only one.

Now I'm wondering what other states we can think of where rural whites are more Dem than suburban whites.  The only slam-dunk cases that come to mind are New Hampshire (obviously) and probably Massachusetts, on the strength of Western MA (and the fact that most of the rest of the state really can't be called rural).

I'd be willing to say New England as a whole, though I could be wrong about Maine. Maybe parts of the Southwest, for certain definitions of 'rural'?

[Lief 🗽]

Minnesota, right? Connecticut too, pretty sure the NYC suburbs are more Republican than the rural areas.

Also it looks like possibly Indiana, at least in 2008:

[traininthedistance]

WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites.

It's not the only one.

Now I'm wondering what other states we can think of where rural whites are more Dem than suburban whites.  The only slam-dunk cases that come to mind are New Hampshire (obviously) and probably Massachusetts, on the strength of Western MA (and the fact that most of the rest of the state really can't be called rural).

I'd be willing to say New England as a whole, though I could be wrong about Maine. Maybe parts of the Southwest, for certain definitions of 'rural'?

Rural Maine is less democratic than Portland, and similarly Burlington is even stronger Dem than the rest of Vermont.  I could definitely see CT and RI as possibilities, though I don't know enough about what rural areas even exist in RI, or if eastern CT is Dem enough to make up for Litchfield.

I'm pretty sure that none of the Southwest states would actually qualify here: while there are pockets of liberal white rural voters around all the ski resorts, I'd have to assume they'd be outnumbered by conservatives in each state.

Hawaii might be a possibility too, come to think of it.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites.

It's not the only one.

Now I'm wondering what other states we can think of where rural whites are more Dem than suburban whites.  The only slam-dunk cases that come to mind are New Hampshire (obviously) and probably Massachusetts, on the strength of Western MA (and the fact that most of the rest of the state really can't be called rural).

I'd be willing to say New England as a whole, though I could be wrong about Maine. Maybe parts of the Southwest, for certain definitions of 'rural'?

Rural Maine is less democratic than Portland, and similarly Burlington is even stronger Dem than the rest of Vermont.

I'm thinking of Windham County as opposed to Rutland here because that's the part of Vermont I grew up in, but I suppose there are parts of Vermont considerably more rural even than Windham County, it being Vermont and all.

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It's not that rural, say, Arizona is particularly Democratic, I just wonder if it's not more Democratic even among whites than suburban Arizona.

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Possibly, depending on what qualifies as rural.

____


Oh, Minnesota, perhaps! Think about Bachmann's district as compared to the Iron Range.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm wondering if there are quite a few examples. Georgia has some examples of this trend; when you factor out suburbs in Georgia that have less than 80% white population, you see some slightly smaller Democratic vote tallies in the northern and southwestern suburbs of Atlanta when compared to nearby rural areas. You also see the same trend around Columbus, Augusta, and Savannah, with the rural areas becoming slightly more Democratic.

[LastVoter]

States that would fit the bill imo: HI, IN, MN, MI, OH(not 2008), WV(no real suburban areas though), NH, MA, CT, NY(this one is close though), SC, GA(black belt), NM, ID. A few more examples could be made up but those states often lack suburban or rural areas. I think this depends on how far you are willing to stretch the definitions of rural and suburban.

[memphis]

TN for sure. Suburban whites are much more likely to live in the small Deep South area near Memphis, while rural whites live in the less solid Upper South further East.

[Umengus]

Party id: D +6 (like in 2008)

Tied amongst independents: My opinion is that the winner of the independent vote will win the state.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why does the Atlas entry put Obama up by 4?